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Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electric Bus Charging Stations Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Wolf Pack Algorithm

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  • Xing Zhang

    (Department of Economic Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China, 51851719@ncepu.edu.cn)

Abstract

Accurate short-term load forecasting is of momentous significance to ensure safe and economic operation of quick-change electric bus (e-bus) charging stations. In order to improve the accuracy and stability of load prediction, this paper proposes a hybrid model that combines fuzzy clustering (FC), least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), and wolf pack algorithm (WPA). On the basis of load characteristics analysis for e-bus charging stations, FC is adopted to extract samples on similar days, which can not only avoid the blindness of selecting similar days by experience, but can also overcome the adverse effects of unconventional load data caused by a sudden change of factors on training. Then, WPA with good global convergence and computational robustness is employed to optimize the parameters of LSSVM. Thus, a novel hybrid load forecasting model for quick-change e-bus charging stations is built, namely FC-WPA-LSSVM. To verify the developed model, two case studies are used for model construction and testing. The simulation test results prove that the proposed model can obtain high prediction accuracy and ideal stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing Zhang, 2018. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electric Bus Charging Stations Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Wolf Pack Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:6:p:1449-:d:150592
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    Cited by:

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    3. Jian Chen & Fangyi Li & Ranran Yang & Dawei Ma, 2020. "Impacts of Increasing Private Charging Piles on Electric Vehicles’ Charging Profiles: A Case Study in Hefei City, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, August.
    4. Lihui Zhang & Riletu Ge & Jianxue Chai, 2019. "Prediction of China’s Energy Consumption Based on Robust Principal Component Analysis and PSO-LSSVM Optimized by the Tabu Search Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Gilanifar, Mostafa & Parvania, Masood, 2021. "Clustered multi-node learning of electric vehicle charging flexibility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
    6. Sanchari Deb & Xiao-Zhi Gao, 2022. "Prediction of Charging Demand of Electric City Buses of Helsinki, Finland by Random Forest," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Lintao Yang & Honggeng Yang, 2019. "Analysis of Different Neural Networks and a New Architecture for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-23, April.
    8. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    9. Sanchari Deb, 2021. "Machine Learning for Solving Charging Infrastructure Planning Problems: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    10. Jean-Michel Clairand & Javier Rodríguez-García & Carlos Álvarez-Bel, 2018. "Electric Vehicle Charging Strategy for Isolated Systems with High Penetration of Renewable Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    11. Shuxia Yang & Xianguo Zhu & Shengjiang Peng, 2020. "Prospect Prediction of Terminal Clean Power Consumption in China via LSSVM Algorithm Based on Improved Evolutionary Game Theory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, April.
    12. Kayhan Alamatsaz & Sadam Hussain & Chunyan Lai & Ursula Eicker, 2022. "Electric Bus Scheduling and Timetabling, Fast Charging Infrastructure Planning, and Their Impact on the Grid: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-39, October.

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