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Cropland Expansion Mitigates the Supply and Demand Deficit for Carbon Sequestration Service under Different Scenarios in the Future—The Case of Xinjiang

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  • Mingjie Shi

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Hongqi Wu

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Pingan Jiang

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Wenjiao Shi

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Mo Zhang

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Lina Zhang

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Haoyu Zhang

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)

  • Xin Fan

    (School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
    Center for Turkmenistan Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Zhuo Liu

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Kai Zheng

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Tong Dong

    (Key Laboratory of Coastal Science and Integrated Management, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China)

  • Muhammad Fahad Baqa

    (College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China)

Abstract

China’s double carbon initiative faces huge challenges, and understanding the carbon sequestration service of terrestrial ecosystems under future interannual regional land use change is important to respond to China’s carbon policy effectively. Previous studies have recognized the important impact of land use/land cover (LULC) planning on carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystem services (ESs). However, exploring trends in carbon sequestration under sustainable development scenarios that combine economic and ecological development, particularly the mechanisms that balance the supply and demand of carbon sequestration, still requires in-depth exploration in different geographical contexts. In this study, we present the LULC simulation framework from 2000 to 2030 for four different development scenarios in the Xinjiang region, located in an important Belt and Road region, including business as usual (BAU), rapid economic development (RED), ecological land protection (ELP), and sustainable development with both economic and ecological development (SD). Our results suggest that both the supply and demand of carbon stock in Xinjiang will increase in 2025 and 2030, with the demand exceeding the supply. However, our scenario planning mitigates the supply and demand deficit situation for carbon sequestration in the context of future cropland expansion in different scenarios. In summary, our study’s findings will enrich the study of carbon sequestration under future scenarios in the Belt and Road region. Xinjiang should pay more attention to the dynamic changes in landscape type structure and its carbon storage supply and demand caused by cultivated land expansion. Among the four scenarios, the spatial difference between carbon storage supply and demand based on the SD scenario is the smallest, which is more in line with the high-quality development of regional ecological security in Xinjiang.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingjie Shi & Hongqi Wu & Pingan Jiang & Wenjiao Shi & Mo Zhang & Lina Zhang & Haoyu Zhang & Xin Fan & Zhuo Liu & Kai Zheng & Tong Dong & Muhammad Fahad Baqa, 2022. "Cropland Expansion Mitigates the Supply and Demand Deficit for Carbon Sequestration Service under Different Scenarios in the Future—The Case of Xinjiang," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:8:p:1182-:d:883599
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wenqiang Zhou & Jinlong Wang & Yu Han & Ling Yang & Huafei Que & Rong Wang, 2023. "Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Dengpan Xiao & Wenjiao Shi, 2023. "Modeling the Adaptation of Agricultural Production to Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-4, February.
    3. Yaqi Cheng & Wei Song & Hao Yu & Xi Wei & Shuangqing Sheng & Bo Liu & He Gao & Junfang Li & Congjie Cao & Dazhi Yang, 2023. "Assessment and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk from Land Use Change in Xinjiang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, April.

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