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Deep Learning Neural Networks Trained with MODIS Satellite-Derived Predictors for Long-Term Global Solar Radiation Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Sujan Ghimire

    (School of Agricultural Computational and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems & Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Springfield, QLD 4300, Australia)

  • Ravinesh C Deo

    (School of Agricultural Computational and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems & Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Springfield, QLD 4300, Australia)

  • Nawin Raj

    (School of Agricultural Computational and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems & Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Springfield, QLD 4300, Australia)

  • Jianchun Mi

    (School of Agricultural Computational and Environmental Sciences, Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems & Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Springfield, QLD 4300, Australia
    Department of Energy & Resources, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

Abstract

Solar energy predictive models designed to emulate the long-term (e.g., monthly) global solar radiation ( GSR ) trained with satellite-derived predictors can be employed as decision tenets in the exploration, installation and management of solar energy production systems in remote and inaccessible solar-powered sites. In spite of a plethora of models designed for GSR prediction, deep learning, representing a state-of-the-art intelligent tool, remains an attractive approach for renewable energy exploration, monitoring and forecasting. In this paper, algorithms based on deep belief networks and deep neural networks are designed to predict long-term GSR . Deep learning algorithms trained with publicly-accessible Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data are tested in Australia’s solar cities to predict the monthly GSR: single hidden layer and ensemble models. The monthly-scale MODIS-derived predictors (2003–2018) are adopted, with 15 diverse feature selection approaches including a Gaussian Emulation Machine for sensitivity analysis used to select optimal MODIS-predictor variables to simulate GSR against ground-truth values. Several statistical score metrics are adopted to comprehensively verify surface GSR simulations to ascertain the practicality of deep belief and deep neural networks. In the testing phase, deep learning models generate significantly lower absolute percentage bias (≤3%) and high Kling–Gupta efficiency (≥97.5%) values compared to the single hidden layer and ensemble model. This study ascertains that the optimal MODIS input variables employed in GSR prediction for solar energy applications can be relatively different for diverse sites, advocating a need for feature selection prior to the modelling of GSR . The proposed deep learning approach can be adopted to identify solar energy potential proactively in locations where it is impossible to install an environmental monitoring data acquisition instrument. Hence, MODIS and other related satellite-derived predictors can be incorporated for solar energy prediction as a strategy for long-term renewable energy exploration.

Suggested Citation

  • Sujan Ghimire & Ravinesh C Deo & Nawin Raj & Jianchun Mi, 2019. "Deep Learning Neural Networks Trained with MODIS Satellite-Derived Predictors for Long-Term Global Solar Radiation Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-39, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:12:p:2407-:d:242248
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    2. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Raj, Nawin & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Deep solar radiation forecasting with convolutional neural network and long short-term memory network algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2022. "Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise Deep Residual model for short-term multi-step solar radiation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 408-424.
    4. Mohamed A. Ali & Ashraf Elsayed & Islam Elkabani & Mohammad Akrami & M. Elsayed Youssef & Gasser E. Hassan, 2023. "Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks for the Accurate Prediction of Global Solar Radiation: A Performance Comparison with Conventional Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-30, August.
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    6. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira & Ramon Alcarria, 2023. "CyL-GHI: Global Horizontal Irradiance Dataset Containing 18 Years of Refined Data at 30-Min Granularity from 37 Stations Located in Castile and León (Spain)," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, March.
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    14. AL-Musaylh, Mohanad S. & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Adamowski, Jan F. & Li, Yan, 2019. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using machine learning methods enriched with ground-based climate and ECMWF Reanalysis atmospheric predictors in southeast Queensland, Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Chen, Jiang & Zhu, Weining & Yu, Qian, 2021. "Estimating half-hourly solar radiation over the Continental United States using GOES-16 data with iterative random forest," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 916-929.
    16. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2019. "Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Using Deep Learning in Solar Panels Installed in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    17. Lu, Yunbo & Wang, Lunche & Zhu, Canming & Zou, Ling & Zhang, Ming & Feng, Lan & Cao, Qian, 2023. "Predicting surface solar radiation using a hybrid radiative Transfer–Machine learning model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Anh Ngoc-Lan Huynh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Duc-Anh An-Vo & Mumtaz Ali & Nawin Raj & Shahab Abdulla, 2020. "Near Real-Time Global Solar Radiation Forecasting at Multiple Time-Step Horizons Using the Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    19. Zang, Haixiang & Liu, Ling & Sun, Li & Cheng, Lilin & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2020. "Short-term global horizontal irradiance forecasting based on a hybrid CNN-LSTM model with spatiotemporal correlations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 26-41.
    20. Fan, Junliang & Zheng, Jing & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang, 2021. "Estimation of daily maize transpiration using support vector machines, extreme gradient boosting, artificial and deep neural networks models," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    21. Ahmed Aljanad & Nadia M. L. Tan & Vassilios G. Agelidis & Hussain Shareef, 2021. "Neural Network Approach for Global Solar Irradiance Prediction at Extremely Short-Time-Intervals Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.

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