IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v103y2021icp103-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on China’s transport sectors based on the CGE model coupled with a decomposition analysis approach

Author

Listed:
  • Cui, Qi
  • He, Ling
  • Liu, Yu
  • Zheng, Yanting
  • Wei, Wei
  • Yang, Bo
  • Zhou, Meifang

Abstract

As one of the most vulnerable sectors exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic, transport sectors have been severely affected. However, the shocks and impact mechanisms of infectious diseases on transport sectors are not fully understood. This paper employs a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of China, CHINAGEM, with highly disaggregated transport sectors to examine the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's transport sectors and reveal the impact mechanisms of the pandemic shocks with the decomposition analysis approach. This study suggests that, first, multiple shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic to transport sectors are specified, including the supply-side shocks that raised the protective cost and reduced the production efficiency of transport sectors, and the demand-side shocks that reduced the demand of households and production sectors for transportation. Second, the outputs of all transport sectors in China have been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and passenger transport sectors have larger output decreases than freight transport sectors. While the outputs of freight transport sectors are expected to decline by 1.03–2.85%, the outputs of passenger transport sectors would decline by 3.08–11.44%. Third, with the decomposition analysis, the impacts of various exogenous shocks are quite different, while the changes in the output of different transport sectors are dominated by different exogenous shocks. Lastly, while the supply-side shocks of the pandemic would drive output decline in railway, waterway, and aviation transport sectors, the demand-side shocks would drive so in the road, pipeline, and other transport sectors. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has negative impacts on the output of most non-transport sectors and the macro-economy in China. Three policy implications are recommended to mitigate the damages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to the transport sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Cui, Qi & He, Ling & Liu, Yu & Zheng, Yanting & Wei, Wei & Yang, Bo & Zhou, Meifang, 2021. "The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on China’s transport sectors based on the CGE model coupled with a decomposition analysis approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 103-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:103:y:2021:i:c:p:103-115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.01.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X21000238
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.01.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2004. "Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 113-131.
    2. Ji Chou & Nai-Fong Kuo & Su-Ling Peng, 2004. "Potential Impacts of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwan's Economy," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 84-99.
    3. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A., 2020. "Insights into the impact of COVID-19 on household travel and activities in Australia – The early days of easing restrictions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 95-119.
    4. Bombelli, Alessandro, 2020. "Integrators' global networks: A topology analysis with insights into the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    7. Zhang, Junyi, 2020. "Transport policymaking that accounts for COVID-19 and future public health threats: A PASS approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 405-418.
    8. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    9. Chen, Zhenhua & Daito, Nobuhiko & Gifford, Jonathan L., 2017. "Socioeconomic impacts of transportation public-private partnerships: A dynamic CGE assessment," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 80-87.
    10. Yetkiner, Hakan & Beyzatlar, Mehmet Aldonat, 2020. "The Granger-causality between wealth and transportation: A panel data approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 19-25.
    11. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    12. Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming & Wang, Jiaoe, 2020. "Exploring the roles of high-speed train, air and coach services in the spread of COVID-19 in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 34-42.
    13. Chen, Zhenhua & Rose, Adam Z. & Prager, Fynnwin & Chatterjee, Samrat, 2017. "Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 207-226.
    14. Zhang, Shihang & Moeckel, Rolf & Moreno, Ana Tsui & Shuai, Bin & Gao, Jie, 2020. "A work-life conflict perspective on telework," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 51-68.
    15. Nakamura, Hiroki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Airport risk of importation and exportation of the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 40-47.
    16. Yang, Yang & Zhang, Hongru & Chen, Xiang, 2020. "Coronavirus pandemic and tourism: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling of infectious disease outbreak," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Chen, Zhenhua & Xue, Junbo & Rose, Adam Z. & Haynes, Kingsley E., 2016. "The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China: A dynamic CGE analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 232-245.
    18. W. Jill Harrison & J. Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson, 2000. "Decomposing Simulation Results with Respect to Exogenous Shocks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 15(3), pages 227-249, June.
