An Economic Assessment of the Impact on Agriculture of the Proposed Changes in EU Biofuel Policy Mechanisms

In Poland, rapeseed production has been the fastest growing branch of plant production since 2000. Rapeseed yields have increased 2.5 times in the last 20 years. The main reason for this trend was the implementation of obligations resulting from legal acts by Member States relating to increasing the share of RES in the structure of primary energy production, and in particular relating to the share of biofuels in fuels used in transport. In Poland in the years 2010–2020, about 1.0–1.6 million tonnes of rape seeds were used for this purpose annually. Due to the fact that biofuel production competes for raw materials with the food economy, at the end of the first decade of the 21st century, many representatives of various circles intensified their voices, calling for withdrawal from the policy supporting the biofuel sector, which may have resulted in a decrease in oilseed plant cultivation areas. As a result of the research conducted here, it was determined that the place of oilseed rape in the sowing structure will be taken by rye, triticale and, on good soils, by wheat. Compared to rape, their production is characterised by lower income per 1 ha; in the years 2013–2019, these differences amounted to: wheat—8 EUR, triticale—102.3 EUR, and rye—168 EUR. This situation will deteriorate the value cereal cultivation sites and will result in a decrease in their yields. On the basis of the conducted research, the estimated value of rape as a forecrop for wheat, triticale, and rye was, respectively: 103.7; 64.6 and 46.7 EUR. An additional advantage of oilseed rape is that it is an excellent bee resource and is classified as a commodity crop, i.e., one from which significant amounts of honey can be obtained, with a net value of EUR 55 per hectare. In addition, in many agricultural holdings, as a result of forecasted changes in plant production, there will be an accumulation of field work during the harvest period, which will also affect the worse use of machinery and storage areas. The consequence of increasing the area under which cereal crops and their supply can grow may be the decline in production profitability and thus the income situation of farms, but this will be assessed at the next stage of research.