IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i16p5950-d890153.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity Demand Forecasting with Use of Artificial Intelligence: The Case of Gokceada Island

Author

Listed:
  • Mustafa Saglam

    (Energy Institute, Bartlett School Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK)

  • Catalina Spataru

    (Energy Institute, Bartlett School Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK)

  • Omer Ali Karaman

    (Department of Electronic and Automation, Vocational School, Batman University, Batman 72100, Turkey)

Abstract

This study reviews a selection of approaches that have used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Multi Linear Regression (MLR) to forecast electricity demand for Gokceada Island. Artificial Neural Networks, Particle Swarm Optimization, and Linear Regression methods are frequently used in the literature. Imports, exports, car numbers, and tourist-passenger numbers are used as based on input values from 2014 to 2020 for Gokceada Island, and the electricity energy demands up to 2040 are estimated as an output value. The results obtained were analyzed using statistical error metrics such as R 2 , MSE, RMSE, and MAE. The confidence interval analysis of the methods was performed. The correlation matrix is used to show the relationship between the actual value and method outputs and the relationship between independent and dependent variables. It was observed that ANN yields the highest confidence interval of 95% among the method utilized, and the statistical error metrics have the highest correlation for ANN methods between electricity demand output and actual data.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Saglam & Catalina Spataru & Omer Ali Karaman, 2022. "Electricity Demand Forecasting with Use of Artificial Intelligence: The Case of Gokceada Island," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:16:p:5950-:d:890153
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/16/5950/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/16/5950/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    2. Sen, Doruk & Tunç, K.M. Murat & Günay, M. Erdem, 2021. "Forecasting electricity consumption of OECD countries: A global machine learning modeling approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Kaytez, Fazil, 2020. "A hybrid approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average and least-square support vector machine for long-term forecasting of net electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Angelopoulos, Dimitrios & Siskos, Yannis & Psarras, John, 2019. "Disaggregating time series on multiple criteria for robust forecasting: The case of long-term electricity demand in Greece," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 252-265.
    5. Kazemzadeh, Mohammad-Rasool & Amjadian, Ali & Amraee, Turaj, 2020. "A hybrid data mining driven algorithm for long term electric peak load and energy demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    6. Bedi, Jatin & Toshniwal, Durga, 2019. "Deep learning framework to forecast electricity demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1312-1326.
    7. Alkan, Ömer & Albayrak, Özlem Karadağ, 2020. "Ranking of renewable energy sources for regions in Turkey by fuzzy entropy based fuzzy COPRAS and fuzzy MULTIMOORA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 712-726.
    8. Alejandro J. del Real & Fernando Dorado & Jaime Durán, 2020. "Energy Demand Forecasting Using Deep Learning: Applications for the French Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, May.
    9. Zhang, Wenyu & Zhang, Lifang & Wang, Jianzhou & Niu, Xinsong, 2020. "Hybrid system based on a multi-objective optimization and kernel approximation for multi-scale wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    10. Ismail Shah & Faheem Jan & Sajid Ali & Tahir Mehmood, 2022. "Functional Data Approach for Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-14, June.
    11. Ibrahim Soyler & Ercan Izgi, 2022. "Electricity Demand Forecasting of Hospital Buildings in Istanbul," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, July.
    12. Nikolaos Kolokas & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dimitrios Tzovaras, 2021. "Multi-Step Energy Demand and Generation Forecasting with Confidence Used for Specification-Free Aggregate Demand Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-36, May.
    13. Günay, M. Erdem, 2016. "Forecasting annual gross electricity demand by artificial neural networks using predicted values of socio-economic indicators and climatic conditions: Case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 92-101.
    14. Jun Hao & Xiaolei Sun & Qianqian Feng, 2020. "A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, January.
    15. Kialashaki, Arash & Reisel, John R., 2014. "Development and validation of artificial neural network models of the energy demand in the industrial sector of the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 749-760.
    16. Xu, Yuan & Zhang, Mingqing & Ye, Liangliang & Zhu, Qunxiong & Geng, Zhiqiang & He, Yan-Lin & Han, Yongming, 2018. "A novel prediction intervals method integrating an error & self-feedback extreme learning machine with particle swarm optimization for energy consumption robust prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 137-146.
    17. Atul Anand & L Suganthi, 2018. "Hybrid GA-PSO Optimization of Artificial Neural Network for Forecasting Electricity Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, March.
    18. Şahin, Utkucan & Ballı, Serkan & Chen, Yan, 2021. "Forecasting seasonal electricity generation in European countries under Covid-19-induced lockdown using fractional grey prediction models and machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    19. Eric Cebekhulu & Adeiza James Onumanyi & Sherrin John Isaac, 2022. "Performance Analysis of Machine Learning Algorithms for Energy Demand–Supply Prediction in Smart Grids," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-26, February.
