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Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy

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  • Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina
  • Deleidi, Matteo

Abstract

This paper aims to assess whether shocks in demand and its components can affect short- and long-run output dynamics, challenging the macroeconomic literature that relegates its effects to the short run. We apply SVAR modelling to US quarterly data (1954–2020) in order to identify shocks and compute multipliers associated with demand and its autonomous components (i.e. exports, government expenditure, credit-financed consumption, and private residential investment) while controlling for monetary policy. Our findings suggest that: (i) demand produces long-lasting effects on GDP with multipliers greater than one; (ii) multipliers are higher for credit-financed consumption and private residential investment, followed by government expenditure and exports; (iii) monetary policy affects output through residential investment. Our results support those theories suggesting that supply accommodates to demand by varying installed capacity and that monetary policy is ineffective in stimulating economic activity due to the low responsiveness of GDP to interest rate shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina & Deleidi, Matteo, 2022. "Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002449
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106004
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    2. Maria Cristina Barbieri Goes & Joana David Avritzer, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Distribution and Autonomous Demand in the US," Working Papers 2307, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    3. Matteo Deleidi & Claudia Fontanari & Santiago José Gahn, 2023. "Autonomous demand and technical change: exploring the Kaldor–Verdoorn law on a global level," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 57-80, April.
    4. Andrea Boitani & Lorenzo Di Domenico & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2024. "Monetary policy and inequality: an heterogenous agents’ approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def133, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    5. Lorenzo Domenico & Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes & Ettore Gallo, 2024. "Distribution, capital intensity and public debt-to-GDP ratio: an input output—stock flow consistent model," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 395-416, July.
    6. Jose A. Pérez-Montiel & Andreu Sansó & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2023. "Autonomous and induced demand in the United States: a long-run perspective," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 1237-1257, September.

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    Keywords

    Supermultiplier; Autonomous demand; SVAR; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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