IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i3p1250-d1045304.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multidimensional Risk-Based Real Options Valuation for Low-Carbon Cogeneration Pathways

Author

Listed:
  • Houd Al-Obaidli

    (Division of Sustainable Development, College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, Doha P.O. Box 5825, Qatar)

  • Rajesh Govindan

    (Division of Sustainable Development, College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, Doha P.O. Box 5825, Qatar)

  • Tareq Al-Ansari

    (Division of Sustainable Development, College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, Doha P.O. Box 5825, Qatar)

Abstract

Energy price fluctuations pose a significant risk and uncertainty to financial investments for new developments in conventional power and freshwater cogeneration facilities. This study attempts to address the problem of making robust valuation for low-carbon energy project investments subject to multi-dimensional price risk, particularly looking at some key research questions: (a) how does the correlation structure, or independence, between the price risks affect the project value; and (b) does adding flexibility in investment enhance or worsen the project valuation, given (a). This study identified three price factors with significant fluctuations that impact conventional power generation, namely: wholesale electricity spot price, natural gas spot price, and CO 2 market price. The price factors were used to construct a multidimensional risk model and evaluate investment decisions for cogeneration project expansion in the future based on a low-carbon energy mix. To this end, five cogeneration configurations using combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) integrated with solar photovoltaics (PV) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies were assessed. A combined price risk was initially estimated by transforming the given price factors representing maximum covariance using principal component analysis (PCA). The trend and volatilities in the major principal component scores (the combined price risk indicator) were modelled using the geometric Brownian motion stochastic process, whose parameters were determined and then used to perform time-series simulation and generate multiple realisations of the principal component. A back transformation was then applied to obtain the simulated values representing future uncertainties in the price factors. The effect of price risk and uncertainties were subsequently evaluated using a recombining binomial lattice model for real options analysis (ROA). There were financial gains when PV was mixed with conventional natural gas-fired technology. Investment in cogeneration configurations with (a) 25% PV share provided a 53% gain in the extended net present value (e–NPV); and (b) 50% PV share provided a 124% e–NPV gain when compared to the baseline cogeneration system with no PV shares. The analyses demonstrate that PV technology is a better hedging option than CCS against future market uncertainty and price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Houd Al-Obaidli & Rajesh Govindan & Tareq Al-Ansari, 2023. "Multidimensional Risk-Based Real Options Valuation for Low-Carbon Cogeneration Pathways," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1250-:d:1045304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1250/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1250/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Janusz Sowinski, 2022. "Application of Real Options Approach to Analyse Economic Efficiency of Power Plant with CCS Installation under Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Antonio Di Bari, 2020. "A Real Options Approach to Valuate Solar Energy Investment with Public Authority Incentives: The Italian Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Lai, Chun Sing & Locatelli, Giorgio, 2021. "Valuing the option to prototype: A case study with Generation Integrated Energy Storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Zhang, M.M. & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Ding, H., 2019. "Evaluating uncertain investment decisions in low-carbon transition toward renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 1049-1060.
    5. Agaton, Casper Boongaling & Guno, Charmaine Samala & Villanueva, Resy Ordona & Villanueva, Riza Ordona, 2020. "Economic analysis of waste-to-energy investment in the Philippines: A real options approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    6. Pless, Jacquelyn & Arent, Douglas J. & Logan, Jeffrey & Cochran, Jaquelin & Zinaman, Owen, 2016. "Quantifying the value of investing in distributed natural gas and renewable electricity systems as complements: Applications of discounted cash flow and real options analysis with stochastic inputs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 378-390.
    7. Das Gupta, Supratim, 2021. "Using real options to value capacity additions and investment expenditures in renewable energies in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    8. Siddiqui, Afzal & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2010. "How to proceed with competing alternative energy technologies: A real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 817-830, July.
