IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v158y2020ics0040162520309562.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An empirical discourse on forecasting the use of autonomous vehicles using consumers’ preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Saeed, Tariq Usman
  • Burris, Mark W.
  • Labi, Samuel
  • Sinha, Kumares C.

Abstract

Given many known and unknown uncertainties, it is hard to forecast reliably the mode choices, expected to prevail with autonomous vehicle (AV) technology; however, the key to getting some idea lies in understanding the preferences of end users. In this vein, a random parameters logit model is employed to study the consumers’ preferences in small- and medium-sized metropolitan areas, based on their travel behavior and household characteristics, socio-demographic features, awareness about AV technology and new travel choices, psychological factors, and built environment features. Most of the past studies hypothesize that due to a wide range of anticipated benefits, there would be increased use of AVs especially as a shared service where multiple travelers use the same AV concomitantly. However, the results from this study do not support the hypothesis that vehicle ownership will be an obsolete model at least during the early phase of transitioning to the self-driving era (when roads are expected to contain vehicles with and without human drivers). The findings of this study reveal key factors influencing consumer preferences and offer important insights to technology developers and service providers in understanding the ways consumers would like to use this technology and hence, defining the business model.

Suggested Citation

  • Saeed, Tariq Usman & Burris, Mark W. & Labi, Samuel & Sinha, Kumares C., 2020. "An empirical discourse on forecasting the use of autonomous vehicles using consumers’ preferences," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:158:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520309562
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120130
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520309562
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120130?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
    2. Barbour, Natalia & Menon, Nikhil & Zhang, Yu & Mannering, Fred, 2019. "Shared automated vehicles: A statistical analysis of consumer use likelihoods and concerns," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-93.
    3. Jiang, Ruth & Kleer, Robin & Piller, Frank T., 2017. "Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 84-97.
    4. Daniel J. Fagnant & Kara M. Kockelman, 2018. "Dynamic ride-sharing and fleet sizing for a system of shared autonomous vehicles in Austin, Texas," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 143-158, January.
    5. Martínez-Torres, M.R. & Díaz-Fernández, M.C. & Toral, S.L. & Barrero, F., 2015. "The moderating role of prior experience in technological acceptance models for ubiquitous computing services in urban environments," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 146-160.
    6. Christina Pakusch & Gunnar Stevens & Alexander Boden & Paul Bossauer, 2018. "Unintended Effects of Autonomous Driving: A Study on Mobility Preferences in the Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Lawrence D. Burns, 2013. "A vision of our transport future," Nature, Nature, vol. 497(7448), pages 181-182, May.
    8. Qiao, Yu & Saeed, Tariq Usman & Chen, Sikai & Nateghi, Roshanak & Labi, Samuel, 2018. "Acquiring insights into infrastructure repair policy using discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 491-508.
    9. Aggelos Soteropoulos & Martin Berger & Francesco Ciari, 2019. "Impacts of automated vehicles on travel behaviour and land use: an international review of modelling studies," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 29-49, January.
    10. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.
    11. Gopindra Sivakumar Nair & Sebastian Astroza & Chandra R. Bhat & Sara Khoeini & Ram M. Pendyala, 2018. "An application of a rank ordered probit modeling approach to understanding level of interest in autonomous vehicles," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1623-1637, November.
    12. Junquera, Beatriz & Moreno, Blanca & Álvarez, Roberto, 2016. "Analyzing consumer attitudes towards electric vehicle purchasing intentions in Spain: Technological limitations and vehicle confidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 6-14.
    13. Prateek Bansal & Kara M. Kockelman, 2018. "Are we ready to embrace connected and self-driving vehicles? A case study of Texans," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 641-675, March.
    14. Hohenberger, Christoph & Spörrle, Matthias & Welpe, Isabell M., 2016. "How and why do men and women differ in their willingness to use automated cars? The influence of emotions across different age groups," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 374-385.
    15. Meuter, Matthew L. & Ostrom, Amy L. & Bitner, Mary Jo & Roundtree, Robert, 2003. "The influence of technology anxiety on consumer use and experiences with self-service technologies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 899-906, November.
    16. Barff, Richard & MacKay, David & Olshavsky, Richard W, 1982. "A Selective Review of Travel-Mode Choice Models," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 8(4), pages 370-380, March.
    17. Fagnant, Daniel J. & Kockelman, Kara, 2015. "Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles: opportunities, barriers and policy recommendations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 167-181.
    18. Hohenberger, Christoph & Spörrle, Matthias & Welpe, Isabell M., 2017. "Not fearless, but self-enhanced: The effects of anxiety on the willingness to use autonomous cars depend on individual levels of self-enhancement," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 40-52.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lindgren, Thomas & Pink, Sarah & Fors, Vaike, 2021. "Fore-sighting autonomous driving - An Ethnographic approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Li, Tianhao & Chen, Peng & Tian, Ye, 2021. "Personalized incentive-based peak avoidance and drivers’ travel time-savings," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 68-80.
