IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transb/v122y2019icp265-286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating probability distributions of travel demand on a congested network

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Yudi
  • Fan, Yueyue
  • Royset, Johannes O.

Abstract

We aim to infer the probability density function (pdf) of Origin–Destination (O–D) demand variables using multiple sets of traffic counts over a network. Through integrating statistics and optimization techniques with transportation domain knowledge, we propose an estimation framework based on Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) with both options of exact and approximated estimators. Compared with existing methods for day-to-day O–D matrix estimation, our approach has three unique advantages. First, it is a rigorous statistical method with a capability of incorporating complex traffic network models suitable for a congested network. Second, our estimation framework is flexible to handle a wide variety of probabilistic models. Finally, instead of just providing point estimates, it reveals large sample statistical properties of the proposed estimator, which serve as a theoretical foundation for assessing estimation quality, constructing confidence region and testing model adequacy. Three numerical examples of different scales are accompanied to demonstrate various aspects of the proposed estimation framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Yudi & Fan, Yueyue & Royset, Johannes O., 2019. "Estimating probability distributions of travel demand on a congested network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 265-286.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:122:y:2019:i:c:p:265-286
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2019.01.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261518307422
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.trb.2019.01.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clark, Stephen & Watling, David, 2005. "Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 119-140, February.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1992. "On Efficiency of Methods of Simulated Moments and Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Discrete Response Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 518-552, December.
    4. Anthony Chen & Zhong Zhou & Piya Chootinan & Seungkyu Ryu & Chao Yang & S. Wong, 2011. "Transport Network Design Problem under Uncertainty: A Review and New Developments," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 743-768.
    5. Hazelton, Martin L., 2001. "Inference for origin-destination matrices: estimation, prediction and reconstruction," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 667-676, August.
    6. Shao, Hu & Lam, William H.K. & Sumalee, Agachai & Chen, Anthony & Hazelton, Martin L., 2014. "Estimation of mean and covariance of peak hour origin–destination demands from day-to-day traffic counts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 52-75.
    7. Maher, M. J., 1983. "Inferences on trip matrices from observations on link volumes: A Bayesian statistical approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 435-447, December.
    8. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
    9. Olaf Jahn & Rolf H. Möhring & Andreas S. Schulz & Nicolás E. Stier-Moses, 2005. "System-Optimal Routing of Traffic Flows with User Constraints in Networks with Congestion," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 600-616, August.
    10. Cascetta, Ennio, 1984. "Estimation of trip matrices from traffic counts and survey data: A generalized least squares estimator," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 18(4-5), pages 289-299.
    11. Hai Yang & Qiang Meng & Michael G. H. Bell, 2001. "Simultaneous Estimation of the Origin-Destination Matrices and Travel-Cost Coefficient for Congested Networks in a Stochastic User Equilibrium," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(2), pages 107-123, May.
    12. Hazelton, Martin L., 2000. "Estimation of origin-destination matrices from link flows on uncongested networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 549-566, September.
    13. Bell, Michael G. H., 1991. "The estimation of origin-destination matrices by constrained generalised least squares," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 13-22, February.
    14. Spiess, Heinz, 1987. "A maximum likelihood model for estimating origin-destination matrices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 395-412, October.
    15. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-591, May.
    16. Yang, Hai, 1995. "Heuristic algorithms for the bilevel origin-destination matrix estimation problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 231-242, August.
    17. Yu Nie & H. Zhang, 2010. "A Relaxation Approach for Estimating Origin–Destination Trip Tables," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 147-172, March.
    18. Yang, Yudi & Fan, Yueyue & Wets, Roger J.B., 2018. "Stochastic travel demand estimation: Improving network identifiability using multi-day observation sets," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 192-211.
    19. Hazelton, Martin L., 2008. "Statistical inference for time varying origin-destination matrices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 542-552, July.
    20. Hazelton, Martin L., 2003. "Some comments on origin-destination matrix estimation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 811-822, December.
    21. Chen, Anthony & Zhou, Zhong, 2010. "The [alpha]-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium model with stochastic travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 493-513, May.
    22. Lo, H. P. & Zhang, N. & Lam, W. H. K., 1996. "Estimation of an origin-destination matrix with random link choice proportions: A statistical approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 309-324, August.
