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Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico

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  • Jessica Bravo-Cadena

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Área Académica de Biología, Carretera Pachuca-Tulancingo s/n, Cd. Universitaria, Pachuca 42184, Mexico)

  • Numa P. Pavón

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Área Académica de Biología, Carretera Pachuca-Tulancingo s/n, Cd. Universitaria, Pachuca 42184, Mexico)

  • Patricia Balvanera

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Antigua Carretera a Pátzcuaro # 8701, Ex-Hacienda de San José de la Huerta, Morelia 58190, Mexico)

  • Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Área Académica de Biología, Carretera Pachuca-Tulancingo s/n, Cd. Universitaria, Pachuca 42184, Mexico)

  • Ramón Razo-Zarate

    (Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Área Académica de Ciencias Agrícolas y Forestales, Av. Universidad Km.1, Ex hacienda de Aquetzalpa, Tulancingo 42000, Mexico)

Abstract

Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970–2000, and two future periods of time (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm 3 /year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm 3 /year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of ?15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica Bravo-Cadena & Numa P. Pavón & Patricia Balvanera & Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas & Ramón Razo-Zarate, 2021. "Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:4:p:1846-:d:499206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    2. Ruckelshaus, Mary & McKenzie, Emily & Tallis, Heather & Guerry, Anne & Daily, Gretchen & Kareiva, Peter & Polasky, Stephen & Ricketts, Taylor & Bhagabati, Nirmal & Wood, Spencer A. & Bernhardt, Joanna, 2015. "Notes from the field: Lessons learned from using ecosystem service approaches to inform real-world decisions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 11-21.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arellano Gonzalez Jesus, 2023. "Irrigation, Adaptation and Climate Change: Panel Data Evidence for Maize in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-05, Banco de México.

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