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Analysis of Superspreading Potential from Transmission Clusters of COVID-19 in South Korea

Author

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  • Hyojung Lee

    (Department of Statistics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea
    These authors contributed equally to this work and are co-first authors.)

  • Changyong Han

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104, Korea
    These authors contributed equally to this work and are co-first authors.)

  • Jooyi Jung

    (Department of Biostatistics, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Sunmi Lee

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104, Korea)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been spreading worldwide with more than 246 million confirmed cases and 5 million deaths across more than 200 countries as of October 2021. There have been multiple disease clusters, and transmission in South Korea continues. We aim to analyze COVID-19 clusters in Seoul from 4 March to 4 December 2020. A branching process model is employed to investigate the strength and heterogeneity of cluster-induced transmissions. We estimate the cluster-specific effective reproduction number R eff and the dispersion parameter κ using a maximum likelihood method. We also compute R m as the mean secondary daily cases during the infection period with a cluster size m . As a result, a total of 61 clusters with 3088 cases are elucidated. The clusters are categorized into six groups, including religious groups, convalescent homes, and hospitals. The values of R eff and κ of all clusters are estimated to be 2.26 (95% CI: 2.02–2.53) and 0.20 (95% CI: 0.14–0.28), respectively. This indicates strong evidence for the occurrence of superspreading events in Seoul. The religious groups cluster has the largest value of R eff among all clusters, followed by workplaces, schools, and convalescent home clusters. Our results allow us to infer the presence or absence of superspreading events and to understand the cluster-specific characteristics of COVID-19 outbreaks. Therefore, more effective suppression strategies can be implemented to halt the ongoing or future cluster transmissions caused by small and sporadic clusters as well as large superspreading events.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyojung Lee & Changyong Han & Jooyi Jung & Sunmi Lee, 2021. "Analysis of Superspreading Potential from Transmission Clusters of COVID-19 in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:24:p:12893-:d:696880
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. O. Lloyd-Smith & S. J. Schreiber & P. E. Kopp & W. M. Getz, 2005. "Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 355-359, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Junhwi Jeon & Changyong Han & Tobhin Kim & Sunmi Lee, 2022. "Evolution of Responses to COVID-19 and Epidemiological Characteristics in South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-20, March.

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