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Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators for Selected European Union Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Aldona Migala-Warchol
  • Agata Surowka

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of the article is to forecast the level of economic indicators using data collected from the Databases of the Eurostat. Design/methodology/approach: The data were collected for the period from 2010 to 2022 year for selected European Union countries, Poland, Greece and Germany. Variables used in the publication are, GDP, export of goods and services and final consumption expenditure of households. In the second part of the article the method of forecast was used - ratio analysis for additive model for the indicators used GDP, export of goods and services and final consumption expenditure of households. Findings: The results showed that Poland and Greece still need to be involved in improving the macroeconomic situation of both countries, as there is still a significant difference between the results of the macroeconomic indicators forecast for these two countries compared to Germany. Practical implications: Poland and Greece must continue to improve the competitiveness of their economies. The current situation shows that there is a two-speed Union. On the basis of the results obtained, it can be seen that Germany differs significantly from Poland and Greece. Originality value: The study contributes to the discussion on the spatial differentiation of the level of development in the European Union. The results of the research and recommendations may be useful for Poland and Greece in the search for ways to more fully use the potentials of these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Aldona Migala-Warchol & Agata Surowka, 2022. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators for Selected European Union Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 420-431.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxv:y:2022:i:2:p:420-431
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
    2. Urasawa, Satoshi, 2014. "Real-time GDP forecasting for Japan: A dynamic factor model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 116-134.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic indicators; GDP; final consumption expenditures; export of goods and services; European Union.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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