IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cii/cepidt/2009-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Les impacts économiques du changement climatique : enjeux de modélisation

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Besson
  • Nina Kousnetzoff

Abstract

Large differences remain between various assessments of the economic impacts of climate change and of the cost of mitigation policies. These are partly due to a number of questionable assumptions in energy-economic modeling, originating in a value system one should be aware of. This study sets up a frame of reference to analyze the impact of modeling choices on the results. Energy-economic models are analyzed, with four examples: ENV-Linkages, GEMINI-E3, IMACLIM-R and POLES. Top-Down models do not catch enough technical progress potentials, whereas Bottom-Up models do not model satisfactorily the feedback effects of the energy sector on the rest of the economy. Recursive dynamic models do not take enough into account the agents’ expectations and cannot build normative scenarios. On the contrary, some hybrid models and all the intertemporal optimization models include an endogenization mechanism which confuses the results. We then analyze the consequences of theoretical differences between models on a practical case: the assessment of the economic value of carbone by GEMINI-E3, IMACLIM-R and POLES. The Stern Review is analyzed in the broader framework of economic growth-environment modelization. The differences in results with other “cost-benefit” models are due to incomplete knowledge of future damages, the choice of an actualization rate and the assessment of non-market damages.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Besson & Nina Kousnetzoff, 2009. "Les impacts économiques du changement climatique : enjeux de modélisation," Working Papers 2009-36, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2009/wp2009-36.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alain Bernard & Marc Vielle, 2008. "GEMINI-E3, a general equilibrium model of international–national interactions between economy, energy and the environment," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 173-206, May.
    2. Jean-Charles Hourcade, Mark Jaccard, Chris Bataille, and Frederic Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-12.
    3. Robert Ayres & Jörg Walter, 1991. "The greenhouse effect: Damages, costs and abatement," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(3), pages 237-270, September.
    4. Sir Nicholas Stern, 2006. "What is the Economics of Climate Change?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, April.
    5. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
    6. Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
    7. Otto, Vincent M. & Loschel, Andreas & Reilly, John M., 2006. "Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12037, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Sandra Poncet, 2006. "The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050," Working Papers 2006-16, CEPII research center.
    9. Lawrence Goulder, 1995. "Environmental taxation and the double dividend: A reader's guide," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 2(2), pages 157-183, August.
    10. Dieter Helm, 2007. "Climate change: Sustainable growth, markets, and institutions," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-05, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    11. Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
    12. Atsushi Kurosawa & Hiroshi Yagita & Weisheng Zhou & Koji Tokimatsu & Yukio Yanagisawa, 1999. "Analysis of Carbon Emission Stabilization Targets and Adaptation by Integrated Assessment Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 157-175.
    13. F. Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2006. "Macroeconomic consistency issues in E3 modeling: The continued fable of the elephant and the rabbit," Post-Print hal-00716324, HAL.
    14. Frederic Ghersi and Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2006. "Macroeconomic Consistency issues in E3 Modeling: The Continued Fable of the Elephant and the Rabbit," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 39-62.
    15. Olivier Godard, 2007. "Le Rapport Stern sur l'économie du changement climatique était-il une manipulation grossière de la méthodologie économique ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 117(4), pages 475-506.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Piluso & Edwin Le Héron, 2017. "La taxe carbone dans une économie d'inspiration keynésienne," Post-Print hal-01454866, HAL.
    2. Anjara Lalaina Jocelyn Rakotoarisoa, 2023. "Un Essai Pour Une Economie De La Pollution," Post-Print hal-04093938, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pablo Pintos & Pedro Linares, 2016. "Assessing the EU ETS with an Integrated Model," Working Papers 01-2016, Economics for Energy.
    2. Xavier Labandeira, Pedro Linares and Miguel Rodriguez, 2009. "An Integrated Approach to Simulate the impacts of Carbon Emissions Trading Schemes," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    3. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    4. Ruben Bibas & Aurélie Méjean, 2014. "Potential and limitations of bioenergy for low carbon transitions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 731-761, April.
    5. Gupta, Dipti & Ghersi, Frédéric & Vishwanathan, Saritha S. & Garg, Amit, 2019. "Achieving sustainable development in India along low carbon pathways: Macroeconomic assessment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade & Daniel Théry, 2010. "Carbon Tax and Equity : The Importance of Policy Design," Post-Print halshs-00692516, HAL.
    7. Julien Lefevre, 2016. "A description of the IMACLIM-BR model: a modeling framework to assess climate and energy policy in Brazil [Une description du modèle IMACLIM-BR: un outil de modélisation pour évaluer les politiques," Working Papers hal-01685947, HAL.
    8. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," CIRED Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    9. Després, Jacques & Hadjsaid, Nouredine & Criqui, Patrick & Noirot, Isabelle, 2015. "Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 486-495.
    10. Carolyn Fischer & Richard D. Morgenstern, 2006. "Carbon Abatement Costs: Why the Wide Range of Estimates?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 73-86.
    11. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    12. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    13. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Camille Thubin, 2010. "La fiscalité carbone au risque des enjeux d'équité," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 59-91.
    14. Lecocq, Franck & Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "How might climate change affect economic growth in developing countries ? a review of the growth literature with a climate lens," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4315, The World Bank.
    15. Bibas, Ruben & Méjean, Aurélie & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, 2015. "Energy efficiency policies and the timing of action: An assessment of climate mitigation costs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 137-152.
    16. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2008. "Combining bottom-up and top-down," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 574-596, March.
    17. Halkos, George, 2014. "The Economics of Climate Change Policy: Critical review and future policy directions," MPRA Paper 56841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13160 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Gonand, Frédéric & Jouvet, Pierre-André, 2015. "The “second dividend” and the demographic structure," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 71-97.
    20. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade & Daniel Théry, 2009. "Need a Carbon Tax be Socially Regressive ? True Challenges and Wrong Debates," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866410, HAL.
    21. Frederic Gonand, 2014. "Dynamic Impacts on Growth and Intergenerational Effects of Energy Transition in a Time of Fiscal Consolidation," Working Papers 1401, Chaire Economie du climat.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.