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The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Yeong-Jun Song

    (Department of Preventive Medicine College of Medicine, Eulji University, Daejeon 34824, Korea)

  • Hae-Kwan Cheong

    (Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Suwon 16419, Korea)

  • Myung Ki

    (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul 02841, Korea)

  • Ji-Yeon Shin

    (Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41944, Korea)

  • Seung-sik Hwang

    (Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea)

  • Mira Park

    (Department of Preventive Medicine College of Medicine, Eulji University, Daejeon 34824, Korea)

  • Moran Ki

    (Department of Cancer Control and Population Health, Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang 10408, Korea)

  • Jiseun Lim

    (Department of Preventive Medicine College of Medicine, Eulji University, Daejeon 34824, Korea)

Abstract

Research has shown the effects of climatic factors on shigellosis; however, no previous study has evaluated climatic effects in regions with a winter seasonality of shigellosis incidence. We examined the effects of temperature and precipitation on shigellosis incidence in Korea from 2002–2010. The incidence of shigellosis was calculated based on data from the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC, Cheongju, Korea), and a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the associations between the incidence and climatic factors. The annual incidence rate of shigellosis was 7.9 cases/million persons from 2002–2010. During 2007–2010, high incidence rates and winter seasonality were observed among those aged ≥65 years, but not among lower age groups. Based on the GAM model, the incidence of shigellosis is expected to increase by 13.6% and 2.9% with a temperature increase of 1 °C and a lag of two weeks and with a mean precipitation increase of 1 mm and a lag of five weeks after adjustment for seasonality, respectively. This study suggests that the incidence of shigellosis will increase with global climate change despite the winter seasonality of shigellosis in Korea. Public health action is needed to prevent the increase of shigellosis incidence associated with climate variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yeong-Jun Song & Hae-Kwan Cheong & Myung Ki & Ji-Yeon Shin & Seung-sik Hwang & Mira Park & Moran Ki & Jiseun Lim, 2018. "The Epidemiological Influence of Climatic Factors on Shigellosis Incidence Rates in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-9, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:10:p:2209-:d:174666
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steffen Unkel & C. Paddy Farrington & Paul H. Garthwaite & Chris Robertson & Nick Andrews, 2012. "Statistical methods for the prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks: a review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 175(1), pages 49-82, January.
    2. Weiping Ma & Xiaodong Sun & Yanyan Song & Fangfang Tao & Wei Feng & Yi He & Naiqing Zhao & Zhengan Yuan, 2013. "Applied Mixed Generalized Additive Model to Assess the Effect of Temperature on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery and Its Forecast," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-12, April.
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    1. Lucía Echevarría-Lucas & José Mᵃ Senciales-González & María Eloísa Medialdea-Hurtado & Jesús Rodrigo-Comino, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Eye Diseases and Associated Economical Costs," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-25, July.

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