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Emergent Properties of Land Systems: Nonlinear Dynamics of Scottish Farming Systems from 1867 to 2020

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Listed:
  • Richard Aspinall

    (James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK)

  • Michele Staiano

    (Statistics Technology and Analysis of Data, Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Naples Federico II, 80125 Napoli, Italy)

  • Diane Pearson

    (Farmed Landscape Research Centre, School of Agriculture and Environment, College of Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North 4442, New Zealand)

Abstract

Dynamics of arable and pastoral farming systems in Scotland over the period 1867–2020 are documented using time series analysis methods, including for nonlinear dynamical systems. Results show arable and pastoral farming, at a national scale, are dynamic over a range of timescales, with medium- and short-term dynamics associated with endogenous system forces and exogenous factors, respectively. Medium-term dynamics provide evidence of endogenous systems-level feedbacks between farming sectors responding to change in world and national cereal prices as an economic driver, and act to dampen impacts of exogenous shocks and events (weather, disease). Regime shifts are identified in national cereal prices. Results show change and dynamics as emergent properties of system interactions. Changes in dynamics and strength of endogenous dampening over the duration of the study are associated with dynamical changes from major governmental policy decisions that altered the boundary conditions for interdependencies of arable and pastoral farming.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Aspinall & Michele Staiano & Diane Pearson, 2021. "Emergent Properties of Land Systems: Nonlinear Dynamics of Scottish Farming Systems from 1867 to 2020," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-27, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:11:p:1172-:d:670222
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    Cited by:

    1. Diane Pearson & Julian Gorman & Richard Aspinall, 2022. "Multiple Roles for Landscape Ecology in Future Farming Systems: An Editorial Overview," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-5, February.

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