IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v99y2017icp125-146.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions performance of the future Australian light vehicle traffic fleet

Author

Listed:
  • Iankov, Ivan
  • Taylor, Michael A.P.
  • Scrafton, Derek

Abstract

Knowledge of real-world greenhouse gas emission rates for traffic is necessary for forecasting transport greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents greenhouse gas emission rates that assist forecasting and modelling greenhouse gas emissions from light vehicles, i.e. private passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles under realistic traffic conditions. It develops confidence intervals for market shares by categories for fuel or energy efficiency on the Australian market for new light vehicles for the period 2016–2030. The model estimates realistic market scenarios by simulating likely variations of capital and running costs of alternatives for car buyers and by considering buyers’ willingness-to-pay for fuel/energy efficiency. The results suggest that market forces will be insufficient to promote battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Australia. On average the widths of the 95% confidence intervals for greenhouse emission rates are about 10–15% of the magnitudes of the emission rates, so that analysts can forecast transport greenhouse gas emissions with a reasonable level of certainty. The study suggests that policy interventions to accelerate the uptake of low or zero emitting vehicles may be required.

Suggested Citation

  • Iankov, Ivan & Taylor, Michael A.P. & Scrafton, Derek, 2017. "Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions performance of the future Australian light vehicle traffic fleet," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 125-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:99:y:2017:i:c:p:125-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.03.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856416306814
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2017.03.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hidrue, Michael K. & Parsons, George R. & Kempton, Willett & Gardner, Meryl P., 2011. "Willingness to pay for electric vehicles and their attributes," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 686-705, September.
    2. Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye & Liu, Huan & Huang, Ruikun & Un, Puikei & Zhou, Yu & Fu, Lixin & Hao, Jiming, 2014. "Real-world fuel consumption and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions by driving conditions for light-duty passenger vehicles in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 247-257.
    3. Meghan R. Busse & Christopher R. Knittel & Florian Zettelmeyer, 2013. "Are Consumers Myopic? Evidence from New and Used Car Purchases," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 220-256, February.
    4. Liu, Yizao, 2014. "Household demand and willingness to pay for hybrid vehicles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 191-197.
    5. Hammond, Geoffrey P. & Hazeldine, Tom, 2015. "Indicative energy technology assessment of advanced rechargeable batteries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 559-571.
    6. Seo, Youngguk & Kim, Seong-Min, 2013. "Estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from road traffic: A case study in Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 777-787.
    7. Nayum, Alim & Klöckner, Christian A. & Prugsamatz, Sunita, 2013. "Influences of car type class and carbon dioxide emission levels on purchases of new cars: A retrospective analysis of car purchases in Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 96-108.
    8. Greene, David L., 2011. "Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 608-616, July.
    9. Turrentine, Thomas S. & Kurani, Kenneth S., 2007. "Car buyers and fuel economy?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1213-1223, February.
    10. Hoen, Anco & Koetse, Mark J., 2014. "A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 199-215.
    11. Beck, Matthew J. & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2013. "Environmental attitudes and emissions charging: An example of policy implications for vehicle choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 171-182.
    12. Turrentine, Tom & Kurani, Kenneth S, 2007. "Car buyers and fuel economy?," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt56x845v4, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    13. Eom, Jiyong & Schipper, Lee, 2010. "Trends in passenger transport energy use in South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3598-3607, July.
    14. Andress, David & Das, Sujit & Joseck, Fred & Dean Nguyen, T., 2012. "Status of advanced light-duty transportation technologies in the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 348-364.
    15. Zhang, Shaojun & Wu, Ye & Un, Puikei & Fu, Lixin & Hao, Jiming, 2016. "Modeling real-world fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions with high resolution for light-duty passenger vehicles in a traffic populated city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 461-471.
    16. Greene, David L. & Evans, David H. & Hiestand, John, 2013. "Survey evidence on the willingness of U.S. consumers to pay for automotive fuel economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1539-1550.
