IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i5p1852-d762858.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Justifying Short-Term Load Forecasts Obtained with the Use of Neural Models

Author

Listed:
  • Tadeusz A. Grzeszczyk

    (Faculty of Management, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Narbutta 85, 02-524 Warsaw, Poland)

  • Michal K. Grzeszczyk

    (Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology, ul. Nowowiejska 15/19, 00-665 Warsaw, Poland
    Sano—Centre for Computational Personalised Medicine—International Research Foundation, ul. Nawojki 11, 30-072 Cracow, Poland)

Abstract

There is a lot of research on the neural models used for short-term load forecasting (STLF), which is crucial for improving the sustainable operation of energy systems with increasing technical, economic, and environmental requirements. Neural networks are computationally powerful; however, the lack of clear, readable and trustworthy justification of STLF obtained using such models is a serious problem that needs to be tackled. The article proposes an approach based on the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) method that supports reliable premises justifying and explaining the forecasts. The use of the proposed approach makes it possible to improve the reliability of heuristic and experimental neural modeling processes, the results of which are difficult to interpret. Explaining the forecasting may facilitate the justification of the selection and the improvement of neural models for STLF, while contributing to a better understanding of the obtained results and broadening the knowledge and experience supporting the enhancement of energy systems security based on reliable forecasts and simplifying dispatch decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Tadeusz A. Grzeszczyk & Michal K. Grzeszczyk, 2022. "Justifying Short-Term Load Forecasts Obtained with the Use of Neural Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:5:p:1852-:d:762858
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/5/1852/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/5/1852/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tongxiang Liu & Yu Jin & Yuyang Gao, 2019. "A New Hybrid Approach for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Applying Support Vector Machine with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Whale Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Tao Hong & Pierre Pinson & Yi Wang & Rafal Weron & Dazhi Yang & Hamidreza Zareipour, 2020. "Energy forecasting: A review and outlook," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/20/08, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
    3. Gu, Chenjia & Zhang, Yao & Wang, Jianxue & Li, Qingtao, 2021. "Joint planning of electrical storage and gas storage in power-gas distribution network considering high-penetration electric vehicle and gas vehicle," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    4. Yanou Ramon & David Martens & Foster Provost & Theodoros Evgeniou, 2020. "A comparison of instance-level counterfactual explanation algorithms for behavioral and textual data: SEDC, LIME-C and SHAP-C," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 14(4), pages 801-819, December.
    5. Simon Pezzutto & Gianluca Grilli & Stefano Zambotti & Stefan Dunjic, 2018. "Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    6. Gwiman Bak & Youngchul Bae, 2020. "Predicting the Amount of Electric Power Transaction Using Deep Learning Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-30, December.
    7. Lindberg, K.B. & Seljom, P. & Madsen, H. & Fischer, D. & Korpås, M., 2019. "Long-term electricity load forecasting: Current and future trends," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 102-119.
    8. Huang, Qian & Li, Jinghua & Zhu, Mengshu, 2020. "An improved convolutional neural network with load range discretization for probabilistic load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Mohamed Massaoudi & Shady S. Refaat & Haitham Abu-Rub & Ines Chihi & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2020. "PLS-CNN-BiLSTM: An End-to-End Algorithm-Based Savitzky–Golay Smoothing and Evolution Strategy for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-29, October.
    10. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    11. Grzegorz Dudek, 2021. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Neural Networks with Pattern Similarity-Based Error Weights," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    12. Seyedeh Narjes Fallah & Mehdi Ganjkhani & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Kwok-wing Chau, 2019. "Computational Intelligence on Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Methodological Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Da Liu & Kun Sun & Han Huang & Pingzhou Tang, 2018. "Monthly Load Forecasting Based on Economic Data by Decomposition Integration Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, September.
    14. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    15. Alvarado-Barrios, Lázaro & Rodríguez del Nozal, Álvaro & Boza Valerino, Juan & García Vera, Ignacio & Martínez-Ramos, Jose L., 2020. "Stochastic unit commitment in microgrids: Influence of the load forecasting error and the availability of energy storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2060-2069.
