Estimating the Remaining Power Generation of Wind Turbines—An Exploratory Study for Main Bearing Failures

Condition monitoring for wind turbines is tailored to predict failure and aid in making better operation and maintenance (O&M) decisions. Typically the condition monitoring approaches are concerned with predicting the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of assets or a component. As the time-based measures can be rendered absolute when changing the operational set-point of a wind turbine, we propose an alternative in a power-based condition monitoring framework for wind turbines, i.e., the remaining power generation (RPG) before a main bearing failure. The proposed model utilizes historic wind turbine data, from both run-to-failure and non run-to-failure turbines. Comprised of a recurrent neural network with gated recurrent units, the model is constructed around a censored and uncensored data-based cost function. We infer a Weibull distribution over the RPG, which gives an operator a measure of how certain any given prediction is. As part of the model evaluation, we present the hyper-parameter selection, as well as modeling error in detail, including an analysis of the driving features. During the application on wind turbine main bearing failures, we achieve prediction in the magnitude of 1 to 2 GWh before the failure. When converting to RUL this corresponds to predicting the failure, on average, 81 days beforehand, which is comparable to the state-of-the-art’s 94 days predictive horizon in a similar feature space.