IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v123y2019ic20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Achieving sustainable development in India along low carbon pathways: Macroeconomic assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Gupta, Dipti
  • Ghersi, Frédéric
  • Vishwanathan, Saritha S.
  • Garg, Amit

Abstract

Achieving fast and inclusive economic growth concurrently with greenhouse gases (GHG) emission control could have wide-ranging implications for the Indian economy, predominantly fuelled by fossil energies. India faces high income inequality with the bottom 50% of its population owning only 2% of total national wealth. Other developmental challenges include 304 million people living in poverty, 269 million without access to electricity, 92 million without access to safe drinking water, and around 2 million homeless. Despite such challenges, India has committed to reduce the GHG emission intensity of its GDP 33–35% below its 2005 level by 2030, including via turning 40% of its power-generation capacity away from fossil sources. To explore the macroeconomic consequences of achieving development along low-carbon pathways, we use a hybrid modelling architecture that combines the strengths of the AIM/Enduse bottom-up model of Indian energy systems and the IMACLIM top-down economy-wide model of India. This hybrid architecture stands upon an original dataset that reconciles national accounting, energy balance and energy price statistics. With this tool, we demonstrate that low-carbon scenarios can accommodate yearly economic growth of 5.8% from 2013 to 2050 i.e. perform close to if not slightly higher than our business-as-usual scenario, despite high investment costs. This result partly stems from improvement of the Indian trade balance via substantial reduction of large fossil fuel imports. Additionally, it is the consequence of significant shifts of sectoral activity and household consumption towards low-carbon products and services of higher value-added. These transitions would require policies to reconcile the conflicting interests of entrenched businesses in retreating sectors like coal and oil, and the emerging low-carbon sectors and technologies such as renewables, smart grids, electric vehicles, modern biomass energy, solar cooking, carbon capture and storage, etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Gupta, Dipti & Ghersi, Frédéric & Vishwanathan, Saritha S. & Garg, Amit, 2019. "Achieving sustainable development in India along low carbon pathways: Macroeconomic assessment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:123:y:2019:i:c:20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104623
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19302694
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104623?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," IZA Discussion Papers 1665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Shukla, Priyadarshi R. & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav, 2012. "Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 487-495.
    3. Mittal, Shivika & Dai, Hancheng & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Bridging greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy deployment target: Comparative assessment of China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 301-313.
    4. van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper & Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & Deetman, Sebastiaan & den Elzen, Michel G.J., 2012. "Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 459-469.
    5. Parikh, Kirit, 2012. "Sustainable development and low carbon growth strategy for India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 31-38.
    6. Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
    7. Weitzel, Matthias & Ghosh, Joydeep & Peterson, Sonja & Pradhan, Basanta K., 2015. "Effects of international climate policy for India: evidence from a national and global CGE model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 516-538, August.
    8. Frédéric Ghersi, 2015. "Hybrid Bottom-up/Top-down Energy and Economy Outlooks: A Review of IMACLIM-S Experiments," Post-Print hal-01682272, HAL.
    9. Frederic Ghersi and Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2006. "Macroeconomic Consistency issues in E3 Modeling: The Continued Fable of the Elephant and the Rabbit," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 39-62.
    10. Kriegler, Elmar & Petermann, Nils & Krey, Volker & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Luderer, Gunnar & Ashina, Shuichi & Bosetti, Valentina & Eom, Jiyong & Kitous, Alban & Méjean, Aurélie & Paroussos, Leonida, 2015. "Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 45-61.
    11. Shivika Mittal & Jing-Yu Liu & Shinichiro Fujimori & Priyadarshi Ramprasad Shukla, 2018. "An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, August.
    12. Jean-Charles Hourcade, Mark Jaccard, Chris Bataille, and Frederic Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-12.
    13. Vaibhav Chaturvedi & Priyadarshi Shukla, 2014. "Role of energy efficiency in climate change mitigation policy for India: assessment of co-benefits and opportunities within an integrated assessment modeling framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 597-609, April.
    14. P. R. Shukla & Subash Dhar & Diptiranjan Mahapatra, 2008. "Low-carbon society scenarios for India," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 156-176, December.
    15. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Kouvaritakis, Nikos, 2018. "Model-based analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and 2 °C pathways for major economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 965-978.
    16. Kumar, Subhash & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "CO2 emission reduction potential assessment using renewable energy in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 273-282.
    17. Lucas, Paul L. & Shukla, P.R. & Chen, Wenying & van Ruijven, Bas J. & Dhar, Subash & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2013. "Implications of the international reduction pledges on long-term energy system changes and costs in China and India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1032-1041.
    18. Daniel Johansson & Paul Lucas & Matthias Weitzel & Erik Ahlgren & A. Bazaz & Wenying Chen & Michel Elzen & Joydeep Ghosh & Maria Grahn & Qiao-Mei Liang & Sonja Peterson & Basanta Pradhan & Bas Ruijven, 2015. "Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1335-1359, December.
