IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i14p3435-d1433827.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using Crested Porcupine Optimizer Algorithm and CNN-LSTM-Attention Model Combined with Deep Learning Methods to Enhance Short-Term Power Forecasting in PV Generation

Author

Listed:
  • Yiling Fan

    (Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Data Information Processing and Control, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China
    Tangshan Key Laboratory of Intelligent Motion Control System, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China)

  • Zhuang Ma

    (Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Data Information Processing and Control, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China
    Tangshan Key Laboratory of Intelligent Motion Control System, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China)

  • Wanwei Tang

    (Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Data Information Processing and Control, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China
    Tangshan Key Laboratory of Intelligent Motion Control System, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China)

  • Jing Liang

    (Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Data Information Processing and Control, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China
    Tangshan Key Laboratory of Intelligent Motion Control System, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China)

  • Pengfei Xu

    (Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Data Information Processing and Control, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China
    Tangshan Key Laboratory of Intelligent Motion Control System, Tangshan University, Tangshan 063000, China)

Abstract

Due to the inherent intermittency, variability, and randomness, photovoltaic (PV) power generation faces significant challenges in energy grid integration. To address these challenges, current research mainly focuses on developing more efficient energy management systems and prediction technologies. Through optimizing scheduling and integration in PV power generation, the stability and reliability of the power grid can be further improved. In this study, a new prediction model is introduced that combines the strengths of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and attention mechanisms, so we call this algorithm CNN-LSTM-Attention (CLA). In addition, the Crested Porcupine Optimizer (CPO) algorithm is utilized to solve the short-term prediction problem in photovoltaic power generation. This model is abbreviated as CPO-CLA. This is the first time that the CPO algorithm has been introduced into the LSTM algorithm for parameter optimization. To effectively capture univariate and multivariate time series patterns, multiple relevant and target variables prediction patterns (MRTPPs) are employed in the CPO-CLA model. The results show that the CPO-CLA model is superior to traditional methods and recent popular models in terms of prediction accuracy and stability, especially in the 13 h timestep. The integration of attention mechanisms enables the model to adaptively focus on the most relevant historical data for future power prediction. The CPO algorithm further optimizes the LSTM network parameters, which ensures the robust generalization ability of the model. The research results are of great significance for energy generation scheduling and establishing trust in the energy market. Ultimately, it will help integrate renewable energy into the grid more reliably and efficiently.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiling Fan & Zhuang Ma & Wanwei Tang & Jing Liang & Pengfei Xu, 2024. "Using Crested Porcupine Optimizer Algorithm and CNN-LSTM-Attention Model Combined with Deep Learning Methods to Enhance Short-Term Power Forecasting in PV Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:14:p:3435-:d:1433827
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/14/3435/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/14/3435/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kumari, Pratima & Toshniwal, Durga, 2021. "Long short term memory–convolutional neural network based deep hybrid approach for solar irradiance forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    2. Elizabeth Michael, Neethu & Hasan, Shazia & Al-Durra, Ahmed & Mishra, Manohar, 2022. "Short-term solar irradiance forecasting based on a novel Bayesian optimized deep Long Short-Term Memory neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    3. Hu, Zehuan & Gao, Yuan & Ji, Siyu & Mae, Masayuki & Imaizumi, Taiji, 2024. "Improved multistep ahead photovoltaic power prediction model based on LSTM and self-attention with weather forecast data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    4. Altaf Hussain & Zulfiqar Ahmad Khan & Tanveer Hussain & Fath U Min Ullah & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik & Chun Wei, 2022. "A Hybrid Deep Learning-Based Network for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-12, October.
