IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v12y2015i6p6333-6351d50573.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Jan C. Semenza

    (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Tomtebodavagen 11A, SE-171 83 Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract

Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan C. Semenza, 2015. "Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:6:p:6333-6351:d:50573
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/6/6333/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/6/6333/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esra Ozdenerol & Gregory N. Taff & Cem Akkus, 2013. "Exploring the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Reservoir Hosts, Vectors, and Human Hosts of West Nile Virus: A Review of the Recent Literature," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-34, October.
    2. Shlomit Paz & Jan C. Semenza, 2013. "Environmental Drivers of West Nile Fever Epidemiology in Europe and Western Asia—A Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Samir Bhatt & Peter W. Gething & Oliver J. Brady & Jane P. Messina & Andrew W. Farlow & Catherine L. Moyes & John M. Drake & John S. Brownstein & Anne G. Hoen & Osman Sankoh & Monica F. Myers & Dylan , 2013. "The global distribution and burden of dengue," Nature, Nature, vol. 496(7446), pages 504-507, April.
    4. Kate E. Jones & Nikkita G. Patel & Marc A. Levy & Adam Storeygard & Deborah Balk & John L. Gittleman & Peter Daszak, 2008. "Global trends in emerging infectious diseases," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7181), pages 990-993, February.
    5. Suk, J.E. & Semenza, J.C., 2011. "Future infectious disease threats to Europe," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 101(11), pages 2068-2079.
    6. Anthony J. McMichael, 2013. "Impediments to Comprehensive Research on Climate Change and Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-10, November.
    7. Jörn P W Scharlemann & David Benz & Simon I Hay & Bethan V Purse & Andrew J Tatem & G R William Wint & David J Rogers, 2008. "Global Data for Ecology and Epidemiology: A Novel Algorithm for Temporal Fourier Processing MODIS Data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(1), pages 1-13, January.
    8. Semenza, J.C. & Giesecke, J., 2008. "Intervening to reduce inequalities in infections in Europe," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(5), pages 787-792.
    9. Annelise Tran & Grégory L'Ambert & Guillaume Lacour & Romain Benoît & Marie Demarchi & Myriam Cros & Priscilla Cailly & Mélaine Aubry-Kientz & Thomas Balenghien & Pauline Ezanno, 2013. "A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Jan C. Semenza & Dragoslav Domanović, 2013. "Blood supply under threat," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 432-435, May.
    11. Stephanie Margarete Thomas & Nils Benjamin Tjaden & Sanne Van den Bos & Carl Beierkuhnlein, 2014. "Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    12. Gordon L. Nichols & Yvonne Andersson & Elisabet Lindgren & Isabelle Devaux & Jan C. Semenza, 2014. "European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-43, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexandra Sawatzky & Ashlee Cunsolo & Andria Jones-Bitton & Jacqueline Middleton & Sherilee L. Harper, 2018. "Responding to Climate and Environmental Change Impacts on Human Health via Integrated Surveillance in the Circumpolar North: A Systematic Realist Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-37, November.
    2. Panagiotis Pergantas & Nikos E. Papanikolaou & Chrisovalantis Malesios & Andreas Tsatsaris & Marios Kondakis & Iokasti Perganta & Yiannis Tselentis & Nikos Demiris, 2021. "Towards a Semi-Automatic Early Warning System for Vector-Borne Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Mary Fox & Christopher Zuidema & Bridget Bauman & Thomas Burke & Mary Sheehan, 2019. "Integrating Public Health into Climate Change Policy and Planning: State of Practice Update," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-22, September.
    4. Samuel Sellers & Kristie L. Ebi, 2017. "Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gordon L. Nichols & Yvonne Andersson & Elisabet Lindgren & Isabelle Devaux & Jan C. Semenza, 2014. "European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-43, April.
