IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i8p1433-d222669.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Different Neural Networks and a New Architecture for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Lintao Yang

    (College of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

  • Honggeng Yang

    (College of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China)

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) has been widely studied because it plays a very important role in improving the economy and security of electric system operations. Many types of neural networks have been successfully used for STLF. In most of these methods, common neural networks were used, but without a systematic comparative analysis. In this paper, we first compare the most frequently used neural networks’ performance on the load dataset from the State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company (China). Then, considering the current neural networks’ disadvantages, we propose a new architecture called a gate-recurrent neural network (RNN) based on an RNN for STLF. By evaluating all the methods on our dataset, the results demonstrate that the performance of different neural network methods are related to the data time scale, and our proposed method is more accurate on a much shorter time scale, particularly when the time scale is smaller than 20 min.

Suggested Citation

  • Lintao Yang & Honggeng Yang, 2019. "Analysis of Different Neural Networks and a New Architecture for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:8:p:1433-:d:222669
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/8/1433/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/8/1433/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gang Li & Bao-Jian Li & Xu-Guang Yu & Chun-Tian Cheng, 2015. "Echo State Network with Bayesian Regularization for Forecasting Short-Term Power Production of Small Hydropower Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-14, October.
    2. Changbin Hu & Shanna Luo & Zhengxi Li & Xin Wang & Li Sun, 2015. "Energy Coordinative Optimization of Wind-Storage-Load Microgrids Based on Short-Term Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Chengshi Tian & Yan Hao, 2018. "A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, March.
    4. Gregory D. Merkel & Richard J. Povinelli & Ronald H. Brown, 2018. "Short-Term Load Forecasting of Natural Gas with Deep Neural Network Regression †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-12, August.
    5. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Chen, Yongbao & Xu, Peng & Chu, Yiyi & Li, Weilin & Wu, Yuntao & Ni, Lizhou & Bao, Yi & Wang, Kun, 2017. "Short-term electrical load forecasting using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to calculate the demand response baseline for office buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 659-670.
    7. Xing Zhang, 2018. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electric Bus Charging Stations Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Wolf Pack Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Shu Fan & Rob Hyndman, 2010. "Short-term load forecasting based on a semi-parametric additive model," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Goia, Aldo & May, Caterina & Fusai, Gianluca, 2010. "Functional clustering and linear regression for peak load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 700-711, October.
    10. J W Taylor, 2003. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 799-805, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian Shi & Fei Mei & Jixiang Lu & Jinjun Lu & Yi Pan & Cheng Zhou & Jianzhang Wu & Jianyong Zheng, 2019. "Phase Space Reconstruction Algorithm and Deep Learning-Based Very Short-Term Bus Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Jose R. Cedeño González & Juan J. Flores & Claudio R. Fuerte-Esquivel & Boris A. Moreno-Alcaide, 2020. "Nearest Neighbors Time Series Forecaster Based on Phase Space Reconstruction for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-24, October.
    3. Heung-gu Son & Yunsun Kim & Sahm Kim, 2020. "Time Series Clustering of Electricity Demand for Industrial Areas on Smart Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, May.
    4. Bibi Ibrahim & Luis Rabelo & Edgar Gutierrez-Franco & Nicolas Clavijo-Buritica, 2022. "Machine Learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-19, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Myoungsoo Kim & Wonik Choi & Youngjun Jeon & Ling Liu, 2019. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Power Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Chujie Tian & Jian Ma & Chunhong Zhang & Panpan Zhan, 2018. "A Deep Neural Network Model for Short-Term Load Forecast Based on Long Short-Term Memory Network and Convolutional Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Sergio Bruno & Gabriella Dellino & Massimo La Scala & Carlo Meloni, 2019. "A Microforecasting Module for Energy Management in Residential and Tertiary Buildings †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Feng, Yonghan & Ryan, Sarah M., 2016. "Day-ahead hourly electricity load modeling by functional regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 455-465.
    5. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Ding, Jia & Wang, Maolin & Ping, Zuowei & Fu, Dongfei & Vassiliadis, Vassilios S., 2020. "An integrated method based on relevance vector machine for short-term load forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 497-510.
    7. Happy Aprillia & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2020. "Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using a Convolutional Neural Network–Salp Swarm Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    8. Saxena, Harshit & Aponte, Omar & McConky, Katie T., 2019. "A hybrid machine learning model for forecasting a billing period’s peak electric load days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1288-1303.
    9. Eichler, M. & Grothe, O. & Manner, H. & Türk, D.D.T., 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    10. Wang, Chi-hsiang & Grozev, George & Seo, Seongwon, 2012. "Decomposition and statistical analysis for regional electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 313-325.
    11. Akylas Stratigakos & Athanasios Bachoumis & Vasiliki Vita & Elias Zafiropoulos, 2021. "Short-Term Net Load Forecasting with Singular Spectrum Analysis and LSTM Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-13, July.
    12. Xiao, Xun & Mo, Huadong & Zhang, Yinan & Shan, Guangcun, 2022. "Meta-ANN – A dynamic artificial neural network refined by meta-learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    13. Seon Hyeog Kim & Gyul Lee & Gu-Young Kwon & Do-In Kim & Yong-June Shin, 2018. "Deep Learning Based on Multi-Decomposition for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Peng Liu & Peijun Zheng & Ziyu Chen, 2019. "Deep Learning with Stacked Denoising Auto-Encoder for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, June.
    15. Mohamed Chaouch & Naâmane Laïb & Djamal Louani, 2017. "Rate of uniform consistency for a class of mode regression on functional stationary ergodic data," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 26(1), pages 19-47, March.
    16. Smyl, Slawek, 2020. "A hybrid method of exponential smoothing and recurrent neural networks for time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 75-85.
    17. Andrea Menapace & Simone Santopietro & Rudy Gargano & Maurizio Righetti, 2021. "Stochastic Generation of District Heat Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    18. Chen, Yongbao & Chen, Zhe & Xu, Peng & Li, Weilin & Sha, Huajing & Yang, Zhiwei & Li, Guowen & Hu, Chonghe, 2019. "Quantification of electricity flexibility in demand response: Office building case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    19. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    20. Hu, Junjie & López Cabrera, Brenda & Melzer, Awdesch, 2021. "Advanced statistical learning on short term load process forecasting," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-020, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:8:p:1433-:d:222669. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.