    9. Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf & Kougias, Ioannis & Taylor, Nigel & Thiel, Christian, 2020. "How photovoltaics can contribute to GHG emission reductions of 55% in the EU by 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Rios, Daniel & Blanco, Gerardo & Olsina, Fernando, 2019. "Integrating Real Options Analysis with long-term electricity market models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 188-205.
    11. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    12. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2019. "The value of enhanced flexibility of gas-fired power plants: A real options analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raisa Pérez-Vas & Félix Puime Guillén & Joaquín Enríquez-Díaz, 2021. "Valuation of a Company Producing and Trading Seaweed for Human Consumption: Classical Methods vs. Real Options," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, May.
    2. Casper Boongaling Agaton, 2022. "Will a Geopolitical Conflict Accelerate Energy Transition in Oil-Importing Countries? A Case Study of the Philippines from a Real Options Perspective," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, June.
    3. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    4. Zhang, Mingming & Liu, Liyun & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Valuing investment decisions of renewable energy projects considering changing volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Martine Van den Boomen & Sjoerd Van der Meulen & Jonathan Van Ekris & Roel Spanjers & Olle Ten Voorde & Janwim Mulder & Peter Blommaart, 2021. "Optimized Expansion Strategy for a Hydrogen Pipe Network in the Port of Rotterdam with Compound Real Options Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Araya, Natalia & Ramírez, Yendery & Cisternas, Luis A. & Kraslawski, Andrzej, 2021. "Use of real options to enhance water-energy nexus in mine tailings management," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    7. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2019. "Energiewende @ Risk: On the Continuation of Renewable Power Generation at the End of Public Policy Support," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    8. Or, Bartu & Bilgin, Gozde & Akcay, Emre Caner & Dikmen, Irem & Birgonul, M. Talat, 2024. "Real options valuation of photovoltaic investments: A case from Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    9. Fabianek, Paul & Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2024. "A sequential real options analysis for renewable power-to-hydrogen plants for Germany and California," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    10. Chen, Zhiyuan & Wang, Feng & Wang, Tieli & He, Rulin & Hu, Jieli & Li, Li & Luo, Ying & Qin, Yingling & Wang, Dingliang, 2024. "A real options approach to renewable energy module end-of-life decisions under multiple uncertainties: Application to PV and wind in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    11. Majumder, Suman & De, Krishnarti & Kumar, Praveen & Sengupta, Bodhisattva & Biswas, Pabitra Kumar, 2021. "Techno-commercial analysis of sustainable E-bus-based public transit systems: An Indian case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Adkins, Roger & Paxson, Dean, 2019. "Rescaling-contraction with a lower cost technology when revenue declines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 574-586.
    13. Biancardi, Marta & Di Bari, Antonio & Villani, Giovanni, 2021. "R&D investment decision on smart cities: Energy sustainability and opportunity," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P2).
    14. Svana Helen Björnsdóttir & Pall Jensson & Saemundur E. Thorsteinsson & Ioannis M. Dokas & Helgi Thor Ingason, 2023. "Aligning Stakeholders and Actors: A New Safety and Security-Based Design Approach for Major National Infrastructures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-44, December.
    15. David John LePoire, 2024. "Navigating Energy and Climate Transitions: Striking a Delicate Balance," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, August.
    16. Jungmin An & Dong-Kwan Kim & Jinyeong Lee & Sung-Kwan Joo, 2021. "Least Squares Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Decision-Making Method for Photovoltaic Investment in Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-14, September.
    17. Maren Helen Meyer & Sandra Dullau & Pascal Scholz & Markus Andreas Meyer & Sabine Tischew, 2023. "Bee-Friendly Native Seed Mixtures for the Greening of Solar Parks," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, June.
    18. Yuqun Dong & Yaming Zhuang, 2023. "Research on an Investment Decision Model of Waste Incineration Power under Demand Guarantee Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, July.
    19. Ding, Song & Tao, Zui & Zhang, Huahan & Li, Yao, 2022. "Forecasting nuclear energy consumption in China and America: An optimized structure-adaptative grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    20. Sun, Bo & Fan, Boyang & Zhang, Yifan & Xie, Jingdong, 2023. "Investment decisions and strategies of China's energy storage technology under policy uncertainty: A real options approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1250-:d:1045304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.