    19. F. Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2006. "Macroeconomic consistency issues in E3 modeling: The continued fable of the elephant and the rabbit," Post-Print hal-00716324, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xu & Wang, Pengmian & Xu, Qiuxiang, 2024. "Corporate environmental governance under the coordination of fiscal and financial policies: The case of green credit subsidy policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Guo, Jianxin & Tan, Xianchun & Zhu, Kaiwei & Cheng, Yonglong, 2024. "Integrated management of abatement technology investment and resource extraction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," CIRED Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    4. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    5. Shirov, A., 2022. "Low-carbon development of Russia under the foreign economic restrictions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 206-212.
    6. Magazzino, Cosimo & Mele, Marco & Schneider, Nicolas, 2021. "A machine learning approach on the relationship among solar and wind energy production, coal consumption, GDP, and CO2 emissions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 99-115.
    7. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    8. Xin Su & Frédéric Ghersi & Fei Teng & Gaëlle Treut & Meicong Liang, 2022. "The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-37, January.
    9. Gupta, Dipti & Dhar, Subash, 2022. "Exploring the freight transportation transitions for mitigation and development pathways of India," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 156-175.
    10. Enaganti, Prasanth K. & Bhattacharjee, Ankur & Ghosh, Aritra & Chanchangi, Yusuf N. & Chakraborty, Chanchal & Mallick, Tapas K. & Goel, Sanket, 2022. "Experimental investigations for dust build-up on low-iron glass exterior and its effects on the performance of solar PV systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    11. Zhang, Fuyu & Wang, Qiang & Li, Rongrong, 2024. "Linking natural resource abundance and green growth: The role of energy transition," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Efrain Boom-Cárcamo & Rita Peñabaena-Niebles, 2022. "Analysis of the Development of Industrial Symbiosis in Emerging and Frontier Market Countries: Barriers and Drivers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-32, April.
    13. Škare, Marinko & Gavurova, Beata & Porada-Rochon, Malgorzata, 2024. "Digitalization and carbon footprint: Building a path to a sustainable economic growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    14. Aritra Ghosh, 2020. "Soiling Losses: A Barrier for India’s Energy Security Dependency from Photovoltaic Power," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, May.
    15. Stock, Ryan, 2021. "Bright as night: Illuminating the antinomies of ‘gender positive’ solar development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Ritu Mathur & Swapnil Shekhar, 2020. "India’s energy sector choices—options and implications of ambitious mitigation efforts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1893-1911, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    2. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Research on the peak of CO2 emissions in the developing world: Current progress and future prospect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 186-203.
    3. Daniel Johansson & Paul Lucas & Matthias Weitzel & Erik Ahlgren & A. Bazaz & Wenying Chen & Michel Elzen & Joydeep Ghosh & Maria Grahn & Qiao-Mei Liang & Sonja Peterson & Basanta Pradhan & Bas Ruijven, 2015. "Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1335-1359, December.
    4. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," CIRED Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    5. Shivika Mittal & Jing-Yu Liu & Shinichiro Fujimori & Priyadarshi Ramprasad Shukla, 2018. "An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, August.
    6. Pablo Pintos & Pedro Linares, 2016. "Assessing the EU ETS with an Integrated Model," Working Papers 01-2016, Economics for Energy.
    7. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    8. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Camille Thubin, 2010. "La fiscalité carbone au risque des enjeux d'équité," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 59-91.
    9. Chris Bataille & Henri Waisman & Michel Colombier & Laura Segafredo & Jim Williams & Frank Jotzo, 2016. "The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(sup1), pages 7-26, June.
    10. Soummane, Salaheddine & Ghersi, Frédéric & Lefèvre, Julien, 2019. "Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 263-282.
    11. Xavier Labandeira, Pedro Linares and Miguel Rodriguez, 2009. "An Integrated Approach to Simulate the impacts of Carbon Emissions Trading Schemes," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    12. Ruben Bibas & Aurélie Méjean, 2014. "Potential and limitations of bioenergy for low carbon transitions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 731-761, April.
    13. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade & Daniel Théry, 2010. "Carbon Tax and Equity : The Importance of Policy Design," Post-Print halshs-00692516, HAL.
    14. Julien Lefevre, 2016. "A description of the IMACLIM-BR model: a modeling framework to assess climate and energy policy in Brazil [Une description du modèle IMACLIM-BR: un outil de modélisation pour évaluer les politiques," Working Papers hal-01685947, HAL.
    15. Pierre Besson & Nina Kousnetzoff, 2009. "Les impacts économiques du changement climatique : enjeux de modélisation," Working Papers 2009-36, CEPII research center.
    16. Després, Jacques & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick & Noirot, Isabelle, 2015. "Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 486-495.
    17. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    18. Lecocq, Franck & Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "How might climate change affect economic growth in developing countries ? a review of the growth literature with a climate lens," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4315, The World Bank.
    19. Bashir, Muhammad Farhan & Ma, Beiling & Sharif, Arshian & Ao, Tong & Koca, Kemal, 2023. "Nuclear energy consumption, energy access and energy poverty: Policy implications for the COP27 and environmental sustainability," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Ottmar Edenhofer & Susanne Kadner & Christoph von Stechow & Gregor Schwerhoff & Gunnar Luderer, 2014. "Linking climate change mitigation research to sustainable development," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 30, pages 476-499, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:123:y:2019:i:c:20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.