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Pegxit pressure

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  • Mitchener, Kris James
  • Pina, Gonçalo

Abstract

We analyze whether trade shocks put pressure on pegs to break. Using new high-frequency data on prices and export portfolios from the classical gold standard era, we identify a negative causal relationship between export-price shocks and currency-risk premia in emerging market economies. The results indicate that negative export-price shocks increased the probability that countries would abandon their pegs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2020. "Pegxit pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:107:y:2020:i:c:s0261560620301479
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102191
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency risk; Commodity prices; Exchange-rate devaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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