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Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza

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  • Yothin Jinjarak

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

  • Ilan Noy

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

  • Quy Ta

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

Abstract

We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Flu pandemic’s economic cost in a cross-section of 52 countries. Using excess mortality rates as a proxy for the country-specific severity of the pandemic, we find that the average mortality rate (0.0062% per pandemic wave) was associated with a decline in output of 2.4% over the two pandemic waves. Our estimates also suggest the losses in consumption (-1.9%), investment (-1.2%), and productivity (-1.9%) over the two pandemic waves. The results are robust across regressions using alternative measures of mortality and output loss. The study adds to the current literature new empirical evidence on the economic consequences of the past pandemics in light of the potential impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:6:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s41885-021-00096-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s41885-021-00096-1
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yu Pang, 2022. "A theory of fiscal policy response to an epidemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 2050-2071, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output loss; Productivity; Pandemics; Hong Kong flu; H3N2;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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