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Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales With Automated Procedures

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  • Rómulo Chumacero E.

Abstract

This paper presents a rigorous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Rómulo Chumacero E., 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales With Automated Procedures," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(3), pages 47-56, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:7:y:2004:i:3:p:47-56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2003. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7315.
    2. Roque Montero, 2012. "Does Linearity in the Dynamics of Inflation Gap and Unemployment Rate Matter?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 27(1), pages 3-26, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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