IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v92y2016icp232-245.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China: A dynamic CGE analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Zhenhua
  • Xue, Junbo
  • Rose, Adam Z.
  • Haynes, Kingsley E.

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of high-speed rail investment on the economy and environment in China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The analysis is implemented in a dynamic recursive framework capturing long-run capital accumulation and labor market equilibrium. A national level impact was simulated through direct impact drivers including land use conversion, output expansion, cost reduction, productivity increase, transport demand substitution and induced demand. The results suggest that rail investment in China over the past decade has been a positive stimulus to the economy, while the effect on CO2 emissions generation has been large. Overall, the economic impacts of rail investment are achieved primarily through induced demand and output expansion, whereas the contribution from a reduction of rail transportation costs and rail productivity increases were modest. In addition, negligible negative impacts were found from land use for rail development and the substitution effect among other modes. Emissions reduction from substitution of rail for other modes was small and offset by output expansion due to lowered rail transport costs and induced demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhenhua & Xue, Junbo & Rose, Adam Z. & Haynes, Kingsley E., 2016. "The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China: A dynamic CGE analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 232-245.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:92:y:2016:i:c:p:232-245
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.08.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856416306681
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2016.08.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moshe Givoni & Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2013. "A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/152140, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Peter Nijkamp & Adam Rose & Karima Kourtit (ed.), 2015. "Regional Science Matters," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-07305-7, March.
    3. Chen, Zhenhua & Haynes, Kingsley E., 2015. "Impact of high speed rail on housing values: an observation from the Beijing–Shanghai line," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 91-100.
    4. El-Said, Moataz & Lofgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "The impact of alternative development strategies on growth and distribution: simulations with a dynamic model for Egypt," TMD discussion papers 78, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Zhenhua Chen & Kingsley Haynes, 2015. "Multilevel assessment of public transportation infrastructure: a spatial econometric computable general equilibrium approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(3), pages 663-685, May.
    6. Zhenhua Chen & Kingsley E. Haynes, 2015. "Impact of high-speed rail on international tourism demand in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 57-60, January.
    7. Robert Armstrong & Daniel Rodríguez, 2006. "An Evaluation of the Accessibility Benefits of Commuter Rail in Eastern Massachusetts using Spatial Hedonic Price Functions," Transportation, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 21-43, January.
    8. Westin, Jonas & Kågeson, Per, 2011. "Can high speed rail offset its embedded emissions?," Working papers in Transport Economics 2011:16, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    9. Stephen Casler & Adam Rose, 1998. "Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the U.S. Economy: A Structural Decomposition Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 349-363, April.
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Sun, Chuanwang, 2010. "Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 613-621, January.
    11. Daniel J. Graham, 2007. "Agglomeration, Productivity and Transport Investment," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 41(3), pages 317-343, September.
    12. Morley, Samuel & Piñeiro, Valeria & Robinson, Sherman, 2011. "A dynamic computable general equilibrium model with working capital for Honduras:," IFPRI discussion papers 1130, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    13. Jon Strand & Mette Vågnes, 2001. "The relationship between property values and railroad proximity: a study based on hedonic prices and real estate brokers' appraisals," Transportation, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 137-156, May.
    14. David Gillen & David Levinson & Jean Michel Mathieu & Adib Kanafani, 1997. "The full cost of high-speed rail: an engineering approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 31(2), pages 189-215.
    15. Ginés de Rus, 2008. "The Economic Effects of High Speed Rail Investment," OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers 2008/16, OECD Publishing.
    16. Ginés de Rus & Gustavo Nombela, 2007. "Is Investment in High Speed Rail Socially Profitable?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 41(1), pages 3-23, January.
    17. Moshe Givoni & Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2013. "A Review of Ex-Post Evidence for Mode Substitution and Induced Demand Following the Introduction of High-Speed Rail," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 720-742, November.
    18. Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion & Eric Pels & Piet Rietveld, 2011. "The Impact of Rail Transport on Real Estate Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(5), pages 997-1015, April.
