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Investment, autonomous demand and long run capacity utilization: An empirical test for the Euro Area

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  • Gallo, Ettore

Abstract

In recent years, the role attached to the autonomous components of aggregate demand has attracted rising attention, as testified by the development of the Sraffian Supermulti plier model (SSM) and the attempts to include autonomous demand in the Neo-Kaleckian model. This paper reviews and empirically tests the validity and the policy conclusions of the two models in the Euro Area. First, we theoretically assess whether the SSM may con stitute a complex variant of the Neo-Kaleckian model. In this sense, it is shown that results compatible with the SSM can be obtained by implementing a set of mechanisms in a modified Neo-Kaleckian model, leading to the convergence towards a desired rate of utilization. Furthermore, the chief diffierence between the models is recognized to be the role attached to the rate of capacity utilization in the long run. Second, the paper empirically tests the main implications of the models in the Euro Area, based on Eurostat data. In particular, the discussion outlines the short and long-run relation between autonomous demand and output, by testing both the cointegration and the direction of causality between the two with a VECM model. Moreover, the role accounted by both theories to the actual rate of capacity utilization and its discrepancies from the normal rate is empirically assessed, through a time-series estimation of the Sraffian and Neo-Kaleckian investment functions. While confirming the theoretical relation between autonomous demand and output in the long run, the results show that the dynamics of the rate of capacity utilization still plays a key role in the short-run adjustment mechanism - despite its stationary behaviour in the long term. Therefore, admitting that Keynesian results may hold even after the traverse, our work suggests to be Kaleckian in the short run and Sraffian in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallo, Ettore, 2019. "Investment, autonomous demand and long run capacity utilization: An empirical test for the Euro Area," IPE Working Papers 116/2019, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ipewps:1162019
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    Cited by:

    1. Ettore Gallo, 2022. "When is the long run?—Historical time and adjustment periods in demand‐led growth models," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1155-1178, November.
    2. Gahn, Santiago José, 2021. "On the adjustment of capacity utilisation to aggregate demand: Revisiting an old Sraffian critique to the Neo-Kaleckian model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 325-360.
    3. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina & Deleidi, Matteo, 2022. "Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    distribution; effective demand; Eurozone; growth; Neo-Kaleckian; Sraffian; Supermultiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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