    3. Alvarez León, Luis F. & Aoyama, Yuko, 2022. "Industry emergence and market capture: The rise of autonomous vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Lee, Changyeon, 2020. "Impacts of two-scale urban form and their combined effects on commute modes in U.S. metropolitan areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Jiang, Ying & Guo, Zijian & Zhang, Runsen & Zong, Weiyan & Zhang, Junyi, 2023. "How do expected changes in life affect young people's stated ownership of privately-owned autonomous vehicles: A comparative study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 71-81.
    6. Konstantina Anastasiadou & Nikolaos Gavanas & Christos Pyrgidis & Magda Pitsiava-Latinopoulou, 2021. "Identifying and Prioritizing Sustainable Urban Mobility Barriers through a Modified Delphi-AHP Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Sharma, Ishant & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2022. "Quantifying the consumer’s dependence on different information sources on acceptance of autonomous vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 179-203.
    8. Dubey, Subodh & Sharma, Ishant & Mishra, Sabyasachee & Cats, Oded & Bansal, Prateek, 2022. "A General Framework to Forecast the Adoption of Novel Products: A Case of Autonomous Vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 63-95.
    9. Li, Dun & Huang, Youlin & Qian, Lixian, 2022. "Potential adoption of robotaxi service: The roles of perceived benefits to multiple stakeholders and environmental awareness," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 120-135.
    10. Hassan, Hany M. & Ferguson, Mark R. & Vrkljan, Brenda & Newbold, Bruce & Razavi, Saiedeh, 2021. "Older adults and their willingness to use semi and fully autonomous vehicles: A structural equation analysis11Revised manuscript prepared for publication at the special issue in Journal of Transport G," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    11. Yoganathan, Vignesh & Osburg, Victoria-Sophie, 2024. "Heterogenous evaluations of autonomous vehicle services: An extended theoretical framework and empirical evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    12. Collins, Mor & Etzioni, Shelly & Ben-Elia, Eran, 2024. "Travel behavior and system dynamics in a simple gamified automated multimodal network," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    13. Tao, Tao & Cao, Jason, 2022. "Examining motivations for owning autonomous vehicles: Implications for land use and transportation," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Pel, Bonno & Raven, Rob & van Est, Rinie, 2020. "Transitions governance with a sense of direction: synchronization challenges in the case of the dutch ‘Driverless Car’ transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    15. Shelly Etzioni & Jamil Hamadneh & Arnór B. Elvarsson & Domokos Esztergár-Kiss & Milena Djukanovic & Stelios N. Neophytou & Jaka Sodnik & Amalia Polydoropoulou & Ioannis Tsouros & Cristina Pronello & N, 2020. "Modeling Cross-National Differences in Automated Vehicle Acceptance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-22, November.
    16. Su, Yu-Shan & Huang, Hsini & Daim, Tugrul & Chien, Pan-Wei & Peng, Ru-Ling & Karaman Akgul, Arzu, 2023. "Assessing the technological trajectory of 5G-V2X autonomous driving inventions: Use of patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    17. Sueur, Cédric & Piermattéo, Anthony & Pelé, Marie, 2021. "Eye image effect in the context of pedestrian safety: a French questionnaire study," OSF Preprints d6w7v, Center for Open Science.
    18. Jinping Guan & Shuang Zhang & Lisa A. D’Ambrosio & Kai Zhang & Joseph F. Coughlin, 2021. "Potential Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Sprawl: A Comparison of Chinese and US Car-Oriented Adults," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Amalia Polydoropoulou & Ioannis Tsouros & Nikolas Thomopoulos & Cristina Pronello & Arnór Elvarsson & Haraldur Sigþórsson & Nima Dadashzadeh & Kristina Stojmenova & Jaka Sodnik & Stelios Neophytou & D, 2021. "Who Is Willing to Share Their AV? Insights about Gender Differences among Seven Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, April.
    20. Kalakou, Sofia & Marques, Catarina & Prazeres, Duarte & Agouridas, Vassilis, 2023. "Citizens' attitudes towards technological innovations: The case of urban air mobility," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    21. McLeay, Fraser & Olya, Hossein & Liu, Hongfei & Jayawardhena, Chanaka & Dennis, Charles, 2022. "A multi-analytical approach to studying customers motivations to use innovative totally autonomous vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    22. Loes M. Derikx & Dea van Lierop, 2021. "Intentions to Participate in Carsharing: The Role of Self- and Social Identity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-31, February.
    23. Guan, Jinping & Chen, Kexin & Mao, Runfei & Shamshiripour, Ali & Zhang, Xiaochun & Liang, Chen & Ben-Akiva, Moshe, 2024. "The willingness to pay for the automated vehicle subscription: Insights from a car-oriented population in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    24. Ishant Sharma & Sabyasachee Mishra, 2023. "Ranking preferences towards adopting autonomous vehicles based on peer inputs and advertisements," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2139-2192, December.
