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Evolution Characteristics of Surface Water Quality Due to Climate Change and LUCC under Scenario Simulations: A Case Study in the Luanhe River Basin

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  • Wuxia Bi

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
    College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Baisha Weng

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Zhe Yuan

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
    Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China)

  • Mao Ye

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Cheng Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

  • Yu Zhao

    (State Key Laboratory on Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China)

  • Dengming Yan

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
    College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, China)

  • Ting Xu

    (State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

Abstract

It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration—climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Wuxia Bi & Baisha Weng & Zhe Yuan & Mao Ye & Cheng Zhang & Yu Zhao & Dengming Yan & Ting Xu, 2018. "Evolution Characteristics of Surface Water Quality Due to Climate Change and LUCC under Scenario Simulations: A Case Study in the Luanhe River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:8:p:1724-:d:163203
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wuxia Bi & Baisha Weng & Zhe Yuan & Yuheng Yang & Ting Xu & Dengming Yan & Jun Ma, 2019. "Evolution of Drought–Flood Abrupt Alternation and Its Impacts on Surface Water Quality from 2020 to 2050 in the Luanhe River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Shibao Lu & Yizi Shang & Hongbo Zhang, 2020. "Evaluation on Early Drought Warning System in the Jinghui Channel Irrigation Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Yongbin Zhang & Tanglei Song & Jihao Fan & Weidong Man & Mingyue Liu & Yongqiang Zhao & Hao Zheng & Yahui Liu & Chunyu Li & Jingru Song & Xiaowu Yang & Junmin Du, 2022. "Land Use and Climate Change Altered the Ecological Quality in the Luanhe River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Suduan Hu & Tianxiang Wang & Shiguo Xu & Lingxiao Ma & and Xinguo Sun, 2019. "Seasonal Release Potential of Sediments in Reservoirs and its Impact on Water Quality Assessment," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-17, September.

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