IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i11p2913-d178353.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of EV Movement Schedule and Machine Learning-Based Load Forecasting on Electricity Cost of a Single Household

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Arens

    (DLR Institute for Networked Energy Systems, Carl-von-Ossietzky-Str. 15, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany)

  • Karen Derendorf

    (DLR Institute for Networked Energy Systems, Carl-von-Ossietzky-Str. 15, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany)

  • Frank Schuldt

    (DLR Institute for Networked Energy Systems, Carl-von-Ossietzky-Str. 15, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany)

  • Karsten Von Maydell

    (DLR Institute for Networked Energy Systems, Carl-von-Ossietzky-Str. 15, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany)

  • Carsten Agert

    (DLR Institute for Networked Energy Systems, Carl-von-Ossietzky-Str. 15, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany)

Abstract

An energy management system (EMS) for a household energy system is proposed in this paper, which is composed of a photovoltaic (PV) generator , a home energy storage (HES), an electric vehicle (EV), an electrical household load and a grid connection, with 24 h operation horizon. The EMS objective is to reduce the electricity cost of the household by using a linear optimization algorithm. Two different EV schedules are utilized for simulations. One mainly describes rides to work and the other describes rides in a domestic context, such as rides to a supermarket. A forecast algorithm for the electrical load of the household, based on k-means clustering and an artificial neural network, is evaluated and integrated into the EMS to realistically represent the household’s load profile. It is shown that the developed forecast algorithm performs better than two of the benchmarks. Another finding is that the more storage is available at PV-production intervals, the higher the effect of forecast uncertainties and the lower the electricity cost of the household, disregarding the investment cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Arens & Karen Derendorf & Frank Schuldt & Karsten Von Maydell & Carsten Agert, 2018. "Effect of EV Movement Schedule and Machine Learning-Based Load Forecasting on Electricity Cost of a Single Household," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:11:p:2913-:d:178353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/11/2913/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/11/2913/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hao Bai & Shihong Miao & Xiaohong Ran & Chang Ye, 2015. "Optimal Dispatch Strategy of a Virtual Power Plant Containing Battery Switch Stations in a Unified Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Ricardo Vazquez & Hortensia Amaris & Monica Alonso & Gregorio Lopez & Jose Ignacio Moreno & Daniel Olmeda & Javier Coca, 2017. "Assessment of an Adaptive Load Forecasting Methodology in a Smart Grid Demonstration Project," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad & Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan & Mirian, Maryam S. & Guerrero, Josep M., 2017. "A multi-agent based energy management solution for integrated buildings and microgrid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 41-56.
    4. Kusakana, Kanzumba, 2017. "Energy management of a grid-connected hydrokinetic system under Time of Use tariff," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1325-1333.
    5. Rigo-Mariani, Rémy & Sareni, Bruno & Roboam, Xavier & Turpin, Christophe, 2014. "Optimal power dispatching strategies in smart-microgrids with storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 649-658.
    6. Cristina Rottondi & Markus Duchon & Dagmar Koss & Andrei Palamarciuc & Alessandro Pití & Giacomo Verticale & Bernhard Schätz, 2015. "An Energy Management Service for the Smart Office," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Hernández, Luis & Baladrón, Carlos & Aguiar, Javier M. & Carro, Belén & Sánchez-Esguevillas, Antonio & Lloret, Jaime, 2014. "Artificial neural networks for short-term load forecasting in microgrids environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 252-264.
    8. Bauer, Christian & Hofer, Johannes & Althaus, Hans-Jörg & Del Duce, Andrea & Simons, Andrew, 2015. "The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 871-883.
    9. Luis Hernández & Carlos Baladrón & Javier M. Aguiar & Lorena Calavia & Belén Carro & Antonio Sánchez-Esguevillas & Francisco Pérez & Ángel Fernández & Jaime Lloret, 2014. "Artificial Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Distribution Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, March.
    10. Wright, Andrew & Firth, Steven, 2007. "The nature of domestic electricity-loads and effects of time averaging on statistics and on-site generation calculations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(4), pages 389-403, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marco Pasetti & Stefano Rinaldi & Alessandra Flammini & Michela Longo & Federica Foiadelli, 2019. "Assessment of Electric Vehicle Charging Costs in Presence of Distributed Photovoltaic Generation and Variable Electricity Tariffs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Marlon Schlemminger & Raphael Niepelt & Rolf Brendel, 2021. "A Cross-Country Model for End-Use Specific Aggregated Household Load Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.
