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Autonomous demand and the investment share

Author

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  • Daniele Girardi

    (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA)

  • Riccardo Pariboni

    (DEPS, Università degli Studi di Siena, Italy)

Abstract

This paper looks at the effect of demand shocks on the investment share of the economy. Using panel data on 20 OECD countries, we show that the rate of growth of autonomous demand (exports, public spending, and housing investment) is positively correlated with subsequent values of the share of business investment in GDP. By means of an instrumental-variables (IV) strategy, we confirm a positive effect of demand dynamics on the business investment share. We instrument autonomous demand with (i) US demand for imports interacted with exposure to trade with the US, (ii) openness to trade of a country's main export destinations, and (iii) military spending. A permanent 1-percentage-point increase in autonomous-demand growth raises the investment share by 1.5 to 1.9 percentage points of GDP in our preferred panel IV specification. Our results provide empirical support for the view that the influence of aggregate demand on capital accumulation can be a major source of hysteresis. Our results are inconsistent with the canonical New Keynesian three-equations model, the Neo-Kaleckian model with flexible equilibrium utilization, and Classical–Marxian growth models. A positive influence of autonomous demand on the investment share is instead compatible with demand-led models in which capacity adjusts to demand in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2020. "Autonomous demand and the investment share," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 428-453, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:8:y:2020:i:3:p407-453
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    4. Allain, Olivier, 2022. "A supermultiplier model with two non-capacity-generating semi-autonomous demand components," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 91-103.
    5. José A. Pérez‐Montiel & Carles Manera, 2022. "Is autonomous demand really autonomous in the United States? An asymmetric frequency‐domain Granger causality approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 78-92, February.
    6. Matteo Deleidi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2020. "Tertiarization, productivity and aggregate demand: evidence-based policies for European countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1429-1465, November.
    7. Matteo Deleidi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2018. "Structural change, labour productivity and the Kaldor-Verdoorn law: evidence from European countries," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0239, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    8. Andrea Borsato, 2021. "Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match with data? Evidence from USA," Working Papers of BETA 2021-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    9. Summa, Ricardo de Figueiredo, 2022. "Alternative uses of functional finance: Lerner, MMT and the Sraffiansh," IPE Working Papers 175/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    10. Gonzalez, Alejandro, 2024. "Bargaining power, demand growth and the decline of the labor share," OSF Preprints 78kad, Center for Open Science.
    11. Stephen Thompson, 2022. "“The total movement of this disorder is its order”: Investment and utilization dynamics in long‐run disequilibrium," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 638-682, May.
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    14. Guilherme Haluska & Julia Braga & Ricardo Summa, 2021. "Growth, investment share and the stability of the Sraffian Supermultiplier model in the U.S. economy (1985–2017)," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 345-364, May.
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    17. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hysteresis; investment; demand-led growth; capacity adjustment; supermultiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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