    2. Jan C. Semenza, 2014. "Climate Change and Human Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-7, July.
    3. Marieta Braks & Rijk Van Ginkel & William Wint & Luigi Sedda & Hein Sprong, 2013. "Climate Change and Public Health Policy: Translating the Science," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Jonathan E. Suk & Kristie L. Ebi & David Vose & Willy Wint & Neil Alexander & Koen Mintiens & Jan C. Semenza, 2014. "Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Diana Erazo & Luke Grant & Guillaume Ghisbain & Giovanni Marini & Felipe J. Colón-González & William Wint & Annapaola Rizzoli & Wim Van Bortel & Chantal B. F. Vogels & Nathan D. Grubaugh & Matthias Me, 2024. "Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Zheng, Zhoumin & Xu, Nuo & Khan, Mohsin & Pedersen, Michael & Abdalgader, Tarteel & Zhang, Lai, 2024. "Nonlinear impacts of climate change on dengue transmission in mainland China: Underlying mechanisms and future projection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    7. Heyuan You & Xin Wu & Xuxu Guo, 2020. "Distribution of COVID-19 Morbidity Rate in Association with Social and Economic Factors in Wuhan, China: Implications for Urban Development," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-14, May.
    8. Yusuf Amuda Tajudeen & Habeebullah Jayeola Oladipo & Iyiola Olatunji Oladunjoye & Mutiat Oluwakemi Mustapha & Sheriff Taye Mustapha & Adam Aberi Abdullahi & Rashidat Onyinoyi Yusuf & Samuel Olushola A, 2022. "Preventing the Next Pandemic through a Planetary Health Approach: A Focus on Key Drivers of Zoonosis," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, September.
    9. Çiğdem Ak & Önder Ergönül & İrfan Şencan & Mehmet Ali Torunoğlu & Mehmet Gönen, 2018. "Spatiotemporal prediction of infectious diseases using structured Gaussian processes with application to Crimean–Congo hemorrhagic fever," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Marc Suhrcke & David Stuckler & Jonathan E Suk & Monica Desai & Michaela Senek & Martin McKee & Svetla Tsolova & Sanjay Basu & Ibrahim Abubakar & Paul Hunter & Boika Rechel & Jan C Semenza, 2011. "The Impact of Economic Crises on Communicable Disease Transmission and Control: A Systematic Review of the Evidence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(6), pages 1-12, June.
    11. Maya Negev & Shlomit Paz & Alexandra Clermont & Noemie Groag Pri-Or & Uri Shalom & Tamar Yeger & Manfred S. Green, 2015. "Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-26, June.
    12. Nikolett Orosz & Tünde Tóthné Tóth & Gyöngyi Vargáné Gyuró & Zsoltné Tibor Nábrádi & Klára Hegedűsné Sorosi & Zsuzsa Nagy & Éva Rigó & Ádám Kaposi & Gabriella Gömöri & Cornelia Melinda Adi Santoso & A, 2022. "Comparison of Length of Hospital Stay for Community-Acquired Infections Due to Enteric Pathogens, Influenza Viruses and Multidrug-Resistant Bacteria: A Cross-Sectional Study in Hungary," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-16, November.
    13. Mudassar Arsalan & Omar Mubin & Fady Alnajjar & Belal Alsinglawi, 2020. "COVID-19 Global Risk: Expectation vs. Reality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-10, August.
    14. Ceddia, M.G. & Bardsley, N.O. & Goodwin, R. & Holloway, G.J. & Nocella, G. & Stasi, A., 2013. "A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: Integrating economic and ecological aspects," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 124-131.
    15. John M Drake & Tobias S Brett & Shiyang Chen & Bogdan I Epureanu & Matthew J Ferrari & Éric Marty & Paige B Miller & Eamon B O’Dea & Suzanne M O’Regan & Andrew W Park & Pejman Rohani, 2019. "The statistics of epidemic transitions," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-14, May.
    16. Ongolo, Symphorien & Giessen, Lukas & Karsenty, Alain & Tchamba, Martin & Krott, Max, 2021. "Forestland policies and politics in Africa: Recent evidence and new challenges," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    17. Sakirul Khan & Sheikh Mohammad Fazle Akbar & Takaaki Yahiro & Mamun Al Mahtab & Kazunori Kimitsuki & Takehiro Hashimoto & Akira Nishizono, 2022. "Dengue Infections during COVID-19 Period: Reflection of Reality or Elusive Data Due to Effect of Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-12, August.
    18. Shengzhang Dong & George Dimopoulos, 2023. "Aedes aegypti Argonaute 2 controls arbovirus infection and host mortality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    19. Zhao, Xinxing & Li, Kainan & Ang, Candice Ke En & Cheong, Kang Hao, 2023. "A deep learning based hybrid architecture for weekly dengue incidences forecasting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    20. Eunha Shim, 2017. "Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:6:p:6333-6351:d:50573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.