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Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms

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  • Soummane, Salaheddine
  • Ghersi, Frédéric
  • Lefèvre, Julien

Abstract

We analyse the mid-term macroeconomic challenge to Saudi Arabia of a global low-carbon transition reducing oil revenues, versus the opportunity of national energy reforms. We calibrate a compact, dynamic recursive model of Saudi Arabia on original energy-economy data to explore scenarios. We first assess the consequences of oil prices declining from their levels in the New Policies Scenario (NPS) of the IEA, to their levels in its Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS). By 2030, the Saudi economy loses 1.4 GDP points, 1.6 employment points and USD 504 billion trade surplus accumulation. Its cumulated public deficit rises to 92.8% of GDP. National reforms gradually aligning Saudi energy prices on international prices and inducing structural change of Saudi activity away from energy-intensive industries mitigate these costs if a share of the public income from energy-price deregulation is directed to investment. However, they reduce the cumulated trade surplus and fail to control public deficit accumulation. Sensitivity analysis confirms the capacity of national energy reforms to mitigate the activity cost of global mitigation action, but aggravates the threat of an escalating public deficit. These results underline the importance of broader economic and fiscal reforms as part of the ambitious Vision 2030 Saudi initiative.

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  • Soummane, Salaheddine & Ghersi, Frédéric & Lefèvre, Julien, 2019. "Macroeconomic pathways of the Saudi economy: The challenge of global mitigation action versus the opportunity of national energy reforms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 263-282.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:130:y:2019:i:c:p:263-282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.062
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    3. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    4. Blazquez, Jorge & Galeotti, Marzio & Manzano, Baltasar & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar, 2021. "Effects of Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms: Insights from a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 145-169.
    5. Shehabi, Manal, 2022. "Modeling long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price declines on Gulf oil economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Xin Su & Frédéric Ghersi & Fei Teng & Gaëlle Le Treut & Meicong Liang, 2022. "The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking," Post-Print hal-03897206, HAL.
    7. Nadia Yusuf & Vivian Nasrulddin, 2024. "Significance of International Trade and National GDP as Two Integral Components of Sustainable Economic Development in Saudi Arabia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 2298-2317, March.
    8. Le Treut, Gaëlle & Lefèvre, Julien & Lallana, Francisco & Bravo, Gonzalo, 2021. "The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2020. "The IMACLIM-SAU model Version 1.0," CIRED Working Papers hal-03099334, HAL.
    10. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, 2022. "Nationalization of the private sector labor force, quotas, matching and public jobs, an illustration with Saudi Arabia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 98-117.
    11. Xin Su & Frédéric Ghersi & Fei Teng & Gaëlle Treut & Meicong Liang, 2022. "The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-37, January.
    12. Salaheddine Soummane & F. Ghersi, 2022. "Projecting Saudi sectoral electricity demand in 2030 using a computable general equilibrium model," Post-Print hal-03500916, HAL.
    13. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Almutairi, Hossa & Aljarboua, Abdullah & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar & Murphy, Frederic, 2023. "Hard-linking a top-down economic model with a bottom-up energy system for an oil-exporting country with price controls," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).

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