    19. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
    20. Vicente Inglada & GinÊs de Rus, 1997. "Cost-benefit analysis of the high-speed train in Spain," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 31(2), pages 175-188.
    21. Bröcker, Johannes & Korzhenevych, Artem & Schürmann, Carsten, 2010. "Assessing spatial equity and efficiency impacts of transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 795-811, August.
    22. McDonald, Scott, 2005. "The PROVIDE Project Standard Computable General Equilibrium Model: Version 2," Technical Paper Series 15625, PROVIDE Project.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Anming & Wan, Yulai & Yang, Hangjun, 2019. "Impacts of high-speed rail on airlines, airports and regional economies: A survey of recent research," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Campos, Javier & de Rus, Ginés, 2009. "Some stylized facts about high-speed rail: A review of HSR experiences around the world," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-28, January.
    3. Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Dehon, Catherine & Givoni, Moshe, 2014. "Does European high-speed rail affect the current level of air services? An EU-wide analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 461-475.
    4. De Rus Ginés, 2011. "The BCA of HSR: Should the Government Invest in High Speed Rail Infrastructure?," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-28, January.
    5. Perl, Anthony D. & Goetz, Andrew R., 2015. "Corridors, hybrids and networks: three global development strategies for high speed rail," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 134-144.
    6. Wang, Kun & Xia, Wenyi & Zhang, Anming, 2017. "Should China further expand its high-speed rail network? Consider the low-cost carrier factor," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 105-120.
    7. Wang, Jiaoe & Du, Delin & Huang, Jie, 2020. "Inter-city connections in China: High-speed train vs. inter-city coach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Chen, Zhenhua & Daito, Nobuhiko & Gifford, Jonathan L., 2017. "Socioeconomic impacts of transportation public-private partnerships: A dynamic CGE assessment," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 80-87.
    9. Daniel Albalate & Germá Bel, 2015. "La experiencia internacional en alta velocidad ferroviaria," Working Papers 2015-02, FEDEA.
    10. Borsati, Mattia & Albalate, Daniel, 2020. "On the modal shift from motorway to high-speed rail: evidence from Italy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 145-164.
    11. Daniel Albalate & Javier Campos & Juan Luis Jiménez, 2015. "“Tourism and high speed rail in Spain: Does the AVE increase local visitors?”," IREA Working Papers 201527, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2015.
    12. Yang, Haoran & Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Wang, Jiaoe & Dijst, Martin & Witte, Patrick, 2018. "Comparing China's urban systems in high-speed railway and airline networks," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 233-244.
    13. Chen, Zhenhua & Haynes, Kingsley E., 2015. "Impact of high speed rail on housing values: an observation from the Beijing–Shanghai line," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 91-100.
    14. de Rus Ginés & Socorro M. Pilar, 2017. "Planning, Evaluation and Financing of Transport Infrastructures: Rethinking the Basics," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 143-160, June.
    15. Tiziana D'Alfonso & Changmin Jiang & Valentina Bracaglia, 2015. "Air transport and high-speed rail competition: environmental implications and mitigation strategies," DIAG Technical Reports 2015-15, Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering, Universita' degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza".
    16. Aaron Gutiérrez & Daniel Miravet & Òscar Saladié & Salvador Anton Clavé, 2020. "High-speed rail, tourists’ destination choice and length of stay: A survival model analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 578-597, June.
    17. Chen, Zhenhua & Haynes, Kingsley E., 2017. "Impact of high-speed rail on regional economic disparity in China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 80-91.
    18. D’Alfonso, Tiziana & Jiang, Changmin & Bracaglia, Valentina, 2016. "Air transport and high-speed rail competition: Environmental implications and mitigation strategies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 261-276.
    19. Adler, Nicole & Pels, Eric & Nash, Chris, 2010. "High-speed rail and air transport competition: Game engineering as tool for cost-benefit analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 812-833, August.
    20. Albalate, Daniel & León-Gómez, Carlos R., 2024. "High-Speed Rail: A game changer for Spanish motorway transport?," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:92:y:2016:i:c:p:232-245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.