    5. Yan, Qin & Lu, Zhiying & Liu, Hong & He, Xingtang & Zhang, Xihai & Guo, Jianlin, 2024. "Short-term prediction of integrated energy load aggregation using a bi-directional simple recurrent unit network with feature-temporal attention mechanism ensemble learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tavakol Aghaei, Vahid & Ağababaoğlu, Arda & Bawo, Biram & Naseradinmousavi, Peiman & Yıldırım, Sinan & Yeşilyurt, Serhat & Onat, Ahmet, 2023. "Energy optimization of wind turbines via a neural control policy based on reinforcement learning Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    2. Wu, Chun & Chen, Xingying & Hua, Haochen & Yu, Kun & Gan, Lei & Shen, Jun & Ding, Yi, 2024. "Peer-to-peer energy trading optimization for community prosumers considering carbon cap-and-trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    3. Gao, Yuan & Miyata, Shohei & Akashi, Yasunori, 2022. "Interpretable deep learning models for hourly solar radiation prediction based on graph neural network and attention," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    4. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Sibtain, Muhammad & Li, Xianshan & Saleem, Snoober & Ain, Qurat-ul- & Shi, Qiang & Li, Fei & Saeed, Muhammad & Majeed, Fatima & Shah, Syed Shoaib Ahmed & Saeed, Muhammad Hammad, 2022. "Multifaceted irradiance prediction by exploiting hybrid decomposition-entropy-Spatiotemporal attention based Sequence2Sequence models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 648-682.
    6. Yanan Xue & Jinliang Yin & Xinhao Hou, 2024. "Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Multi-Feature Domain Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-25, July.
    7. Nourani, Vahid & Sharghi, Elnaz & Behfar, Nazanin & Zhang, Yongqiang, 2022. "Multi-step-ahead solar irradiance modeling employing multi-frequency deep learning models and climatic data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    8. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining simple and less time complex ML models with multivariate empirical mode decomposition to obtain accurate GHI forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    9. Eşlik, Ardan Hüseyin & Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoğlu, Fatih Onur, 2022. "Short-term solar radiation forecasting with a novel image processing-based deep learning approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1490-1505.
    10. Isaac Gallardo & Daniel Amor & Álvaro Gutiérrez, 2023. "Recent Trends in Real-Time Photovoltaic Prediction Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Hu, Yusha & Man, Yi, 2023. "Energy consumption and carbon emissions forecasting for industrial processes: Status, challenges and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    12. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. Peng, Simin & Zhu, Junchao & Wu, Tiezhou & Yuan, Caichenran & Cang, Junjie & Zhang, Kai & Pecht, Michael, 2024. "Prediction of wind and PV power by fusing the multi-stage feature extraction and a PSO-BiLSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    14. Zhang, Jiaan & Liu, Dong & Li, Zhijun & Han, Xu & Liu, Hui & Dong, Cun & Wang, Junyan & Liu, Chenyu & Xia, Yunpeng, 2021. "Power prediction of a wind farm cluster based on spatiotemporal correlations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    15. Xu, Shaozhen & Liu, Jun & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Chengli & Chen, Zaiqing & Tai, Yonghang, 2024. "Minutely multi-step irradiance forecasting based on all-sky images using LSTM-InformerStack hybrid model with dual feature enhancement," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    16. Despotovic, Milan & Voyant, Cyril & Garcia-Gutierrez, Luis & Almorox, Javier & Notton, Gilles, 2024. "Solar irradiance time series forecasting using auto-regressive and extreme learning methods: Influence of transfer learning and clustering," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 365(C).
    17. Lakhdar Nadjib Boucetta & Youssouf Amrane & Aissa Chouder & Saliha Arezki & Sofiane Kichou, 2024. "Enhanced Forecasting Accuracy of a Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Power Plant: A Novel Approach Using Hybrid Variational Mode Decomposition and a CNN-LSTM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-22, April.
    18. Bo Wang & Tiancheng Wang & Mao Yang & Chao Han & Dawei Huang & Dake Gu, 2023. "Ultra-Short-Term Prediction Method of Wind Power for Massive Wind Power Clusters Based on Feature Mining of Spatiotemporal Correlation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, March.
    19. Hu, Zehuan & Gao, Yuan & Sun, Luning & Mae, Masayuki & Imaizumi, Taiji, 2024. "Self-learning dynamic graph neural network with self-attention based on historical data and future data for multi-task multivariate residential air conditioning forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    20. Rai, Amit & Shrivastava, Ashish & Jana, Kartick C., 2023. "Differential attention net: Multi-directed differential attention based hybrid deep learning model for solar power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:14:p:3435-:d:1433827. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.