IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v12y2022i8p1182-d883599.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cropland Expansion Mitigates the Supply and Demand Deficit for Carbon Sequestration Service under Different Scenarios in the Future—The Case of Xinjiang

Author

Listed:
  • Mingjie Shi

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Hongqi Wu

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Pingan Jiang

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Wenjiao Shi

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Mo Zhang

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Lina Zhang

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Haoyu Zhang

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)

  • Xin Fan

    (School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
    Center for Turkmenistan Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Zhuo Liu

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Kai Zheng

    (College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Soil and Plant Ecological Processes, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China)

  • Tong Dong

    (Key Laboratory of Coastal Science and Integrated Management, First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Qingdao 266061, China)

  • Muhammad Fahad Baqa

    (College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China)

Abstract

China’s double carbon initiative faces huge challenges, and understanding the carbon sequestration service of terrestrial ecosystems under future interannual regional land use change is important to respond to China’s carbon policy effectively. Previous studies have recognized the important impact of land use/land cover (LULC) planning on carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystem services (ESs). However, exploring trends in carbon sequestration under sustainable development scenarios that combine economic and ecological development, particularly the mechanisms that balance the supply and demand of carbon sequestration, still requires in-depth exploration in different geographical contexts. In this study, we present the LULC simulation framework from 2000 to 2030 for four different development scenarios in the Xinjiang region, located in an important Belt and Road region, including business as usual (BAU), rapid economic development (RED), ecological land protection (ELP), and sustainable development with both economic and ecological development (SD). Our results suggest that both the supply and demand of carbon stock in Xinjiang will increase in 2025 and 2030, with the demand exceeding the supply. However, our scenario planning mitigates the supply and demand deficit situation for carbon sequestration in the context of future cropland expansion in different scenarios. In summary, our study’s findings will enrich the study of carbon sequestration under future scenarios in the Belt and Road region. Xinjiang should pay more attention to the dynamic changes in landscape type structure and its carbon storage supply and demand caused by cultivated land expansion. Among the four scenarios, the spatial difference between carbon storage supply and demand based on the SD scenario is the smallest, which is more in line with the high-quality development of regional ecological security in Xinjiang.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingjie Shi & Hongqi Wu & Pingan Jiang & Wenjiao Shi & Mo Zhang & Lina Zhang & Haoyu Zhang & Xin Fan & Zhuo Liu & Kai Zheng & Tong Dong & Muhammad Fahad Baqa, 2022. "Cropland Expansion Mitigates the Supply and Demand Deficit for Carbon Sequestration Service under Different Scenarios in the Future—The Case of Xinjiang," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:8:p:1182-:d:883599
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/8/1182/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/8/1182/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William R. Wieder & Gordon B. Bonan & Steven D. Allison, 2013. "Global soil carbon projections are improved by modelling microbial processes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 909-912, October.
    2. Daowei Zhang & Anne Stenger, 2015. "Value and valuation of forest ecosystem services," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 129-140, July.
    3. Carmen Schwartz & Mostafa Shaaban & Sonoko Dorothea Bellingrath-Kimura & Annette Piorr, 2021. "Participatory Mapping of Demand for Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Chao Liu & Yuan Liang & Yajin Zhao & Shuangshuang Liu & Chunbo Huang, 2021. "Simulation and Analysis of the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change on Carbon Dynamics in the Wuhan City Circle Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Yilong Wang & Xuhui Wang & Kai Wang & Frédéric Chevallier & Dan Zhu & Jinghui Lian & Yue He & Hanqin Tian & Junsheng Li & Jianxiao Zhu & Sujong Jeong & Josep G. Canadell, 2022. "The size of the land carbon sink in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 603(7901), pages 7-9, March.
    6. Jing Wang & Liang Feng & Paul I. Palmer & Yi Liu & Shuangxi Fang & Hartmut Bösch & Christopher W. O’Dell & Xiaoping Tang & Dongxu Yang & Lixin Liu & ChaoZong Xia, 2022. "Reply to: The size of the land carbon sink in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 603(7901), pages 10-12, March.
    7. Yang Bai & Christina P. Wong & Bo Jiang & Alice C. Hughes & Min Wang & Qing Wang, 2018. "Developing China’s Ecological Redline Policy using ecosystem services assessments for land use planning," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wenqiang Zhou & Jinlong Wang & Yu Han & Ling Yang & Huafei Que & Rong Wang, 2023. "Scenario Simulation of the Relationship between Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Carbon Storage: A Case Study in Dongting Lake Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Dengpan Xiao & Wenjiao Shi, 2023. "Modeling the Adaptation of Agricultural Production to Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-4, February.
