IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v12y1996i1p91-118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature

Author

Listed:
  • Webby, Richard
  • O'Connor, Marcus

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus, 1996. "Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 91-118, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:12:y:1996:i:1:p:91-118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0169-2070(95)00644-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willemain, Thomas R., 1989. "Graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 179-185.
    2. Derek Bunn & George Wright, 1991. "Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 501-518, May.
    3. Everette S. Gardner, Jr. & Ed. Mckenzie, 1985. "Forecasting Trends in Time Series," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(10), pages 1237-1246, October.
    4. Nada R. Sanders & Karl B. Manrodt, 1994. "Forecasting Practices in US Corporations: Survey Results," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 92-100, April.
    5. Clemen, Robert T. & Guerard, John Jr., 1989. "Econometric GNP forecasts: Incremental information relative to naive extrapolation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 417-426.
    6. Newbold, Paul & Zumwalt, J. Kenton & Kannan, Srinivasan, 1987. "Combining forecasts to improve earnings per share prediction : An examination of electric utilities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 229-238.
    7. Goodwin, Paul & Wright, George, 1993. "Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 147-161, August.
    8. Makridakis, Spyros, 1988. "Metaforecasting : Ways of improving forecasting accuracy and usefulness," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 467-491.
    9. Eggleton, Irc, 1982. "Intuitive Time-Series Extrapolation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 68-102.
    10. Diebold, Francis X., 1989. "Forecast combination and encompassing: Reconciling two divergent literatures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 589-592.
    11. Walker, Kb & Mcclelland, La, 1991. "Management Forecasts And Statistical Prediction Model Forecasts In Corporate Budgeting," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 371-381.
    12. John B. Guerard & Carl R. Beidleman, 1987. "Composite Earnings Forecasting Efficiency," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 17(5), pages 103-113, October.
    13. Benson, P. George & Onkal, Dilek, 1992. "The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-573, December.
    14. Desanctis, Gerardine & Jarvenpaa, Sirkka L., 1989. "Graphical presentation of accounting data for financial forecasting: An experimental investigation," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 14(5-6), pages 509-525, October.
    15. MacGregor, Donald & Lichtenstein, Sarah & Slovic, Paul, 1988. "Structuring knowledge retrieval: An analysis of decomposed quantitative judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 303-323, December.
    16. Lobo, Gerald J., 1991. "Alternative methods of combining security analysts' and statistical forecasts of annual corporate earnings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 57-63, May.
    17. Fred Collopy & J. Scott Armstrong, 1992. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(10), pages 1394-1414, October.
    18. Makridakis, Spyros & Chatfield, Chris & Hibon, Michele & Lawrence, Michael & Mills, Terence & Ord, Keith & Simmons, LeRoy F., 1993. "The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-22, April.
    19. Balzer, William K. & Sulsky, Lorne M. & Hammer, Leslie B. & Sumner, Kenneth E., 1992. "Task information, cognitive information, or functional validity information: Which components of cognitive feedback affect performance?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-54, October.
    20. O'Connor, Marcus, 1989. "Models of human behaviour and confidence in judgement: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 159-169.
    21. Thomas Cook & Paul Falchi & Reynaldo Mariano, 1984. "An Urban Allocation Model Combining Time Series and Analytic Hierarchical Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 198-208, February.
    22. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
    23. Brown, Lawrence D. & Hagerman, Robert L. & Griffin, Paul A. & Zmijewski, Mark E., 1987. "Security analyst superiority relative to univariate time-series models in forecasting quarterly earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-87, April.
    24. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1987. "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 379-391.
    25. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 1992. "Exploring judgemental forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-26, June.
    26. Willemain, Thomas R., 1991. "The effect of graphical adjustment on forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-154, August.
    27. Robert Conroy & Robert Harris, 1987. "Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 725-738, June.
    28. Robert Carbone & Allan Andersen & Yvan Corriveau & Paul Piat Corson, 1983. "Comparing for Different Time Series Methods the Value of Technical Expertise Individualized Analysis, and Judgmental Adjustment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 559-566, May.
    29. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    30. William Remus, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Graphical and Tabular Data Presentations on Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 533-542, May.
    31. O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William & Griggs, Ken, 1993. "Judgemental forecasting in times of change," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 163-172, August.
    32. Brown, Lawrence D., 1988. "Comparing judgmental to extrapolative forecasts: It's time to ask why and when," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 171-173.
    33. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
    34. Bathcelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1990. "Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 3-10.
    35. M. J. Lawrence & R. H. Edmundson & M. J. O'Connor, 1986. "The Accuracy of Combining Judgemental and Statistical Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(12), pages 1521-1532, December.
    36. Abramson, Bruce & Finizza, Anthony, 1991. "Using belief networks to forecast oil prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 299-315, November.
    37. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    38. Henry, Rebecca A. & Sniezek, Janet A., 1993. "Situational Factors Affecting Judgments of Future Performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 104-132, February.
    39. Heejoon Kang, 1986. "Unstable Weights in the Combination of Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 683-695, June.
    40. Wood, Robert E., 1986. "Task complexity: Definition of the construct," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-82, February.
    41. Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
    42. William Remus, 1987. "A Study of Graphical and Tabular Displays and Their Interaction with Environmental Complexity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1200-1204, September.
    43. Lance B. Kurke & Howard E. Aldrich, 1983. "Note---Mintzberg was Right!: A Replication and Extension of The Nature of Managerial Work," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(8), pages 975-984, August.
    44. Sanders, NR & Ritzman, LP, 1990. "Improving short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 365-373.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
    2. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    3. Leitner, Johannes & Leopold-Wildburger, Ulrike, 2011. "Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 459-469, September.
    4. Goodwin, Paul, 2002. "Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 127-135, April.
    5. Welch, Eric & Bretschneider, Stuart & Rohrbaugh, John, 1998. "Accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series data: Characteristics, causes, and remediation strategies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 95-110, March.
    6. Webby, Richard & O'Connor, Marcus & Edmundson, Bob, 2005. "Forecasting support systems for the incorporation of event information: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 411-423.
    7. Lin, Vera Shanshan & Goodwin, Paul & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-174.
    8. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
    10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
    12. Song, Haiyan & Gao, Bastian Z. & Lin, Vera S., 2013. "Combining statistical and judgmental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 295-310.
    13. F Caniato & M Kalchschmidt & S Ronchi, 2011. "Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: organizational learning in an action research case," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 413-424, March.
    14. Goodwin, P., 1996. "Statistical correction of judgmental point forecasts and decisions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 551-559, October.
    15. Vokurka, Robert J. & Flores, Benito E. & Pearce, Stephen L., 1996. "Automatic feature identification and graphical support in rule-based forecasting: a comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 495-512, December.
    16. Sanders, N. R., 1997. "The impact of task properties feedback on time series judgmental forecasting tasks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 135-144, April.
    17. Petropoulos, Fotios & Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul, 2016. "Do ‘big losses’ in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts’ behaviour?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 842-852.
    18. Remus, William & O'Connor, Marcus & Griggs, Kenneth, 1995. "Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 285-293, June.
    19. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus & Edmundson, Bob, 2000. "A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 151-160, April.
    20. Petropoulos, Fotios & Goodwin, Paul & Fildes, Robert, 2017. "Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 314-324.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:12:y:1996:i:1:p:91-118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.