IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i22p7664-d680311.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Design of Ensemble Forecasting Models for Home Energy Management Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Karol Bot

    (Faculty of Science & Technology, University of Algarve, 8005-294 Faro, Portugal)

  • Samira Santos

    (Faculty of Science & Technology, University of Algarve, 8005-294 Faro, Portugal)

  • Inoussa Laouali

    (Faculty of Science & Technology, University of Algarve, 8005-294 Faro, Portugal
    SIGER, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Fez 1049-001, Morocco)

  • Antonio Ruano

    (Faculty of Science & Technology, University of Algarve, 8005-294 Faro, Portugal
    IDMEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1950-044 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Maria da Graça Ruano

    (Faculty of Science & Technology, University of Algarve, 8005-294 Faro, Portugal
    CISUC, University of Coimbra, 3030-290 Coimbra, Portugal)

Abstract

The increasing levels of energy consumption worldwide is raising issues with respect to surpassing supply limits, causing severe effects on the environment, and the exhaustion of energy resources. Buildings are one of the most relevant sectors in terms of energy consumption; as such, efficient Home or Building Management Systems are an important topic of research. This study discusses the use of ensemble techniques in order to improve the performance of artificial neural networks models used for energy forecasting in residential houses. The case study is a residential house, located in Portugal, that is equipped with PV generation and battery storage and controlled by a Home Energy Management System (HEMS). It has been shown that the ensemble forecasting results are superior to single selected models, which were already excellent. A simple procedure was proposed for selecting the models to be used in the ensemble, together with a heuristic to determine the number of models.