    19. Betarelli, Admir Antonio & Domingues, Edson Paulo & Hewings, Geoffrey John Dennis, 2020. "Transport policy, rail freight sector and market structure: The economic effects in Brazil," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-23.
    20. Oum, Tae Hoon & Wang, Kun, 2020. "Socially optimal lockdown and travel restrictions for fighting communicable virus including COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 94-100.
    21. Ilaria Regondi & Gavin George & Natashya Pillay, 2013. "HIV/AIDS in the transport sector of southern Africa: Operational challenges, research gaps and policy recommendations," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4-5), pages 616-628, December.
    22. Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    23. Feng, Shenghao & Howes, Stephen & Liu, Yu & Zhang, Keyu & Yang, Jun, 2018. "Towards a national ETS in China: Cap-setting and model mechanisms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 43-52.
    24. Smith, Richard D. & Keogh-Brown, Marcus R. & Barnett, Tony, 2011. "Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 235-244, July.
    25. Hongbo Duan & Shouyang Wang & Cuihong Yang, 2020. "Coronavirus: limit short-term economic damage," Nature, Nature, vol. 578(7796), pages 515-515, February.
    26. Adam Blake & M. Thea Sinclair & Guntur Sugiyarto, 2003. "Quantifying the Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease on Tourism and the UK Economy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(4), pages 449-465, December.
    27. Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Voltes-Dorta, Augusto & Cugueró-Escofet, Natàlia, 2020. "An early assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on air transport: Just another crisis or the end of aviation as we know it?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Betarelli Junior, Admir Antonio & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Proque, Andressa Lemes & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & de Almeida Vale, Vinicius, 2021. "COVID-19, public agglomerations and economic effects: Assessing the recovery time of passenger transport services in Brazil," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 254-272.
    2. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zheng, Changhong & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Yang, Yang & Liu, Qing & Chang, Chia-Hsun, 2023. "China-Europe freight transportation under the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic and government restriction measures," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Liu, Yawen & Cui, Qi & Liu, Yu & Zhang, Jinzhu & Zhou, Meifang & Ali, Tariq & Yang, Lingyu & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Li, Xinbei, 2021. "Countermeasures against economic crisis from COVID-19 pandemic in China: An analysis of effectiveness and trade-offs," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 482-495.
    5. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "On the degree of synchronization between air transport connectivity and COVID-19 cases at worldwide level," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 115-123.
    6. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    7. Tiberiu Cristian Avrămescu, 2020. "Assessments on the Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Economies of the Central and South-East European Union Countries," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 105-112, August.
    8. Pham, Tien Duc & Dwyer, Larry & Su, Jen-Je & Ngo, Tramy, 2021. "COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Verikios, George, 2017. "The Importance of Periodicity in Modelling Infectious Disease Outbreaks," Conference papers 332907, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. An, Yunlong & Lin, Xi & Li, Meng & He, Fang, 2021. "Dynamic governance decisions on multi-modal inter-city travel during a large-scale epidemic spreading," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 29-42.
    11. Zhou, Huiyu & Wang, Yacan & Huscroft, Joseph R. & Bai, Kailing, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 and anti-pandemic policies on urban transport—an empirical study in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 135-149.
    12. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    13. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2022. "Research frontier of COVID-19 and passenger transport: A focus on policymaking," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 78-88.
    14. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu & Frank, Lawrence D., 2021. "COVID-19 and transport: Findings from a world-wide expert survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 68-85.
    15. Zhang, Qiang & Tong, Qiong, 2021. "The economic impacts of traffic consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in China: A CGE analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 330-337.
    16. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401, March.
    17. Tiberiu Cristian Avramescu, 2020. "Assessments Onthe Effects Of The Coronavirus Pandemic On The Romanian Economy," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 57-64, June.
    18. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2020. "Réflexions sur la crise actuelle de l’économie camerounaise liée au COVID-19 [Thoughts about the costs of the current crisis in the Cameroonian economy linked to COVID-19]," MPRA Paper 116377, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Verikios, George & Sullivan, Maura & Stojanovski, Pane & Giesecke, James & Woo, Gordon, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Conference papers 332033, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. De Bruin, Kelly & Monaghan, Eoin & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2020. "The environmental and economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Irish economy: An application of the I3E model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS106.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:103:y:2021:i:c:p:103-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.