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A Prognosis Method for Condenser Fouling Based on Differential Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Ying Zhang

    (School of Energy and Power Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Tao Yang

    (School of Energy and Power Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Hongkuan Zhou

    (Science and Technology on Thermal Energy and Power Laboratory, Wuhan 2nd Ship Design and Research Institute, Wuhan 430205, China)

  • Dongzhen Lyu

    (School of Energy and Power Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Wei Zheng

    (Science and Technology on Thermal Energy and Power Laboratory, Wuhan 2nd Ship Design and Research Institute, Wuhan 430205, China)

  • Xianling Li

    (Science and Technology on Thermal Energy and Power Laboratory, Wuhan 2nd Ship Design and Research Institute, Wuhan 430205, China)

Abstract

Fouling in heat exchanger tubes is a common problem in the operation of condensers. The deposition of fouling can affect the thermal efficiency and safety of the condenser. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the impact of fouling on time and carry out scientific treatment. Firstly, fault prognosis methods require a significant amount of historical fault data, which is often lacking in practical applications. This paper proposes a method based on dynamically adjusting parameters of the fouling thermal resistance empirical equation to establish a fouling thermal resistance digital twin model. It is combined with simulation tools to rapidly generate a large amount of fault data for the research of prognosis methods. Secondly, in the research of fault prognosis methods, prognosis accuracy relies on establishing a reliable and accurate model that describes the behavior of faults. The uncertainty in the modeling process significantly affects the results. Classic modeling methods do not effectively quantify uncertainty. Therefore, this paper proposes a method that applies differential modeling to predict fouling faults in condensers, automatically obtaining uncertain parameters while establishing a reliable model. By calculating the performance evaluation indicator, the accuracy error indicator of the differential modeling-based prognosis method is further reduced to 0.35. The results demonstrate that this method can provide effective reference opinions for handling fouling faults in condensers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Zhang & Tao Yang & Hongkuan Zhou & Dongzhen Lyu & Wei Zheng & Xianling Li, 2023. "A Prognosis Method for Condenser Fouling Based on Differential Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-23, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:16:p:5961-:d:1216106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hu, Yang & Baraldi, Piero & Di Maio, Francesco & Zio, Enrico, 2015. "A particle filtering and kernel smoothing-based approach for new design component prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 19-31.
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    3. Soualhi, Moncef & El Koujok, Mohamed & Nguyen, Khanh T.P. & Medjaher, Kamal & Ragab, Ahmed & Ghezzaz, Hakim & Amazouz, Mouloud & Ouali, Mohamed-Salah, 2021. "Adaptive prognostics in a controlled energy conversion process based on long- and short-term predictors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
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