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Simulation and Analysis of the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Carbon Dynamics in the Wuhan City Circle Area

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  • Chao Liu

    (Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environment System Simulation, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China)

  • Yuan Liang

    (School of Arts and Communication, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China)

  • Yajin Zhao

    (Dalian Customs District P.R. China, Dalian 116000, China)

  • Shuangshuang Liu

    (Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environment System Simulation, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China)

  • Chunbo Huang

    (Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environment System Simulation, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China)

Abstract

In a climate and land use change context, the sequestration of atmospheric carbon in urban agglomeration is key to achieving carbon emission and neutrality targets. It is thus critical to understand how various climate and land use changes impact overall carbon sequestration in large-scale city circle areas. As the largest urban agglomeration in central China, carbon dynamics in the Wuhan City Circle area have been deeply affected by rapid urbanization and climate change in the past two decades. Here, we applied monthly climate data, spatially explicit land use maps, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) images and the CASA (Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach) model to estimate the spatial and temporal changes of carbon dynamics in the Wuhan City Circle area from 2000 to 2015. We designed six different scenarios to analyze the effects of climate change and land use change on carbon dynamics. Our simulation of NPP (Net Primary Productivity) increased from 522.63 gC × m −2 to 615.82 gC × m −2 in the Wuhan City Circle area during 2000–2015. Climate change and land use change contributed to total carbon sequestration by −73.3 × 10 10 gC and 480 × 10 10 gC, respectively. Both precipitation and temperature had a negative effect on carbon sequestration, while radiation had a positive effect. In addition, the positive effect on carbon sequestration from afforestation was almost equal to the negative effect from urbanization between 2000 and 2015. Importantly, these findings highlight the possibility of carrying out both rapid urbanization and ecological restoration simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Liu & Yuan Liang & Yajin Zhao & Shuangshuang Liu & Chunbo Huang, 2021. "Simulation and Analysis of the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Carbon Dynamics in the Wuhan City Circle Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-18, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:21:p:11617-:d:672502
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mengyao Li & Hongxia Luo & Zili Qin & Yuanxin Tong, 2023. "Spatial-Temporal Simulation of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use in Yangtze River Delta under SSP-RCP Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Yujie Zhang & Xiaoyu Wang & Lei Zhang & Hongbin Xu & Taeyeol Jung & Lei Xiao, 2024. "Changes in Wuhan’s Carbon Stocks and Their Spatial Distributions in 2050 under Multiple Projection Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Sheng Zheng & Yukuan Huang & Yu Sun, 2022. "Effects of Urban Form on Carbon Emissions in China: Implications for Low-Carbon Urban Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, August.
    5. Mingjie Shi & Hongqi Wu & Pingan Jiang & Wenjiao Shi & Mo Zhang & Lina Zhang & Haoyu Zhang & Xin Fan & Zhuo Liu & Kai Zheng & Tong Dong & Muhammad Fahad Baqa, 2022. "Cropland Expansion Mitigates the Supply and Demand Deficit for Carbon Sequestration Service under Different Scenarios in the Future—The Case of Xinjiang," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, August.
    6. Shuangshuang Liu & Qipeng Liao & Yuan Liang & Zhifei Li & Chunbo Huang, 2021. "Spatio–Temporal Heterogeneity of Urban Expansion and Population Growth in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-26, December.

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