    16. Aqdas Naz & Muhammad Umar Javed & Nadeem Javaid & Tanzila Saba & Musaed Alhussein & Khursheed Aurangzeb, 2019. "Short-Term Electric Load and Price Forecasting Using Enhanced Extreme Learning Machine Optimization in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-30, March.
    17. Heydari, Azim & Majidi Nezhad, Meysam & Pirshayan, Elmira & Astiaso Garcia, Davide & Keynia, Farshid & De Santoli, Livio, 2020. "Short-term electricity price and load forecasting in isolated power grids based on composite neural network and gravitational search optimization algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    18. Habeebur Rahman & Iniyan Selvarasan & Jahitha Begum A, 2018. "Short-Term Forecasting of Total Energy Consumption for India-A Black Box Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pinheiro, Marco G. & Madeira, Sara C. & Francisco, Alexandre P., 2023. "Short-term electricity load forecasting—A systematic approach from system level to secondary substations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    2. Saima Akhtar & Sulman Shahzad & Asad Zaheer & Hafiz Sami Ullah & Heybet Kilic & Radomir Gono & Michał Jasiński & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2023. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Models: A Review of Challenges, Progress, and the Road Ahead," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-29, May.
    3. Shadi Tehrani & Jesús Juan & Eduardo Caro, 2022. "Electricity Spot Price Modeling and Forecasting in European Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-23, August.
    4. Leonard Burg & Gonca Gürses-Tran & Reinhard Madlener & Antonello Monti, 2021. "Comparative Analysis of Load Forecasting Models for Varying Time Horizons and Load Aggregation Levels," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Jonathan Roth & Jayashree Chadalawada & Rishee K. Jain & Clayton Miller, 2021. "Uncertainty Matters: Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting for Residential Smart Meter Prediction, Segmentation, and Behavioral Measurement and Verification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Umme Mumtahina & Sanath Alahakoon & Peter Wolfs, 2024. "Hyperparameter Tuning of Load-Forecasting Models Using Metaheuristic Optimization Algorithms—A Systematic Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-51, October.
    9. Stefano Bianchi & Allegra De Filippo & Sandro Magnani & Gabriele Mosaico & Federico Silvestro, 2021. "VIRTUS Project: A Scalable Aggregation Platform for the Intelligent Virtual Management of Distributed Energy Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-31, June.
    10. Bin Li & Mingzhen Lu & Yiyi Zhang & Jia Huang, 2019. "A Weekend Load Forecasting Model Based on Semi-Parametric Regression Analysis Considering Weather and Load Interaction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Roman V. Klyuev & Irbek D. Morgoev & Angelika D. Morgoeva & Oksana A. Gavrina & Nikita V. Martyushev & Egor A. Efremenkov & Qi Mengxu, 2022. "Methods of Forecasting Electric Energy Consumption: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-33, November.
    12. Lago, Jesus & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & De Schutter, Bart & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    13. Hany Habbak & Mohamed Mahmoud & Khaled Metwally & Mostafa M. Fouda & Mohamed I. Ibrahem, 2023. "Load Forecasting Techniques and Their Applications in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.
    14. Nikolaos Kolokas & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dimitrios Tzovaras, 2021. "Multi-Step Energy Demand and Generation Forecasting with Confidence Used for Specification-Free Aggregate Demand Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-36, May.
    15. Ignacio Mauleón, 2021. "Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.
    16. Adnan Yousaf & Rao Muhammad Asif & Mustafa Shakir & Ateeq Ur Rehman & Mohmmed S. Adrees, 2021. "An Improved Residential Electricity Load Forecasting Using a Machine-Learning-Based Feature Selection Approach and a Proposed Integration Strategy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, May.
    17. Li, Ke & Mu, Yuchen & Yang, Fan & Wang, Haiyang & Yan, Yi & Zhang, Chenghui, 2024. "Joint forecasting of source-load-price for integrated energy system based on multi-task learning and hybrid attention mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    18. Pellini, Elisabetta, 2021. "Estimating income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand with Autometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    19. Behm, Christian & Nolting, Lars & Praktiknjo, Aaron, 2020. "How to model European electricity load profiles using artificial neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    20. Aneeque A. Mir & Mohammed Alghassab & Kafait Ullah & Zafar A. Khan & Yuehong Lu & Muhammad Imran, 2020. "A Review of Electricity Demand Forecasting in Low and Middle Income Countries: The Demand Determinants and Horizons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-35, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:5:p:1852-:d:762858. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.