Suggested Citation

  • Karol Bot & Samira Santos & Inoussa Laouali & Antonio Ruano & Maria da Graça Ruano, 2021. "Design of Ensemble Forecasting Models for Home Energy Management Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-37, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:22:p:7664-:d:680311
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7664/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/22/7664/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianluca Bontempi & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Yann-Aël Le Borgne, 2013. "Machine learning strategies for time series forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/167761, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-118, March.
    3. Simon Wenninger & Christian Wiethe, 2021. "Benchmarking Energy Quantification Methods to Predict Heating Energy Performance of Residential Buildings in Germany," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 63(3), pages 223-242, June.
    4. Ali Movahedi & Sybil Derrible, 2021. "Interrelationships between electricity, gas, and water consumption in large‐scale buildings," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(4), pages 932-947, August.
    5. Jessica Walther & Matthias Weigold, 2021. "A Systematic Review on Predicting and Forecasting the Electrical Energy Consumption in the Manufacturing Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Nesreen Ahmed & Amir Atiya & Neamat El Gayar & Hisham El-Shishiny, 2010. "An Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 594-621.
    7. Geyer, Philipp & Singaravel, Sundaravelpandian, 2018. "Component-based machine learning for performance prediction in building design," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1439-1453.
    8. Rodolfo Gordillo-Orquera & Luis Miguel Lopez-Ramos & Sergio Muñoz-Romero & Paz Iglesias-Casarrubios & Diego Arcos-Avilés & Antonio G. Marques & José Luis Rojo-Álvarez, 2018. "Analyzing and Forecasting Electrical Load Consumption in Healthcare Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, February.
    9. Tran, Duc-Hoc & Luong, Duc-Long & Chou, Jui-Sheng, 2020. "Nature-inspired metaheuristic ensemble model for forecasting energy consumption in residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    10. Shen, Meng & Lu, Yujie & Wei, Kua Harn & Cui, Qingbin, 2020. "Prediction of household electricity consumption and effectiveness of concerted intervention strategies based on occupant behaviour and personality traits," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Hongcai, 2020. "Novel deep supervised ML models with feature selection approach for large-scale utilities and buildings short and medium-term load requirement forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    12. Nikolaos Koltsaklis & Ioannis P. Panapakidis & David Pozo & Georgios C. Christoforidis, 2021. "A Prosumer Model Based on Smart Home Energy Management and Forecasting Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, March.
    13. Anam-Nawaz Khan & Naeem Iqbal & Atif Rizwan & Rashid Ahmad & Do-Hyeun Kim, 2021. "An Ensemble Energy Consumption Forecasting Model Based on Spatial-Temporal Clustering Analysis in Residential Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-25, May.
    14. Koschwitz, D. & Frisch, J. & van Treeck, C., 2018. "Data-driven heating and cooling load predictions for non-residential buildings based on support vector machine regression and NARX Recurrent Neural Network: A comparative study on district scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 134-142.
    15. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "A comparison of day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on deep learning neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Stefan Arens & Karen Derendorf & Frank Schuldt & Karsten Von Maydell & Carsten Agert, 2018. "Effect of EV Movement Schedule and Machine Learning-Based Load Forecasting on Electricity Cost of a Single Household," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, October.
    17. Aslam, Sheraz & Herodotou, Herodotos & Mohsin, Syed Muhammad & Javaid, Nadeem & Ashraf, Nouman & Aslam, Shahzad, 2021. "A survey on deep learning methods for power load and renewable energy forecasting in smart microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Federico Divina & Miguel García Torres & Francisco A. Goméz Vela & José Luis Vázquez Noguera, 2019. "A Comparative Study of Time Series Forecasting Methods for Short Term Electric Energy Consumption Prediction in Smart Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.
    19. Rahman, Aowabin & Srikumar, Vivek & Smith, Amanda D., 2018. "Predicting electricity consumption for commercial and residential buildings using deep recurrent neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 372-385.
    20. Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Connolly, David & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2017. "Smart energy and smart energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 556-565.
    21. Hosseini, Sayed Saeed & Agbossou, Kodjo & Kelouwani, Sousso & Cardenas, Alben, 2017. "Non-intrusive load monitoring through home energy management systems: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1266-1274.
    22. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.
    23. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    24. Zhong, Hai & Wang, Jiajun & Jia, Hongjie & Mu, Yunfei & Lv, Shilei, 2019. "Vector field-based support vector regression for building energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 403-414.
    25. Antonio Ruano & Alvaro Hernandez & Jesus Ureña & Maria Ruano & Juan Garcia, 2019. "NILM Techniques for Intelligent Home Energy Management and Ambient Assisted Living: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-29, June.
    26. Tomasz Szul & Krzysztof Nęcka & Thomas G. Mathia, 2020. "Neural Methods Comparison for Prediction of Heating Energy Based on Few Hundreds Enhanced Buildings in Four Season’s Climate," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-17, October.
    27. Fathi, Soheil & Srinivasan, Ravi & Fenner, Andriel & Fathi, Sahand, 2020. "Machine learning applications in urban building energy performance forecasting: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    28. Bassamzadeh, Nastaran & Ghanem, Roger, 2017. "Multiscale stochastic prediction of electricity demand in smart grids using Bayesian networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 369-380.
    29. Jin, Xin & Baker, Kyri & Christensen, Dane & Isley, Steven, 2017. "Foresee: A user-centric home energy management system for energy efficiency and demand response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1583-1595.