    17. Baltas, George & Saridakis, Charalampos, 2013. "An empirical investigation of the impact of behavioural and psychographic consumer characteristics on car preferences: An integrated model of car type choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 92-110.
    18. Piecyk, Maja I. & McKinnon, Alan C., 2010. "Forecasting the carbon footprint of road freight transport in 2020," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 31-42, November.
    19. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ying Huang & Liujingtai Pan & Yifei He & Zheqing Xie & Xiufang Zheng, 2022. "A BIM–WMS Management Tool for the Reverse Logistics Supply Chain of Demolition Waste," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Stanley, John & Ellison, Richard & Loader, Chris & Hensher, David, 2018. "Reducing Australian motor vehicle greenhouse gas emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 76-88.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leard, Benjamin, 2018. "Consumer inattention and the demand for vehicle fuel cost savings," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Greene, David L. & Welch, Jilleah G., 2018. "Impacts of fuel economy improvements on the distribution of income in the U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 528-541.
    3. Zirogiannis, Nikolaos & Duncan, Denvil & Carley, Sanya & Siddiki, Saba & Graham, John D., 2019. "The effect of CAFE standards on vehicle sales projections: A Total Cost of Ownership approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-87.
    4. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2018. "Combined Vehicle Type and Fuel Type Choices of Private Households: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 17/2018, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised May 2019.
    5. Xie, Fei & Lin, Zhenhong, 2017. "Market-driven automotive industry compliance with fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards: Analysis based on consumer choice," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 299-311.
    6. Greene, David L. & Greenwald, Judith M. & Ciez, Rebecca E., 2020. "U.S. fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards: What have they achieved and what have we learned?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "Willingness-to-pay for alternative fuel vehicle characteristics: A stated choice study for Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 89-111.
    8. Laura Abrardi, 2019. "Behavioral barriers and the energy efficiency gap: a survey of the literature," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 46(1), pages 25-43, March.
    9. James M. Sallee, 2014. "Rational Inattention and Energy Efficiency," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(3), pages 781-820.
    10. Bansal, Prateek & Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Raj, Alok & Dubey, Subodh & Graham, Daniel J., 2021. "Willingness to pay and attitudinal preferences of Indian consumers for electric vehicles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. Greene, David L. & Sims, Charles B. & Muratori, Matteo, 2020. "Two trillion gallons: Fuel savings from fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles, 1975–2018," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Verena Gruber & Ingrid Peignier & Charlotte Dubuc & Yann-Édouard Cayard & Elinora Pentcheva, 2021. "Analyse des motivations d’achat de camions légers au Canada," CIRANO Project Reports 2021rp-06, CIRANO.
    13. Eunsung Kim & Eunnyeong Heo, 2019. "Key Drivers behind the Adoption of Electric Vehicle in Korea: An Analysis of the Revealed Preferences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Klemick, Heather & Kopits, Elizabeth & Wolverton, Ann & Sargent, Keith, 2015. "Heavy-duty trucking and the energy efficiency paradox: Evidence from focus groups and interviews," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 154-166.
    15. Todd D. Gerarden & Richard G. Newell & Robert N. Stavins, 2017. "Assessing the Energy-Efficiency Gap," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1486-1525, December.
    16. Berliner, Rosaria, 2018. "Drivers of Change in a World of Mobility Disruption: An Overview of Long Distance Travel, Shared Mobility, and Automated Vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6r64v86z, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    17. Larson, Paul D. & Viáfara, Jairo & Parsons, Robert V. & Elias, Arne, 2014. "Consumer attitudes about electric cars: Pricing analysis and policy implications," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 299-314.
    18. Alexandros Dimitropoulos, 2014. "The Influence of Environmental Concerns on Drivers’ Preferences for Electric Cars," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-128/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Huang, Shisheng & Safiullah, Hameed & Xiao, Jingjie & Hodge, Bri-Mathias S. & Hoffman, Ray & Soller, Joan & Jones, Doug & Dininger, Dennis & Tyner, Wallace E. & Liu, Andrew & Pekny, Joseph F., 2012. "The effects of electric vehicles on residential households in the city of Indianapolis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 442-455.
    20. Hasan-Basri, Bakti & Mohd Mustafa, Muzafarshah & Bakar, Normizan, 2019. "Are Malaysian Consumers Willing to Pay for Hybrid Cars’ Attributes?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(1), pages 121-134.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:99:y:2017:i:c:p:125-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.