IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i9p3034-d798541.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A New Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting by Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Man-Wen Tian

    (National Key Project Laboratory, Jiangxi University of Engineering, Xinyu 338000, China)

  • Khalid Alattas

    (Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, College of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Jeddah, Jeddah 22254, Saudi Arabia)

  • Fayez El-Sousy

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia)

  • Abdullah Alanazi

    (Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia)

  • Ardashir Mohammadzadeh

    (Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam
    School of Engineering and Technology, Duy Tan University, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam)

  • Jafar Tavoosi

    (Department of the Electronic System, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark)

  • Saleh Mobayen

    (Future Technology Research Center, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliu 64002, Taiwan)

  • Paweł Skruch

    (Department of Automatic Control and Robotics, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30-059 Kraków, Poland)

Abstract

In this study, we present a new approach for load forecasting (LF) using a recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) for Kermanshah City. Imagine if there is a need for electricity in a region in the coming years, we will have to build a power plant or reinforce transmission lines, so this will be resolved if accurate forecasts are made at the right time. Furthermore, suppose that by building distributed generation plants, and predicting future consumption, we can conclude that production will be more than consumption, so we will seek to export energy to other countries and make decisions on this. In this paper, a novel combination of neural networks (NNs) and type-2 fuzzy systems (T2FSs) is used for load forecasting. Adding feedback to the fuzzy neural network can also benefit from past moments. This feedback structure is called a recurrent fuzzy neural network. In this paper, Kermanshah urban electrical load data is used. The simulation results prove the efficiency of this method for forecasting the electrical load. We found that we can accurately predict the electrical load of the city for the next day with 98% accuracy. The accuracy index is the evaluation of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The main contributions are: (1) Introducing a new fuzzy neural network. (2) Improving and increasing the accuracy of forecasting using the proposed fuzzy neural network. (3) Taking data from a specific area (Kermanshah City) and forecasting the electrical load for that area. (4) The ability to enter new data without calculations from the beginning.

Suggested Citation

  • Man-Wen Tian & Khalid Alattas & Fayez El-Sousy & Abdullah Alanazi & Ardashir Mohammadzadeh & Jafar Tavoosi & Saleh Mobayen & Paweł Skruch, 2022. "A New Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting by Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:9:p:3034-:d:798541
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/9/3034/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/9/3034/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Linfeng Lv & Juncheng Wang & Jiangqi Long, 2021. "Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Anti-Lock Braking Control for Electric Vehicles under Complex Road Conditions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Janusz Sowinski, 2021. "The Impact of the Selection of Exogenous Variables in the ANFIS Model on the Results of the Daily Load Forecast in the Power Company," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Cristina Hora & Florin Ciprian Dan & Gabriel Bendea & Calin Secui, 2022. "Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting during Atypical Consumption Behavior," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    4. Grzegorz Dudek, 2021. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Neural Networks with Pattern Similarity-Based Error Weights," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Mengran Zhou & Tianyu Hu & Kai Bian & Wenhao Lai & Feng Hu & Oumaima Hamrani & Ziwei Zhu, 2021. "Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Grey Wolf Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-17, August.
    6. Janusz Sowinski, 2022. "Application of Real Options Approach to Analyse Economic Efficiency of Power Plant with CCS Installation under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Atif Maqbool Khan & Artur Wyrwa, 2024. "A Survey of Quantitative Techniques in Electricity Consumption—A Global Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-38, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elzbieta Szychta & Leszek Szychta, 2021. "Collective Losses of Low Power Cage Induction Motors—A New Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Ntumba Marc-Alain Mutombo & Bubele Papy Numbi, 2022. "Development of a Linear Regression Model Based on the Most Influential Predictors for a Research Office Cooling Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Tadeusz A. Grzeszczyk & Michal K. Grzeszczyk, 2022. "Justifying Short-Term Load Forecasts Obtained with the Use of Neural Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Taorong Jia & Lixiao Yao & Guoqing Yang & Qi He, 2022. "A Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method of Based on the CEEMDAN-MVO-GRU," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    6. Grzegorz Dudek, 2021. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Neural Networks with Pattern Similarity-Based Error Weights," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Marta Moure-Garrido & Celeste Campo & Carlos Garcia-Rubio, 2022. "Entropy-Based Anomaly Detection in Household Electricity Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
    8. Chang, Chih-Hao & Chen, Zih-Bing & Huang, Shih-Feng, 2022. "Forecasting of high-resolution electricity consumption with stochastic climatic covariates via a functional time series approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    9. Rafał Trzaska & Adam Sulich & Michał Organa & Jerzy Niemczyk & Bartosz Jasiński, 2021. "Digitalization Business Strategies in Energy Sector: Solving Problems with Uncertainty under Industry 4.0 Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Jingming Su & Xuguang Han & Yan Hong, 2023. "Short Term Power Load Forecasting Based on PSVMD-CGA Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    11. Andriy Chaban & Marek Lis & Andrzej Szafraniec & Vitaliy Levoniuk, 2022. "An Application of the Hamilton–Ostrogradsky Principle to the Modeling of an Asymmetrically Loaded Three-Phase Power Line," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-19, November.
    12. Athanasios Ioannis Arvanitidis & Dimitrios Bargiotas & Dimitrios Kontogiannis & Athanasios Fevgas & Miltiadis Alamaniotis, 2022. "Optimized Data-Driven Models for Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Signal Decomposition and Clustering Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-24, October.
    13. Pedro M. R. Bento & Jose A. N. Pombo & Maria R. A. Calado & Silvio J. P. S. Mariano, 2021. "Stacking Ensemble Methodology Using Deep Learning and ARIMA Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, November.
    14. Huazhu Xue & Hui Wu & Guotao Dong & Jianjun Gao, 2023. "A Hybrid Forecasting Model to Simulate the Runoff of the Upper Heihe River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    15. Stefan Ungureanu & Vasile Topa & Andrei Cristinel Cziker, 2021. "Analysis for Non-Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Machine Learning and Statistical Methods with Financial Impact on the Power Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-26, October.
    16. Hamid M. Pouran & Seyed M. Karimi & Mariana Padilha Campos Lopes & Yong Sheng, 2022. "What China’s Environmental Policy Means for PV Solar, Electric Vehicles, and Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-13, November.
    17. Feras Alasali & Khaled Nusair & Lina Alhmoud & Eyad Zarour, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand and Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, January.
    18. Umar Javed & Khalid Ijaz & Muhammad Jawad & Ejaz A. Ansari & Noman Shabbir & Lauri Kütt & Oleksandr Husev, 2021. "Exploratory Data Analysis Based Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting: A Comprehensive Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    19. Houd Al-Obaidli & Rajesh Govindan & Tareq Al-Ansari, 2023. "Multidimensional Risk-Based Real Options Valuation for Low-Carbon Cogeneration Pathways," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:9:p:3034-:d:798541. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.