How good are US government forecasts of the federal debt?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.014
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Andrew Martinez, 2014. "How Good Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," Economics Series Working Papers 727, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
References listed on IDEAS
- Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 2003. "Forecasting exogenous fiscal variables in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Plesko, George A., 1988. "The Accuracy of Government Forecasts and Budget Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 41(4), pages 483-501, December.
- Jeffrey Frankel, 2011.
"Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," NBER Working Papers 17239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and its Implications," Scholarly Articles 8705906, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Congressional Budget Office, 2010. "CBO's Economic Forecasting Record: 2010 Update," Reports 21520, Congressional Budget Office.
- Ericsson, Neil R & Marquez, Jaime, 1993. "Encompassing the Forecasts of U.S. Trade Balance Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 19-31, February.
- Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986.
"Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: an exposition, extensions, and illustration," International Finance Discussion Papers 412, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Congressional Budget Office, 2013. "CBO's Economic Forecasting Record: 2013 Update," Reports 43846, Congressional Budget Office.
- Michael T. Belongia, 1988. "Are economic forecasts by government agencies biased? Accurate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 15-23.
- David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Pooling of forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, June.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Robert H. Rasche, 1985. "Deficit projections vs. deficit forecasts," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul5.
- Mark S. Kamlet & David C. Mowery & Tsai-Tsu Su, 1987. "Whom do you trust? An analysis of executive and congressional economic forecasts," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 365-384.
- Plesko, George A., 1988. "The Accuracy of Government Forecasts and Budget Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 41(4), pages 483-501, December.
- Kevin L. Kliesen & Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How good are the government’s deficit and debt projections and should we care?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 21-39. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:- Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2017.
"Evaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 359-372.
- David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 189-201.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 2017.
"How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 543-559.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," Working Papers 2017-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Bachleitner, Alena & Prammer, Doris, 2024. "Don’t blame the government!? An assessment of debt forecast errors with a view to the EU Economic Governance Review," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
- Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2022. "The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-122, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
- Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2019. "Assessing the accuracy of electricity production forecasts in developing countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1175-1185.
- Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Andrew B. Martinez, 2011. "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers 2011-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 2017.
"How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 543-559.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," Working Papers 2017-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2018.
"Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 933-945, December.
- Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-17, CIRANO.
- Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020.
"On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information,"
Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
- Zidong An & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the Performance of US Fiscal Forecasts: Government vs. Private Information," Working Papers REM 2020/0130, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2008.
"The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 895-914, December.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The fragility of sensitivity analysis: an encompassing perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 959, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- West, Kenneth D., 2001.
"Encompassing tests when no model is encompassing,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 287-308, November.
- West,K.D., 1999. "Encompassing tests when no model is encompassing," Working papers 36, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West, 2000. "Encompassing Tests When No Model Is Encompassing," NBER Technical Working Papers 0256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013.
"Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
- Javier J. Perez & Rossana Merola, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," EcoMod2012 4694, EcoMod.
- Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
- Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2014. "Fiscal Forecast Errors: Governments Versus Independent Agencies?," Papers RB2014/1/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Ericsson, Neil R., 2016.
"Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2015-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017.
"Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States,"
FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
- Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," CESifo Working Paper Series 6310, CESifo.
- Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997.
"An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process,"
Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
- Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-08, CIRANO.
- Campbell, B. & Ghysels, E., 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Cahiers de recherche 9523, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Campbell, B. & Ghysels, E., 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Cahiers de recherche 9523, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021.
"Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time,"
Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-20, October.
- Chad Fulton & Kirstin Hubrich, 2021. "Forecasting US Inflation in Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2014. "Fiscal policy: ex ante and ex post," Working Papers 14-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
- McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- George A. Krause, 2006. "Beyond the Norm," Rationality and Society, , vol. 18(2), pages 157-191, May.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2000. "Predictable uncertainty in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004.
"Pooling of forecasts,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, June.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2001. "Forecast uncertainty in economic modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003.
"Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
More about this item
Keywords
Evaluating Forecasts; Government Forecasting; Macroeconomic Forecasts; Forecast Encompassing; Deficit;
All these keywords.JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:312-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.