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Comparison of Statistical Algorithms for the Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Large Multiple Surveillance Systems

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  • Doyo G Enki
  • Paul H Garthwaite
  • C Paddy Farrington
  • Angela Noufaily
  • Nick J Andrews
  • Andre Charlett

Abstract

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace.

Suggested Citation

  • Doyo G Enki & Paul H Garthwaite & C Paddy Farrington & Angela Noufaily & Nick J Andrews & Andre Charlett, 2016. "Comparison of Statistical Algorithms for the Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Large Multiple Surveillance Systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0160759
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0160759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Sonesson & David Bock, 2003. "A review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 166(1), pages 5-21, February.
    2. C. P. Farrington & N. J. Andrews & A. D. Beale & M. A. Catchpole, 1996. "A Statistical Algorithm for the Early Detection of Outbreaks of Infectious Disease," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 159(3), pages 547-563, May.
    3. Steffen Unkel & C. Paddy Farrington & Paul H. Garthwaite & Chris Robertson & Nick Andrews, 2012. "Statistical methods for the prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks: a review," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 175(1), pages 49-82, January.
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