    25. Rungskunroch, Panrawee & Jack, Anson & Kaewunruen, Sakdirat, 2021. "Benchmarking on railway safety performance using Bayesian inference, decision tree and petri-net techniques based on long-term accidental data sets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wali, Behram & Santi, Paolo & Ratti, Carlo, 2023. "Are californians willing to use shared automated vehicles (SAV) & renounce existing vehicles? An empirical analysis of factors determining SAV use & household vehicle ownership," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Li, Dun & Huang, Youlin & Qian, Lixian, 2022. "Potential adoption of robotaxi service: The roles of perceived benefits to multiple stakeholders and environmental awareness," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 120-135.
    3. Kassens-Noor, Eva & Dake, Dana & Decaminada, Travis & Kotval-K, Zeenat & Qu, Teresa & Wilson, Mark & Pentland, Brian, 2020. "Sociomobility of the 21st century: Autonomous vehicles, planning, and the future city," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 329-335.
    4. Nastjuk, Ilja & Herrenkind, Bernd & Marrone, Mauricio & Brendel, Alfred Benedikt & Kolbe, Lutz M., 2020. "What drives the acceptance of autonomous driving? An investigation of acceptance factors from an end-user's perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Hohenberger, Christoph & Spörrle, Matthias & Welpe, Isabell M., 2017. "Not fearless, but self-enhanced: The effects of anxiety on the willingness to use autonomous cars depend on individual levels of self-enhancement," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 40-52.
    6. Dubey, Subodh & Sharma, Ishant & Mishra, Sabyasachee & Cats, Oded & Bansal, Prateek, 2022. "A General Framework to Forecast the Adoption of Novel Products: A Case of Autonomous Vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 63-95.
    7. Shelly Etzioni & Jamil Hamadneh & Arnór B. Elvarsson & Domokos Esztergár-Kiss & Milena Djukanovic & Stelios N. Neophytou & Jaka Sodnik & Amalia Polydoropoulou & Ioannis Tsouros & Cristina Pronello & N, 2020. "Modeling Cross-National Differences in Automated Vehicle Acceptance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-22, November.
    8. Liu, Peng & Zhang, Yawen & He, Zhen, 2019. "The effect of population age on the acceptable safety of self-driving vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 341-347.
    9. Guo, Yuntao & Souders, Dustin & Labi, Samuel & Peeta, Srinivas & Benedyk, Irina & Li, Yujie, 2021. "Paving the way for autonomous Vehicles: Understanding autonomous vehicle adoption and vehicle fuel choice under user heterogeneity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 364-398.
    10. Talebian, Ahmadreza & Mishra, Sabyasachee, 2022. "Unfolding the state of the adoption of connected autonomous trucks by the commercial fleet owner industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    11. Andreja Pucihar & Iztok Zajc & Radovan Sernec & Gregor Lenart, 2019. "Living Lab as an Ecosystem for Development, Demonstration and Assessment of Autonomous Mobility Solutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Wang, Jinghui & Yang, Hao, 2023. "Low carbon future of vehicle sharing, automation, and electrification: A review of modeling mobility behavior and demand," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    13. Zhou, Fan & Zheng, Zuduo & Whitehead, Jake & Perrons, Robert K. & Washington, Simon & Page, Lionel, 2020. "Examining the impact of car-sharing on private vehicle ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 322-341.
    14. Liu, Peng & Ma, Yanjiao & Zuo, Yaqing, 2019. "Self-driving vehicles: Are people willing to trade risks for environmental benefits?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 139-149.
    15. Liu, Peng & Xu, Zhigang & Zhao, Xiangmo, 2019. "Road tests of self-driving vehicles: Affective and cognitive pathways in acceptance formation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 354-369.
    16. Zhou, Fan & Zheng, Zuduo & Whitehead, Jake & Washington, Simon & Perrons, Robert K. & Page, Lionel, 2020. "Preference heterogeneity in mode choice for car-sharing and shared automated vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 633-650.
    17. Wang, Fei & Zhang, Zhentai & Lin, Shoufu, 2023. "Purchase intention of Autonomous vehicles and industrial Policies: Evidence from a national survey in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Vij, Akshay & Ryan, Stacey & Sampson, Spring & Harris, Susan, 2020. "Consumer preferences for on-demand transport in Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 823-839.
    19. Nadafianshahamabadi, Razieh & Tayarani, Mohammad & Rowangould, Gregory, 2021. "A closer look at urban development under the emergence of autonomous vehicles: Traffic, land use and air quality impacts," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Gurumurthy, Krishna Murthy & Kockelman, Kara M., 2020. "Modeling Americans’ autonomous vehicle preferences: A focus on dynamic ride-sharing, privacy & long-distance mode choices," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:158:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520309562. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.