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Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception

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  • Grant Miller
  • Aureo de Paula
  • Christine Valente

Abstract

Nearly one-quarter of married, fertile-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa say that they want to avoid pregnancy but are not using contraceptives. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to study this puzzle in a developing country using detailed data on women’s subjec- tive probabilistic beliefs about contraception and contraceptive attributes. Policy counterfactuals based on a structural model suggest that costly interventions such as eliminating supply constraints would only have modest effects on contraceptive use. Alternatively, increasing partners’ approval of methods, aligning partners’ fertility preferences with women’s, and correcting women’s expectations about pregnancy risk absent contraception have the potential to increase use considerably. We provide additional empirical support for this last result through a before/after experiment in which we find that simply (and effectively) informing women about underlying pregnancy risk increases stated intentions to use contraception substantially, in line with our initial estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Grant Miller & Aureo de Paula & Christine Valente, 2020. "Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 20/724, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  • Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:20/724
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    2. Borra, Cristina & González, Libertad & Patiño, David, 2021. "Maternal Age and Infant Health," CINCH Working Paper Series (since 2020) 74847, Duisburg-Essen University Library, DuEPublico.
    3. Gizem Koşar & Cormac O'Dea, 2022. "Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 30094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Barili, E. & Bertoli, P. & Grembi, V. & Rattini, V., 2021. "COVID Angels Fighting Daily Demons? Mental Health of Healthcare Workers and Religion," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 21/05, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    5. Conti, G.; & Giustinelli, P.;, 2022. "For Better or Worse? Subjective Expectations and Cost-Benefit Trade-Offs in Health Behavior: An Application to Lockdown Compliance in the United Kingdom," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 22/14, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Kettlewell, Nathan & Walker, Matthew J. & Yoo, Hong Il, 2024. "Alternative Models of Preference Heterogeneity for Elicited Choice Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 16821, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Romuald Méango & François Poinas, 2023. "The (Option-) Value of Overstaying," CESifo Working Paper Series 10536, CESifo.
    8. Kronenberg, Christoph, 2020. "New(spaper) Evidence of a Reduction in Suicide Mentions during the 19th‐century US Gold Rush," CINCH Working Paper Series (since 2020) 73382, Duisburg-Essen University Library, DuEPublico.
    9. Cassidy, Rachel & Groot Bruinderink, Marije & Janssens, Wendy & Morsink, Karlijn, 2021. "The power to protect: Household bargaining and female condom use," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    10. Gabriella Conti & Pamela Giustinelli, 2023. "For better or worse? Subjective expectations and cost-benefit trade-offs in health behavior," IFS Working Papers W23/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. D’Exelle, Ben & Ringdal, Charlotte, 2022. "Women’s use of family planning services: An experiment on the husband’s involvement," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Fischer, Martin & Karlsson, Martin & Prodromidis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The Long-Term Effects of Hospital Deliveries," IZA Discussion Papers 14562, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. M. Kate Bundorf & Jill DeMatteis & Grant Miller & Maria Polyakova & Jialu L. Streeter & Jonathan Wivagg, 2021. "Risk Perceptions and Protective Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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