IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v409y2019ic3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term responses of boreal carbon stocks to climate change: A simulation study of black spruce forests

Author

Listed:
  • Miquelajauregui, Yosune
  • Cumming, Steven G.
  • Gauthier, Sylvie

Abstract

Boreal forest ecosystems play a significant role in the global C cycle. Over the current century, these forests are expected to undergo one of the largest increases in temperatures. Climate change is expected to affect boreal C storage through changes in fire regimes, tree growth and decomposition rates. We developed a diameter-size structured model, coupled with a boreal soil C dynamics model and a fire effects model to investigate the short-term responses of boreal carbon storage to climate change. We applied this model to 1.0 ha patches of monospecific black spruce stands under four climatic periods: 1980–2010, 2010–2040, 2040–2070 and 2070–2100. Forest inventory and historical fire intensity records representative of our study area were used to calibrate the model. Historical and future fire return interval (FRI) maps and projected weather data estimated by CanESM2 RCP8.5 climate scenario were used to drive historical and future disturbance frequency, forest growth, decomposition rates, and C dynamics. Black spruce trees showed amplified decreases in growth and temperature-sensitive decomposition rates of soil C pools were enhanced as projected air temperature increased. This study indicates that the short-term effects of climate change on black spruce forests productivity and C storage are substantially negative. In our simulation experiments, ecosystem C storage was reduced by 10% by the end of 2100. We predicted a marked and widespread change from C sink to C source, which has already started and will persist at least until 2100. The results of this study indicate that black spruce forest of northern Québec could be losing their capacity to sequester and store organic C over the next coming decades due to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Miquelajauregui, Yosune & Cumming, Steven G. & Gauthier, Sylvie, 2019. "Short-term responses of boreal carbon stocks to climate change: A simulation study of black spruce forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 409(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:409:y:2019:i:c:3
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108754
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380019302625
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108754?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael W. I. Schmidt & Margaret S. Torn & Samuel Abiven & Thorsten Dittmar & Georg Guggenberger & Ivan A. Janssens & Markus Kleber & Ingrid Kögel-Knabner & Johannes Lehmann & David A. C. Manning & Pa, 2011. "Persistence of soil organic matter as an ecosystem property," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7367), pages 49-56, October.
    2. Hagemann, Ulrike & Moroni, Martin T. & Shaw, Cindy H. & Kurz, Werner A. & Makeschin, Franz, 2010. "Comparing measured and modelled forest carbon stocks in high-boreal forests of harvest and natural-disturbance origin in Labrador, Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(5), pages 825-839.
    3. Scheller, Robert M. & Domingo, James B. & Sturtevant, Brian R. & Williams, Jeremy S. & Rudy, Arnold & Gustafson, Eric J. & Mladenoff, David J., 2007. "Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 409-419.
    4. Kurz, W.A. & Dymond, C.C. & White, T.M. & Stinson, G. & Shaw, C.H. & Rampley, G.J. & Smyth, C. & Simpson, B.N. & Neilson, E.T. & Trofymow, J.A. & Metsaranta, J. & Apps, M.J., 2009. "CBM-CFS3: A model of carbon-dynamics in forestry and land-use change implementing IPCC standards," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(4), pages 480-504.
    5. Narayan Dhital & Fr�d�ric Raulier & Pierre Y. Bernier & Marie-Pierre Lapointe-Garant & Frank Berninger & Yves Bergeron, 2015. "Adaptation potential of ecosystem-based management to climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 2228-2249, December.
    6. Scheller, Robert M. & Hua, Dong & Bolstad, Paul V. & Birdsey, Richard A. & Mladenoff, David J., 2011. "The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 144-153.
    7. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    8. Eric A. Davidson & Ivan A. Janssens, 2006. "Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7081), pages 165-173, March.
    9. Hanqin Tian & Jerry M. Melillo & David W. Kicklighter & A. David McGuire & John V. K. Helfrich & Berrien Moore & Charles J. Vörösmarty, 1998. "Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 396(6712), pages 664-667, December.
