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Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Diana Erazo

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Luke Grant

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Guillaume Ghisbain

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles
    University of Mons)

  • Giovanni Marini

    (Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach)

  • Felipe J. Colón-González

    (Data for Science and Health, Wellcome Trust)

  • William Wint

    (Environmental Research Group Oxford Ltd, Department of Biology)

  • Annapaola Rizzoli

    (Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach)

  • Wim Van Bortel

    (Institute of Tropical Medicine
    Institute of Tropical Medicine)

  • Chantal B. F. Vogels

    (Yale School of Public Health)

  • Nathan D. Grubaugh

    (Yale School of Public Health
    Yale University)

  • Matthias Mengel

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Katja Frieler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Wim Thiery

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Simon Dellicour

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles
    Laboratory for Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, KU Leuven)

Abstract

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Europe where it represents a new public health threat. While climate change has been cited as a potential driver of its spatial expansion on the continent, a formal evaluation of this causal relationship is lacking. Here, we investigate the extent to which WNV spatial expansion in Europe can be attributed to climate change while accounting for other direct human influences such as land-use and human population changes. To this end, we trained ecological niche models to predict the risk of local WNV circulation leading to human cases to then unravel the isolated effect of climate change by comparing factual simulations to a counterfactual based on the same environmental changes but a counterfactual climate where long-term trends have been removed. Our findings demonstrate a notable increase in the area ecologically suitable for WNV circulation during the period 1901–2019, whereas this area remains largely unchanged in a no-climate-change counterfactual. We show that the drastic increase in the human population at risk of exposure is partly due to historical changes in population density, but that climate change has also been a critical driver behind the heightened risk of WNV circulation in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana Erazo & Luke Grant & Guillaume Ghisbain & Giovanni Marini & Felipe J. Colón-González & William Wint & Annapaola Rizzoli & Wim Van Bortel & Chantal B. F. Vogels & Nathan D. Grubaugh & Matthias Me, 2024. "Contribution of climate change to the spatial expansion of West Nile virus in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-45290-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45290-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shlomit Paz & Jan C. Semenza, 2013. "Environmental Drivers of West Nile Fever Epidemiology in Europe and Western Asia—A Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Jan C. Semenza & Dragoslav Domanović, 2013. "Blood supply under threat," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 432-435, May.
    3. Kristie Ebi & Elisabet Lindgren & Jonathan Suk & Jan Semenza, 2013. "Adaptation to the infectious disease impacts of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 355-365, May.
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