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Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States: A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandros Korkovelos

    (Division of Energy Systems, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvägen 68, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Dimitrios Mentis

    (Division of Energy Systems, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvägen 68, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
    World Resources Institute, Washington, DC 20002, USA)

  • Morgan Bazilian

    (Division of Energy Systems, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvägen 68, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
    Colorado School of Mines, 1500 Illinois St., Golden, CO 80 401, USA)

  • Mark Howells

    (Department of Geography, Climate Compatible Growth (CCG) Program, Loughborough University, Epinal Way, Loughborough LE11 3TU, Leicestershire, UK)

  • Anwar Saraj

    (Geomatics and Engineering Department, Kabul Polytechnic University, Bagh-e-Bala Road, 5th District, Kabul 1010, Afghanistan)

  • Sulaiman Fayez Hotaki

    (Geomatics and Engineering Department, Kabul Polytechnic University, Bagh-e-Bala Road, 5th District, Kabul 1010, Afghanistan)

  • Fanny Missfeldt-Ringius

    (The World Bank Group, Washington, DC 40433, USA)

Abstract

Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandros Korkovelos & Dimitrios Mentis & Morgan Bazilian & Mark Howells & Anwar Saraj & Sulaiman Fayez Hotaki & Fanny Missfeldt-Ringius, 2020. "Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States: A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-34, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:777-:d:311377
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    2. Andrés González-García & Pedro Ciller & Stephen Lee & Rafael Palacios & Fernando de Cuadra García & José Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga, 2022. "A Rising Role for Decentralized Solar Minigrids in Integrated Rural Electrification Planning? Large-Scale, Least-Cost, and Customer-Wise Design of Grid and Off-Grid Supply Systems in Uganda," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-31, June.
    3. Menghwani, Vikas & Zerriffi, Hisham & Korkovelos, Alexandros & Khavari, Babak & Sahlberg, Andreas & Howells, Mark & Mentis, Dimitris, 2020. "Planning with justice: Using spatial modelling to incorporate justice in electricity pricing – The case of Tanzania," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    4. Ioannis Pappis & Andreas Sahlberg & Tewodros Walle & Oliver Broad & Elusiyan Eludoyin & Mark Howells & Will Usher, 2021. "Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
    5. Shettima, Abdulkadir & Elheddad, Mohammed & Bassim, Mohga & Alfar, Abdelrahman J.K., 2023. "The impact of conflict on energy poverty: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    6. Alexandros Korkovelos & Hisham Zerriffi & Mark Howells & Morgan Bazilian & H-Holger Rogner & Francesco Fuso Nerini, 2020. "A Retrospective Analysis of Energy Access with a Focus on the Role of Mini-Grids," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-29, February.

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