How good are US government forecasts of the federal debt?
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.014
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- Andrew Martinez, 2014. "How Good Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," Economics Series Working Papers 727, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
References listed on IDEAS
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Citations
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Cited by:- Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2017.
"Evaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 359-372.
- David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016. "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers 784, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Andrew Martinez, 2017. "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series) 1717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Directional analysis of fiscal sustainability: Revisiting Domar's debt sustainability condition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 189-201.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 2017.
"How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 543-559.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," Working Papers 2017-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Bachleitner, Alena & Prammer, Doris, 2024. "Don’t blame the government!? An assessment of debt forecast errors with a view to the EU Economic Governance Review," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
- Andrew B. Martinez, 2020. "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers 2020-008, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2022. "The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-122, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
- Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2019. "Assessing the accuracy of electricity production forecasts in developing countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1175-1185.
- Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.
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More about this item
Keywords
Evaluating Forecasts; Government Forecasting; Macroeconomic Forecasts; Forecast Encompassing; Deficit;
All these keywords.JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
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- Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.