    30. Liu, Che & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Chenghui & Li, Fan, 2020. "A hybrid prediction model for residential electricity consumption using holt-winters and extreme learning machine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    31. Tomasz Szul & Sylwester Tabor & Krzysztof Pancerz, 2021. "Application of the BORUTA Algorithm to Input Data Selection for a Model Based on Rough Set Theory (RST) to Prediction Energy Consumption for Building Heating," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-13, May.
    32. Karol Bot & Inoussa Laouali & António Ruano & Maria da Graça Ruano, 2021. "Home Energy Management Systems with Branch-and-Bound Model-Based Predictive Control Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-27, September.
    33. Wang, Zeyu & Srinivasan, Ravi S., 2017. "A review of artificial intelligence based building energy use prediction: Contrasting the capabilities of single and ensemble prediction models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 796-808.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Isaías Gomes & Karol Bot & Maria Graça Ruano & António Ruano, 2022. "Recent Techniques Used in Home Energy Management Systems: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-41, April.
    2. Roman V. Klyuev & Irbek D. Morgoev & Angelika D. Morgoeva & Oksana A. Gavrina & Nikita V. Martyushev & Egor A. Efremenkov & Qi Mengxu, 2022. "Methods of Forecasting Electric Energy Consumption: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-33, November.
    3. Ismail Aouichak & Sébastien Jacques & Sébastien Bissey & Cédric Reymond & Téo Besson & Jean-Charles Le Bunetel, 2022. "A Bidirectional Grid-Connected DC–AC Converter for Autonomous and Intelligent Electricity Storage in the Residential Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Alberto Barbaresi & Mattia Ceccarelli & Giulia Menichetti & Daniele Torreggiani & Patrizia Tassinari & Marco Bovo, 2022. "Application of Machine Learning Models for Fast and Accurate Predictions of Building Energy Need," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    3. Amal A. Al-Shargabi & Abdulbasit Almhafdy & Dina M. Ibrahim & Manal Alghieth & Francisco Chiclana, 2021. "Tuning Deep Neural Networks for Predicting Energy Consumption in Arid Climate Based on Buildings Characteristics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    4. Fathi, Soheil & Srinivasan, Ravi & Fenner, Andriel & Fathi, Sahand, 2020. "Machine learning applications in urban building energy performance forecasting: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Saidjon Shiralievich Tavarov & Pavel Matrenin & Murodbek Safaraliev & Mihail Senyuk & Svetlana Beryozkina & Inga Zicmane, 2023. "Forecasting of Electricity Consumption by Household Consumers Using Fuzzy Logic Based on the Development Plan of the Power System of the Republic of Tajikistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Gao, Lei & Liu, Tianyuan & Cao, Tao & Hwang, Yunho & Radermacher, Reinhard, 2021. "Comparing deep learning models for multi energy vectors prediction on multiple types of building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    7. Wang, Zeyu & Liu, Jian & Zhang, Yuanxin & Yuan, Hongping & Zhang, Ruixue & Srinivasan, Ravi S., 2021. "Practical issues in implementing machine-learning models for building energy efficiency: Moving beyond obstacles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Ding, Zhikun & Chen, Weilin & Hu, Ting & Xu, Xiaoxiao, 2021. "Evolutionary double attention-based long short-term memory model for building energy prediction: Case study of a green building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    9. Peplinski, McKenna & Dilkina, Bistra & Chen, Mo & Silva, Sam J. & Ban-Weiss, George A. & Sanders, Kelly T., 2024. "A machine learning framework to estimate residential electricity demand based on smart meter electricity, climate, building characteristics, and socioeconomic datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    10. Lu, Yakai & Tian, Zhe & Zhou, Ruoyu & Liu, Wenjing, 2021. "A general transfer learning-based framework for thermal load prediction in regional energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    11. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Dongdong & Huang, Chao, 2021. "Methodological framework for short-and medium-term energy, solar and wind power forecasting with stochastic-based machine learning approach to monetary and energy policy applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    12. Hernandez-Matheus, Alejandro & Löschenbrand, Markus & Berg, Kjersti & Fuchs, Ida & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Sumper, Andreas, 2022. "A systematic review of machine learning techniques related to local energy communities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    13. Khan, Waqas & Liao, Juo Yu & Walker, Shalika & Zeiler, Wim, 2022. "Impact assessment of varied data granularities from commercial buildings on exploration and learning mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    14. Miriam Benedetti & Francesca Bonfà & Vito Introna & Annalisa Santolamazza & Stefano Ubertini, 2019. "Real Time Energy Performance Control for Industrial Compressed Air Systems: Methodology and Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-28, October.
    15. Yue, Naihua & Caini, Mauro & Li, Lingling & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yu, 2023. "A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to multi building performance vectors prediction on gymnasiums under multiple climate conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    16. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    17. Lei, Lei & Shao, Suola & Liang, Lixia, 2024. "An evolutionary deep learning model based on EWKM, random forest algorithm, SSA and BiLSTM for building energy consumption prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    18. Shamim Akhtar & Muhamad Zahim Bin Sujod & Syed Sajjad Hussain Rizvi, 2022. "An Intelligent Data-Driven Approach for Electrical Energy Load Management Using Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, August.
    19. Tran, Duc-Hoc & Luong, Duc-Long & Chou, Jui-Sheng, 2020. "Nature-inspired metaheuristic ensemble model for forecasting energy consumption in residential buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Chen, Yibo & Zhang, Fengyi & Berardi, Umberto, 2020. "Day-ahead prediction of hourly subentry energy consumption in the building sector using pattern recognition algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:22:p:7664-:d:680311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.