IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v108y2017icp299-311.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market-driven automotive industry compliance with fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards: Analysis based on consumer choice

Author

Listed:
  • Xie, Fei
  • Lin, Zhenhong

Abstract

This study explored factors that affect market-driven compliance with both Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and greenhouse gas (GHG) standards (together called the National Program) in the United States for phase I 2012–2016 and phase II 2017–2025. We considered a consumer-choice-based simulation approach, using the MA3T model, to estimate the market acceptance of fuel efficiency (FE) technologies and alternative fuel technologies as reflected by new sales of light-duty vehicle (LDV). Because both full and extremely low FE valuations are common in the literature, we use a moderate assumption of a 10-year perceived vehicle lifetime at a 7% annual discount rate in the baseline and include both extreme views (5 years and 15 years) in the sensitivity analysis. The study focuses on market-driven compliance and therefore excludes manufacturers’ cross-subsidization. The model results suggest that the LDV industry is able to comply with both standards even without cross-subsidization and with projected high technology cost, mainly thanks to the multiple credit programs and technology advancements. The compliance robustness, while encouraging, however is based on moderate market assumptions, such as Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference oil price projection and moderate FE consumer valuation. Sensitivity analysis results reveal two significant risk factors for compliance: low oil prices and consumers’ FE undervaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Fei & Lin, Zhenhong, 2017. "Market-driven automotive industry compliance with fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards: Analysis based on consumer choice," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 299-311.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:299-311
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.05.060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517303518
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.05.060?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meghan R. Busse & Christopher R. Knittel & Florian Zettelmeyer, 2013. "Are Consumers Myopic? Evidence from New and Used Car Purchases," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 220-256, February.
    2. Sallee, James M. & West, Sarah E. & Fan, Wei, 2016. "Do consumers recognize the value of fuel economy? Evidence from used car prices and gasoline price fluctuations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 61-73.
    3. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data. Part I: Model structure and validation," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S4/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    4. Changzheng Liu and David L. Greene, 2014. "Vehicle Manufacturer Technology Adoption and Pricing Strategies under Fuel Economy/Emissions Standards and Feebates," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    5. Axsen, Jonn & Mountain, Dean C. & Jaccard, Mark, 2009. "Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt02n9j6cv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    6. Turrentine, Thomas S. & Kurani, Kenneth S., 2007. "Car buyers and fuel economy?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1213-1223, February.
    7. Axsen, Jonn & Mountain, Dean C. & Jaccard, Mark, 2009. "Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 221-238, August.
    8. Turrentine, Tom & Kurani, Kenneth S, 2007. "Car buyers and fuel economy?," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt56x845v4, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    9. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data — Part I: Model structure and validation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 411-421.
    10. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data: German market and policy options," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S12/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    11. Greene, David L. & Evans, David H. & Hiestand, John, 2013. "Survey evidence on the willingness of U.S. consumers to pay for automotive fuel economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1539-1550.
    12. Rubin, Jonathan & Leiby, Paul N. & Greene, David L., 2009. "Tradable fuel economy credits: Competition and oligopoly," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 315-328, November.
    13. Zhenhong Lin, 2014. "Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 635-650, November.
    14. Mau, Paulus & Eyzaguirre, Jimena & Jaccard, Mark & Collins-Dodd, Colleen & Tiedemann, Kenneth, 2008. "The 'neighbor effect': Simulating dynamics in consumer preferences for new vehicle technologies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 504-516, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bhardwaj, Chandan & Axsen, Jonn & McCollum, David, 2022. "Which “second-best” climate policies are best? Simulating cost-effective policy mixes for passenger vehicles," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Zirogiannis, Nikolaos & Duncan, Denvil & Carley, Sanya & Siddiki, Saba & Graham, John D., 2019. "The effect of CAFE standards on vehicle sales projections: A Total Cost of Ownership approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-87.
    3. Doremus, Jacqueline & Helfand, Gloria & Liu, Changzheng & Donahue, Marie & Kahan, Ari & Shelby, Michael, 2019. "Simpler is better: Predicting consumer vehicle purchases in the short run," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1404-1415.
    4. Burke, Andrew & Zhao, Jingyuan & Miller, Marshall & Fulton, Lewis, 2023. "Vehicle Choice Modeling for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicles in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7437p058, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Ou, Shiqi & Hao, Xu & Lin, Zhenhong & Wang, Hewu & Bouchard, Jessey & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven & Wu, Zhixin & Zheng, Jihu & Lv, Renzhi & Qi, Liang & LaClair, Tim J., 2019. "Light-duty plug-in electric vehicles in China: An overview on the market and its comparisons to the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 747-761.
    6. Sheldon, Tamara L. & Dua, Rubal, 2019. "Measuring the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicle subsidies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Ou, Shiqi & Lin, Zhenhong & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven, 2018. "Estimation of vehicle home parking availability in China and quantification of its potential impacts on plug-in electric vehicle ownership cost," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 107-117.
    8. Taolei Guo & Junjie Chen & Pei Liu, 2022. "Impact of Emerging Transport Technologies on Freight Economic and Environmental Performance: A System Dynamics View," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-17, November.
    9. Yip, Arthur H.C. & Michalek, Jeremy J. & Whitefoot, Kate S., 2018. "On the implications of using composite vehicles in choice model prediction," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 163-188.
    10. Xie, Fei & Liu, Nawei & Jin, Mingzhou & Lin, Zhenhong, 2019. "Impacts of the consumer heterogeneity in fuel economy valuation on compliance with fuel economy standards," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 167-174.
    11. Kinnon, Michael Mac & Zhu, Shupeng & Carreras-Sospedra, Marc & Soukup, James V. & Dabdub, Donald & Samuelsen, G.S. & Brouwer, Jacob, 2019. "Considering future regional air quality impacts of the transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 63-80.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Greene, David L. & Welch, Jilleah G., 2018. "Impacts of fuel economy improvements on the distribution of income in the U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 528-541.
    2. Long, Zoe & Kormos, Christine & Sussman, Reuven & Axsen, Jonn, 2021. "MPG, fuel costs, or savings? Exploring the role of information framing in consumer valuation of fuel economy using a choice experiment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 109-127.
    3. Sykes, