IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/new/wpaper/2203.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When is the Long Run? – Historical Time and Adjustment Periods in Demand-led Growth Models

Author

Listed:
  • Ettore Gallo

    (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)

Abstract

In recent years, Post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution have substantially shifted their focus from short to long-run analysis. While many authors have focused on the convergence of demand-led growth models to a fully-adjusted equilibrium, relatively little attention has been given to the time required to reach this long-run position. In order to fill the gap, this paper seeks to answer the question of when is the long run in demand-led growth models. By making use of numerical integration, it analyses the time of adjustment from one steady-state to the other in two well-known demand-led growth models: the Sraffian Supermultiplier and the fully-adjusted version of the neo-Kaleckian model. The results show that the adjustment period is generally beyond an economically meaningful time span, suggesting that researchers and policy makers ought to pay more attention to the models’ predictions during the traverse rather than focusing on steady-state positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ettore Gallo, 2022. "When is the Long Run? – Historical Time and Adjustment Periods in Demand-led Growth Models," Working Papers 2203, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/econ/2022/NSSR_WP_032022.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franklin Serrano & Fabio Freitas, 2017. "The Sraffian supermultiplier as an alternative closure for heterodox growth theory," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 70-91, April.
    2. Peter Skott, 2019. "Autonomous demand, Harrodian instability and the supply side," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 233-246, May.
    3. Xavier Gabaix & Jean‐Michel Lasry & Pierre‐Louis Lions & Benjamin Moll, 2016. "The Dynamics of Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 2071-2111, November.
    4. Olivier Allain, 2015. "Tackling the instability of growth: a Kaleckian-Harrodian model with an autonomous expenditure component," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(5), pages 1351-1371.
    5. Franklin Serrano & Fabio Freitas & Gustavo Bhering, 2019. "The Trouble with Harrod: The fundamental instability of the warranted rate in the light of the Sraffian Supermultiplier," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 263-287, May.
    6. Marc Lavoie, 2016. "Convergence Towards the Normal Rate of Capacity Utilization in Neo-Kaleckian Models: The Role of Non-Capacity Creating Autonomous Expenditures," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 172-201, February.
    7. Guilherme Haluska & Julia Braga & Ricardo Summa, 2021. "Growth, investment share and the stability of the Sraffian Supermultiplier model in the U.S. economy (1985–2017)," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 345-364, May.
    8. repec:bla:kyklos:v:33:y:1980:i:2:p:219-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ettore Gallo & Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes, 2023. "Investment, autonomous demand and long-run capacity utilization: an empirical test for the Euro Area," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 225-255, April.
    10. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    11. A. B. Atkinson, 1971. "The Timescale of Economic Model How Long is the Long Run?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 19, pages 248-263, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Ryuzo Sato, 1963. "Fiscal Policy in a Neo-Classical Growth Model: An Analysis of Time Required for Equilibrating Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 30(1), pages 16-23.
    13. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2020. "Autonomous demand and the investment share: Online appendices," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, July.
    14. Fabio Freitas & Franklin Serrano, 2015. "Growth Rate and Level Effects, the Stability of the Adjustment of Capacity to Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 258-281, July.
    15. Guilherme Spinato Morlin & Nikolas Passos & Riccardo Pariboni, 2021. "Growth theory and the growth model perspective: Insights from the supermultiplier," Department of Economics University of Siena 869, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    16. Lavoie, Marc & Ramirez-Gaston, Pablo, 1997. "Traverse in a Two-Sector Kaleckian Model of Growth with Target-Return Pricing," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(2), pages 145-169, March.
    17. Mark Setterfield & Andrew Budd, 2011. "A Keynes-Kalecki Model of Cyclical Growth with Agent-Based Features," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Philip Arestis (ed.), Microeconomics, Macroeconomics and Economic Policy, chapter 13, pages 228-250, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Steven M Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2020. "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 583-605.
    19. Barry Z. Cynamon & Steven M. Fazzari, 2017. "Household Income, Demand, and Saving: Deriving Macro Data With Micro Data Concepts," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(1), pages 53-69, March.
    20. Joan Robinson, 1980. "Time In Economic Theory," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 219-229, May.
    21. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2016. "Long-run Effective Demand in the US Economy: An Empirical Test of the Sraffian Supermultiplier Model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 523-544, October.
    22. Sato, Ryuzo, 1980. "Adjustment time and economic growth revisited," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 239-246.
    23. Philip Arestis (ed.), 2011. "Microeconomics, Macroeconomics and Economic Policy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-31375-0, December.
    24. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2020. "Autonomous demand and the investment share," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 428-453, July.
    25. Ettore Gallo, 2023. "How Short Is the Short Run in the Neo-Kaleckian Growth Model?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 687-701, July.
    26. Setterfield, Mark, 1997. "'History versus Equilibrium' and the Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 21(3), pages 365-378, May.
    27. Peter Skott, 2017. "Autonomous Demand and the Harrodian Criticisms of the Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 185-193, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ana Bottega & Rafael S. M. Ribeiro, 2023. "Kalecki meets Schumpeter: The decline of competition in a demand‐led dynamic model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 584-605, July.
    2. Ettore Gallo & Mark Setterfield, 2022. "Historical Time and the Current State of Post-Keynesian Growth Theory," Working Papers 2204, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    3. Mark Setterfield, 2024. "The Kalecki-Robinson Tradition in Post-Keynesian Growth Theory," Working Papers 2402, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    4. Ettore Gallo & Maria Cristina Barbieri Goes, 2023. "Teaching heterodox macroeconomics: Some reflections from Macroeconomics after Kalecki and Keynes by Eckhard Hein," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(305), pages 203-207.
    5. Graham White, 2023. "Autonomous demand, expectations and calibration: simulating demand led growth," Working Papers 2023-08, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina & Deleidi, Matteo, 2022. "Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Stephen Thompson, 2022. "“The total movement of this disorder is its order”: Investment and utilization dynamics in long‐run disequilibrium," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 638-682, May.
    3. Guilherme Haluska & Julia Braga & Ricardo Summa, 2021. "Growth, investment share and the stability of the Sraffian Supermultiplier model in the U.S. economy (1985–2017)," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 345-364, May.
    4. José A. Pérez‐Montiel & Carles Manera, 2022. "Is autonomous demand really autonomous in the United States? An asymmetric frequency‐domain Granger causality approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 78-92, February.
    5. Allain, Olivier, 2022. "A supermultiplier model with two non-capacity-generating semi-autonomous demand components," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 91-103.
    6. Gahn, Santiago José, 2021. "On the adjustment of capacity utilisation to aggregate demand: Revisiting an old Sraffian critique to the Neo-Kaleckian model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 325-360.
    7. Eckhard Hein & Ryan Woodgate, 2021. "Stability issues in Kaleckian models driven by autonomous demand growth—Harrodian instability and debt dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 388-404, May.
    8. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    9. Eckhard Hein & Valeria Jimenez, 2022. "The macroeconomic implications of zero growth: a post-Keynesian approach," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 41-60, April.
    10. Olivier Allain, 2021. "A supermultiplier model of the natural rate of growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 612-634, July.
    11. Peter Skott & Júlio Fernando Costa Santos & José Luís da Costa Oreiro, 2022. "Supermultipliers, ‘endogenous autonomous demand’ and functional finance," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 220-244, February.
    12. Ettore Gallo & Mark Setterfield, 2022. "Historical Time and the Current State of Post-Keynesian Growth Theory," Working Papers 2204, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    13. Ettore Gallo & Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes, 2023. "Investment, autonomous demand and long-run capacity utilization: an empirical test for the Euro Area," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 225-255, April.
    14. Michalis Nikiforos & Marcio Santetti & Rudiger von Arnim, 2021. "The Sraffian Supermultiplier and Cycles: Theory and Empirics," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_993, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. Pedrosa, Ítalo & Brochier, Lídia & Freitas, Fabio, 2023. "Debt hierarchy: Autonomous demand composition, growth and indebtedness in a Supermultiplier model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Steven M Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2020. "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 583-605.
    17. Guilherme Spinato Morlin & Nikolas Passos & Riccardo Pariboni, 2021. "Growth theory and the growth model perspective: Insights from the supermultiplier," Department of Economics University of Siena 869, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    18. Pariboni, Riccardo & Girardi, Daniele, 2018. "A(nother) Note on the Inconsistency of Neo-Kaleckian Growth Models," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP31, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    19. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2020. "Autonomous demand and the investment share," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 428-453, July.
    20. Nomaler, Önder & Spinola, Danilo & Verspagen, Bart, 2021. "R&D-based economic growth in a supermultiplier model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-19.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Neo-Kaleckian model; Sraffian Supermultiplier; time; adjustment period; traverse; effective demand; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Setterfield (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/denewus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.