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Tactics and Strategies for Managing Ebola Outbreaks and the Salience of Immunization

Author

Listed:
  • Wayne M. Getz

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal - UKZN - University of KwaZulu-Natal [Durban, Afrique du Sud], ESPM - Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management [Berkeley] - UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California)

  • Jean-Paul Gonzalez

    (Metabiota Inc. [San Francisco])

  • Richard Salter

    (Oberlin College)

  • James Bangura

    (Metabiota Inc. [San Francisco])

  • Colin Carlson

    (ESPM - Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management [Berkeley] - UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California)

  • Moinya Coomber

    (Metabiota Inc. [San Francisco])

  • Eric Dougherty

    (ESPM - Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management [Berkeley] - UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California)

  • David Kargbo

    (Directorate of Disease Prevention and Control)

  • Nathan D. Wolfe

    (Metabiota Inc. [San Francisco])

  • Nadia Wauquier

    (CIMI - Centre d'Immunologie et de Maladies Infectieuses - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Metabiota Inc. [San Francisco])

Abstract

We present a stochastic transmission chain simulation model for Ebola viral disease (EVD) in West Africa, with the salutary result that the virus may be more controllable than previously suspected. The ongoing tactics to detect cases as rapidly as possible and isolate individuals as safely as practicable is essential to saving lives in the current outbreaks in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Equally important are educational campaigns that reduce contact rates between susceptible and infectious individuals in the community once an outbreak occurs. However, due to the relatively low of Ebola (around 1.5 to 2.5 next generation cases are produced per current generation case in naïve populations), rapid isolation of infectious individuals proves to be highly efficacious in containing outbreaks in new areas, while vaccination programs, even with low efficacy vaccines, can be decisive in curbing future outbreaks in areas where the Ebola virus is maintained in reservoir populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Wayne M. Getz & Jean-Paul Gonzalez & Richard Salter & James Bangura & Colin Carlson & Moinya Coomber & Eric Dougherty & David Kargbo & Nathan D. Wolfe & Nadia Wauquier, 2015. "Tactics and Strategies for Managing Ebola Outbreaks and the Salience of Immunization," Post-Print hal-01214432, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01214432
    DOI: 10.1155/2015/736507
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01214432
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Ebola; Managing; simulation mode;
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