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Electrical Energy Demand Forecasting Model Development and Evaluation with Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform-Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machines Algorithms

Author

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  • Mohanad S. Al-Musaylh

    (School of Sciences, Institute of Life Sciences and the Environment, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia
    Management Technical College, Southern Technical University, Basrah 61001, Iraq)

  • Ravinesh C. Deo

    (School of Sciences, Institute of Life Sciences and the Environment, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia)

  • Yan Li

    (School of Sciences, Institute of Life Sciences and the Environment, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia)

Abstract

To support regional electricity markets, accurate and reliable energy demand ( G ) forecast models are vital stratagems for stakeholders in this sector. An online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM) model integrated with a maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) algorithm was developed using daily G data obtained from three regional campuses (i.e., Toowoomba, Ipswich, and Springfield) at the University of Southern Queensland, Australia. In training the objective and benchmark models, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) was first employed to select the most significant lagged input variables that captured historical fluctuations in the G time-series data. To address the challenges of non-stationarities associated with the model development datasets, a MODWT technique was adopted to decompose the potential model inputs into their wavelet and scaling coefficients before executing the OS-ELM model. The MODWT-PACF-OS-ELM (MPOE) performance was tested and compared with the non-wavelet equivalent based on the PACF-OS-ELM (POE) model using a range of statistical metrics, including, but not limited to, the mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE% ). For all of the three datasets, a significantly greater accuracy was achieved with the MPOE model relative to the POE model resulting in an MAPE = 4.31% vs. MAPE = 11.31%, respectively, for the case of the Toowoomba dataset, and a similarly high performance for the other two campuses. Therefore, considering the high efficacy of the proposed methodology, the study claims that the OS-ELM model performance can be improved quite significantly by integrating the model with the MODWT algorithm.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohanad S. Al-Musaylh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Yan Li, 2020. "Electrical Energy Demand Forecasting Model Development and Evaluation with Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform-Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machines Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:9:p:2307-:d:354549
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mohammed A. Shams & Hussein I. Anis & Mohammed El-Shahat, 2021. "Denoising of Heavily Contaminated Partial Discharge Signals in High-Voltage Cables Using Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-22, October.
    3. Mustafa Saglam & Catalina Spataru & Omer Ali Karaman, 2022. "Electricity Demand Forecasting with Use of Artificial Intelligence: The Case of Gokceada Island," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
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    5. Nahid Sultana & S. M. Zakir Hossain & Salma Hamad Almuhaini & Dilek Düştegör, 2022. "Bayesian Optimization Algorithm-Based Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches for Forecasting Short-Term Electricity Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, May.

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