    20. Di Leo, Senatro & Caramuta, Pietro & Curci, Paola & Cosmi, Carmelina, 2020. "Regression analysis for energy demand projection: An application to TIMES-Basilicata and TIMES-Italy energy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    21. Hou, Rui & Li, Shanshan & Wu, Minrong & Ren, Guowen & Gao, Wei & Khayatnezhad, Majid & gholinia, Fatemeh, 2021. "Assessing of impact climate parameters on the gap between hydropower supply and electricity demand by RCPs scenarios and optimized ANN by the improved Pathfinder (IPF) algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    22. Mohanad S. Al-Musaylh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Yan Li, 2020. "Electrical Energy Demand Forecasting Model Development and Evaluation with Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform-Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machines Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, May.
    23. Nahid Sultana & S. M. Zakir Hossain & Salma Hamad Almuhaini & Dilek Düştegör, 2022. "Bayesian Optimization Algorithm-Based Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches for Forecasting Short-Term Electricity Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Saglam & Catalina Spataru & Omer Ali Karaman, 2023. "Forecasting Electricity Demand in Turkey Using Optimization and Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-23, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mustafa Saglam & Catalina Spataru & Omer Ali Karaman, 2023. "Forecasting Electricity Demand in Turkey Using Optimization and Machine Learning Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Sen, Doruk & Tunç, K.M. Murat & Günay, M. Erdem, 2021. "Forecasting electricity consumption of OECD countries: A global machine learning modeling approach," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Ma, Minda, 2021. "A hybrid multi-objective optimizer-based model for daily electricity demand prediction considering COVID-19," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    4. Atif Maqbool Khan & Artur Wyrwa, 2024. "A Survey of Quantitative Techniques in Electricity Consumption—A Global Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-38, September.
    5. Mustafa Saglam & Xiaojing Lv & Catalina Spataru & Omer Ali Karaman, 2024. "Instantaneous Electricity Peak Load Forecasting Using Optimization and Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Hasnain Iftikhar & Josue E. Turpo-Chaparro & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2023. "Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-22, September.
    7. Li, Jinghua & Luo, Yichen & Wei, Shanyang, 2022. "Long-term electricity consumption forecasting method based on system dynamics under the carbon-neutral target," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    8. Rao, Congjun & Zhang, Yue & Wen, Jianghui & Xiao, Xinping & Goh, Mark, 2023. "Energy demand forecasting in China: A support vector regression-compositional data second exponential smoothing model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    9. Zizhen Cheng & Li Wang & Yumeng Yang, 2023. "A Hybrid Feature Pyramid CNN-LSTM Model with Seasonal Inflection Month Correction for Medium- and Long-Term Power Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Baratsas, Stefanos G. & Niziolek, Alexander M. & Onel, Onur & Matthews, Logan R. & Floudas, Christodoulos A. & Hallermann, Detlef R. & Sorescu, Sorin M. & Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N., 2022. "A novel quantitative forecasting framework in energy with applications in designing energy-intelligent tax policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    11. Karodine Chreng & Han Soo Lee & Soklin Tuy, 2022. "A Hybrid Model for Electricity Demand Forecast Using Improved Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Recurrent Neural Networks with ERA5 Climate Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Mohamed-Amine Babay & Mustapha Adar & Ahmed Chebak & Mustapha Mabrouki, 2023. "Dynamics of Gas Generation in Porous Electrode Alkaline Electrolysis Cells: An Investigation and Optimization Using Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Hu, Yusha & Li, Jigeng & Hong, Mengna & Ren, Jingzheng & Man, Yi, 2022. "Industrial artificial intelligence based energy management system: Integrated framework for electricity load forecasting and fault prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    14. Jun Hao & Xiaolei Sun & Qianqian Feng, 2020. "A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, January.
    15. Liu, Che & Li, Fan & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Guanguan, 2023. "A day-ahead prediction method for high-resolution electricity consumption in residential units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    16. Şahin, Utkucan & Ballı, Serkan & Chen, Yan, 2021. "Forecasting seasonal electricity generation in European countries under Covid-19-induced lockdown using fractional grey prediction models and machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    17. Zhou, Wenhao & Li, Hailin & Zhang, Zhiwei, 2022. "A novel seasonal fractional grey model for predicting electricity demand: A case study of Zhejiang in China," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 128-147.
    18. Du, Pei & Guo, Ju'e & Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang & Wu, Jing, 2022. "A novel two-stage seasonal grey model for residential electricity consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    19. Gulay, Emrah & Sen, Mustafa & Akgun, Omer Burak, 2024. "Forecasting electricity production from various energy sources in Türkiye: A predictive analysis of time series, deep learning, and hybrid models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    20. Manuel Jaramillo & Wilson Pavón & Lisbeth Jaramillo, 2024. "Adaptive Forecasting in Energy Consumption: A Bibliometric Analysis and Review," Data, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:16:p:5950-:d:890153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.