    23. Nie, Yu & Zhang, H.M. & Recker, W.W., 2005. "Inferring origin-destination trip matrices with a decoupled GLS path flow estimator," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 497-518, July.
    24. Yang, Yudi & Fan, Yueyue, 2015. "Data dependent input control for origin–destination demand estimation using observability analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 385-403.
    25. Yang, Hai & Sasaki, Tsuna & Iida, Yasunori & Asakura, Yasuo, 1992. "Estimation of origin-destination matrices from link traffic counts on congested networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 417-434, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chao Sun & Yulin Chang & Xin Luan & Qiang Tu & Wenyun Tang, 2020. "Origin-Destination Demand Reconstruction Using Observed Travel Time under Congested Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 733-755, September.
    2. Fu, Hao & Lam, William H.K. & Shao, Hu & Ma, Wei & Chen, Bi Yu & Ho, H.W., 2022. "Optimization of multi-type sensor locations for simultaneous estimation of origin-destination demands and link travel times with covariance effects," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 19-47.
    3. Sun, Ran & Fan, Yueyue, 2024. "Stochastic OD demand estimation using stochastic programming," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Yudi & Fan, Yueyue, 2015. "Data dependent input control for origin–destination demand estimation using observability analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 385-403.
    2. Yang, Yudi & Fan, Yueyue & Wets, Roger J.B., 2018. "Stochastic travel demand estimation: Improving network identifiability using multi-day observation sets," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 192-211.
    3. Shao, Hu & Lam, William H.K. & Sumalee, Agachai & Chen, Anthony & Hazelton, Martin L., 2014. "Estimation of mean and covariance of peak hour origin–destination demands from day-to-day traffic counts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 52-75.
    4. Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira-Neto & Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro & Luis Eduardo Carvalho, 2020. "A Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Model for the Estimation of day-to-day Origin-destination Flows in Transportation Networks," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 499-527, June.
    5. Tao Li, 2017. "A Demand Estimator Based on a Nested Logit Model," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 918-930, August.
    6. Blume, Steffen O.P. & Corman, Francesco & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2022. "Bayesian origin-destination estimation in networked transit systems using nodal in- and outflow counts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 60-94.
    7. Fu, Hao & Lam, William H.K. & Shao, Hu & Ma, Wei & Chen, Bi Yu & Ho, H.W., 2022. "Optimization of multi-type sensor locations for simultaneous estimation of origin-destination demands and link travel times with covariance effects," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 19-47.
    8. Xie, Chi & Kockelman, Kara M. & Waller, S. Travis, 2011. "A maximum entropy-least squares estimator for elastic origin–destination trip matrix estimation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1465-1482.
    9. S. Travis Waller & Sai Chand & Aleksa Zlojutro & Divya Nair & Chence Niu & Jason Wang & Xiang Zhang & Vinayak V. Dixit, 2021. "Rapidex: A Novel Tool to Estimate Origin–Destination Trips Using Pervasive Traffic Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-27, October.
    10. Louis Grange & Felipe González & Shlomo Bekhor, 2017. "Path Flow and Trip Matrix Estimation Using Link Flow Density," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 173-195, March.
    11. Lo, Hing-Po & Chan, Chi-Pak, 2003. "Simultaneous estimation of an origin-destination matrix and link choice proportions using traffic counts," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 771-788, November.
    12. Maryam Abareshi & Mehdi Zaferanieh & Bagher Keramati, 2017. "Path Flow Estimator in an Entropy Model Using a Nonlinear L-Shaped Algorithm," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 293-315, March.
    13. Menon, Aditya Krishna & Cai, Chen & Wang, Weihong & Wen, Tao & Chen, Fang, 2015. "Fine-grained OD estimation with automated zoning and sparsity regularisation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 150-172.
    14. Doblas, Javier & Benitez, Francisco G., 2005. "An approach to estimating and updating origin-destination matrices based upon traffic counts preserving the prior structure of a survey matrix," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 565-591, August.
    15. Z. Wu & W. Lam, 2006. "Transit passenger origin-destination estimation in congested transit networks with elastic line frequencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 363-378, April.
    16. Gunnar Flötteröd & Michel Bierlaire & Kai Nagel, 2011. "Bayesian Demand Calibration for Dynamic Traffic Simulations," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(4), pages 541-561, November.
    17. Hazelton, Martin L., 2010. "Bayesian inference for network-based models with a linear inverse structure," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 674-685, June.
    18. Lundgren, Jan T. & Peterson, Anders, 2008. "A heuristic for the bilevel origin-destination-matrix estimation problem," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 339-354, May.
    19. Hai Yang & Qiang Meng & Michael G. H. Bell, 2001. "Simultaneous Estimation of the Origin-Destination Matrices and Travel-Cost Coefficient for Congested Networks in a Stochastic User Equilibrium," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(2), pages 107-123, May.
    20. Abdullah Alshehri & Mahmoud Owais & Jayadev Gyani & Mishal H. Aljarbou & Saleh Alsulamy, 2023. "Residual Neural Networks for Origin–Destination Trip Matrix Estimation from Traffic Sensor Information," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:122:y:2019:i:c:p:265-286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.