    3. Karol Bot & Samira Santos & Inoussa Laouali & Antonio Ruano & Maria da Graça Ruano, 2021. "Design of Ensemble Forecasting Models for Home Energy Management Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-37, November.
    4. Thomas Steens & Jan-Simon Telle & Benedikt Hanke & Karsten von Maydell & Carsten Agert & Gian-Luca Di Modica & Bernd Engel & Matthias Grottke, 2021. "A Forecast-Based Load Management Approach for Commercial Buildings Demonstrated on an Integration of BEV," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-25, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raji Atia & Noboru Yamada, 2016. "Distributed Renewable Generation and Storage System Sizing Based on Smart Dispatch of Microgrids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Ahmad Khan, Aftab & Naeem, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Qaisar, Saad & Anpalagan, Alagan, 2016. "A compendium of optimization objectives, constraints, tools and algorithms for energy management in microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1664-1683.
    3. Coelho, Vitor N. & Coelho, Igor M. & Coelho, Bruno N. & Reis, Agnaldo J.R. & Enayatifar, Rasul & Souza, Marcone J.F. & Guimarães, Frederico G., 2016. "A self-adaptive evolutionary fuzzy model for load forecasting problems on smart grid environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 567-584.
    4. Mohamed El-Hendawi & Hossam A. Gabbar & Gaber El-Saady & El-Nobi A. Ibrahim, 2018. "Control and EMS of a Grid-Connected Microgrid with Economical Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    5. Ricardo Vazquez & Hortensia Amaris & Monica Alonso & Gregorio Lopez & Jose Ignacio Moreno & Daniel Olmeda & Javier Coca, 2017. "Assessment of an Adaptive Load Forecasting Methodology in a Smart Grid Demonstration Project," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    7. Yuchun Li & Yinghua Han & Jinkuan Wang & Qiang Zhao, 2018. "A MBCRF Algorithm Based on Ensemble Learning for Building Demand Response Considering the Thermal Comfort," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Tu, Chunming & He, Xi & Shuai, Zhikang & Jiang, Fei, 2017. "Big data issues in smart grid – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1099-1107.
    9. Alobaidi, Mohammad H. & Chebana, Fateh & Meguid, Mohamed A., 2018. "Robust ensemble learning framework for day-ahead forecasting of household based energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 997-1012.
    10. Emilio Ghiani & Alessandro Serpi & Virginia Pilloni & Giuliana Sias & Marco Simone & Gianluca Marcialis & Giuliano Armano & Paolo Attilio Pegoraro, 2018. "A Multidisciplinary Approach for the Development of Smart Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-29, September.
    11. Yu, Lean & Wang, Zishu & Tang, Ling, 2015. "A decomposition–ensemble model with data-characteristic-driven reconstruction for crude oil price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 251-267.
    12. Xiao, Liye & Shao, Wei & Yu, Mengxia & Ma, Jing & Jin, Congjun, 2017. "Research and application of a combined model based on multi-objective optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1057-1074.
    13. Anand, Prashant & Cheong, David & Sekhar, Chandra & Santamouris, Mattheos & Kondepudi, Sekhar, 2019. "Energy saving estimation for plug and lighting load using occupancy analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1143-1161.
    14. Cheng-Wen Lee & Bing-Yi Lin, 2016. "Application of Hybrid Quantum Tabu Search with Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, October.
    15. Happy Aprillia & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2019. "Optimal Decomposition and Reconstruction of Discrete Wavelet Transformation for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Majzoobi, Alireza & Khodaei, Amin, 2017. "Application of microgrids in providing ancillary services to the utility grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 555-563.
    17. Seyedeh Narjes Fallah & Ravinesh Chand Deo & Mohammad Shojafar & Mauro Conti & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2018. "Computational Intelligence Approaches for Energy Load Forecasting in Smart Energy Management Grids: State of the Art, Future Challenges, and Research Directions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-31, March.
    18. Tansu Filik, 2016. "Improved Spatio-Temporal Linear Models for Very Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-15, March.
    19. Dedinec, Aleksandra & Filiposka, Sonja & Dedinec, Aleksandar & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2016. "Deep belief network based electricity load forecasting: An analysis of Macedonian case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1688-1700.
    20. Singh, Priyanka & Dwivedi, Pragya & Kant, Vibhor, 2019. "A hybrid method based on neural network and improved environmental adaptation method using Controlled Gaussian Mutation with real parameter for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 460-477.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:11:p:2913-:d:178353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.