    3. Yaqi Cheng & Wei Song & Hao Yu & Xi Wei & Shuangqing Sheng & Bo Liu & He Gao & Junfang Li & Congjie Cao & Dazhi Yang, 2023. "Assessment and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk from Land Use Change in Xinjiang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Shanshan Meng & Jianli Ding & Jinjie Wang & Shuang Zhao & Zipeng Zhang, 2024. "Impacts of Changes in Oasis Farmland Patterns on Carbon Storage in Arid Zones—A Case Study of the Xinjiang Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-24, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lei Hua & Rong Ran & Mingjuan Xie & Tingrou Li, 2024. "The capacity of land carbon sinks in poverty-stricken areas in China continues to increase in the process of eradicating extreme poverty: evidence from a study of poverty-stricken counties on the Qing," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 17253-17280, July.
    2. Hui Wen & Yi Li & Zirong Li & Xiaoxue Cai & Fengxia Wang, 2022. "Spatial Differentiation of Carbon Budgets and Carbon Balance Zoning in China Based on the Land Use Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Mengting Dong & Zeyuan Liu & Xiufeng Ni & Zhulin Qi & Jinnan Wang & Qingyu Zhang, 2023. "Re-Evaluating the Value of Ecosystem Based on Carbon Benefit: A Case Study in Chengdu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Chaochao Du & Xiaoyong Bai & Yangbing Li & Qiu Tan & Cuiwei Zhao & Guangjie Luo & Luhua Wu & Fei Chen & Chaojun Li & Chen Ran & Xuling Luo & Huipeng Xi & Huan Chen & Sirui Zhang & Min Liu & Suhua Gong, 2022. "Inventory of China’s Net Biome Productivity since the 21st Century," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, August.
    5. Fangli Zhang & Wenchao Zhang & Jodie A. Yuwono & David Wexler & Yameng Fan & Jinshuo Zou & Gemeng Liang & Liang Sun & Zaiping Guo, 2024. "Catalytic role of in-situ formed C-N species for enhanced Li2CO3 decomposition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Shenghang Wang & Shen Tan & Jiaming Xu, 2023. "Evaluation and Implication of the Policies towards China’s Carbon Neutrality," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-15, April.
    7. Lin Zhao & Meng-na Chen & Chuan-hao Yang & Run-ze Zhang & Qi-peng Zhang & Qian Wang, 2024. "Characteristics of spatial and temporal carbon emissions from different land uses in Shanxi section of the Yellow River, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 20869-20884, August.
    8. Minghui Yang & Yu Xie, 2021. "Spatial Pattern Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics of Ecological and Non-Ecological Redline Areas in Nanjing, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-18, April.
    9. Guo, Chaoyi & Zhou, Ziqiao & Liu, Xinyuan & Liu, Xiaorui & Meng, Jing & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "The unintended dilemma of China's target-based carbon neutrality policy and provincial economic inequality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Qian Zhou & Feng Gui & Benxuan Zhao & Jingyi Liu & Huiwen Cai & Kaida Xu & Sheng Zhao, 2024. "Examining the Social Costs of Carbon Emissions and the Ecosystem Service Value in Island Ecosystems: An Analysis of the Zhoushan Archipelago," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Jean-Baptiste Ramond & Annelize Pienaar & Alacia Armstrong & Mary Seely & Don A Cowan, 2014. "Niche-Partitioning of Edaphic Microbial Communities in the Namib Desert Gravel Plain Fairy Circles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-9, October.
    12. Fangfang Xun & Yecui Hu & Ling Lv & Jinhui Tong, 2017. "Farmers’ Awareness of Ecosystem Services and the Associated Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-13, September.
    13. Lili Zhang & Baoqing Hu & Ze Zhang & Gaodou Liang & Simin Huang, 2023. "Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological-Economic Value of Guangxi Based on Land Consolidation," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-25, March.
    14. Xinmin Zhang & Hualin Xie & Jiaying Shi & Tiangui Lv & Caihua Zhou & Wangda Liu, 2020. "Assessing Changes in Ecosystem Service Values in Response to Land Cover Dynamics in Jiangxi Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-15, April.
    15. Xuanmiao Peng & Xiaoai Dai & Ryan Shi & Yujian Zheng & Xinyue Liu & Yuhe Xiao & Weile Li & Yang Zhang & Jue Wang & Huan Huang, 2024. "Investigating the Effects of Mining on Ecosystem Services in Panzhihua City: A Multi-Scenario Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-25, June.
    16. Josset, Clement & Shanafelt, David W. & Abildtrup, Jens & Stenger, Anne, 2023. "Probabilistic typology of private forest owners: A tool to target the development of new market for ecosystem services," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Anne Stenger & Patrice Harou, 2015. "Special issue on forest investments profitability," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 125-128, July.
    18. Yuhan Yu & Mengmeng Yu & Lu Lin & Jiaxin Chen & Dongjie Li & Wenting Zhang & Kai Cao, 2019. "National Green GDP Assessment and Prediction for China Based on a CA-Markov Land Use Simulation Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, January.
    19. Wei Guo & Yongjia Teng & Yueguan Yan & Chuanwu Zhao & Wanqiu Zhang & Xianglin Ji, 2022. "Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution in Multi-Scenario: A Case Study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    20. Chengjie Ren & Zhenghu Zhou & Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo & Felipe Bastida & Fazhu Zhao & Yuanhe Yang & Shuohong Zhang & Jieying Wang & Chao Zhang & Xinhui Han & Jun Wang & Gaihe Yang & Gehong Wei, 2024. "Thermal sensitivity of soil microbial carbon use efficiency across forest biomes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:8:p:1182-:d:883599. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.