    10. Keywan Riahi & Shilpa Rao & Volker Krey & Cheolhung Cho & Vadim Chirkov & Guenther Fischer & Georg Kindermann & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Rafaj, 2011. "RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 33-57, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shaw, C.H. & Hilger, A.B. & Metsaranta, J. & Kurz, W.A. & Russo, G. & Eichel, F. & Stinson, G. & Smyth, C. & Filiatrault, M., 2014. "Evaluation of simulated estimates of forest ecosystem carbon stocks using ground plot data from Canada's National Forest Inventory," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 323-347.
    2. Karam, Sarah L. & Weisberg, Peter J. & Scheller, Robert M. & Johnson, Dale W. & Miller, W. Wally, 2013. "Development and evaluation of a nutrient cycling extension for the LANDIS-II landscape simulation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 45-57.
    3. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    4. Scheller, Robert & Kretchun, Alec & Hawbaker, Todd J. & Henne, Paul D., 2019. "A landscape model of variable social-ecological fire regimes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 85-93.
    5. Seidl, Rupert & Fernandes, Paulo M. & Fonseca, Teresa F. & Gillet, François & Jönsson, Anna Maria & Merganičová, Katarína & Netherer, Sigrid & Arpaci, Alexander & Bontemps, Jean-Daniel & Bugmann, Hara, 2011. "Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 903-924.
    6. Guoai Li & Xuxu Chai & Zheng Shi & Honghua Ruan, 2023. "Interactive Effects Determine Radiocarbon Abundance in Soil Fractions of Global Biomes," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Lucash, Melissa S. & Marshall, Adrienne M. & Weiss, Shelby A. & McNabb, John W. & Nicolsky, Dmitry J. & Flerchinger, Gerald N. & Link, Timothy E. & Vogel, Jason G. & Scheller, Robert M. & Abramoff, Ro, 2023. "Burning trees in frozen soil: Simulating fire, vegetation, soil, and hydrology in the boreal forests of Alaska," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    8. Haga, Chihiro & Hotta, Wataru & Inoue, Takahiro & Matsui, Takanori & Aiba, Masahiro & Owari, Toshiaki & Suzuki, Satoshi N. & Shibata, Hideaki & Morimoto, Junko, 2022. "Modeling Tree Recovery in Wind-Disturbed Forests with Dense Understory Species under Climate Change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).
    9. Iñigo Capellán-Pérez & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Alberto Ansuategi & Kishore Dhavala & Pralit Patel & Anil Markandya, 2014. "New climate scenario framework implementation in the GCAM integrated assessment model," Working Papers 2014-04, BC3.
    10. Jean-Sébastien Landry & Navin Ramankutty, 2015. "Carbon Cycling, Climate Regulation, and Disturbances in Canadian Forests: Scientific Principles for Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, January.
    11. Zhang, Feng & Zhang, Wenjuan & Li, Ming & Zhang, Yuan & Li, Fengmin & Li, Changbin, 2017. "Is crop biomass and soil carbon storage sustainable with long-term application of full plastic film mulching under future climate change?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 67-77.
    12. Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 60-71.
    13. Inglis, Nicole C. & Vukomanovic, Jelena, 2020. "Climate change disproportionately affects visual quality of cultural ecosystem services in a mountain region," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    14. de Bruijn, Arjan & Gustafson, Eric J. & Sturtevant, Brian R. & Foster, Jane R. & Miranda, Brian R. & Lichti, Nathanael I. & Jacobs, Douglass F., 2014. "Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: Embedding PnET within LANDIS-II," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 287(C), pages 44-57.
    15. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 16-31.
    16. Hong, Eun-Mi & Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Pachepsky, Yakov A., 2016. "Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 163-180.
    17. Liangang Ma & Baohua Xiao, 2023. "Characteristic of Molecular Weight-Fractions of Soil Organic Matter from Calcareous Soil and Yellow Soil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-13, January.
    18. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2014. "Development of a global computable general equilibrium model coupled with detailed energy end-use technology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 296-306.
    19. Smyth, C.E. & Kurz, W.A. & Trofymow, J.A., 2011. "Including the effects of water stress on decomposition in the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector CBM-CFS3," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(5), pages 1080-1091.
    20. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:409:y:2019:i:c:3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.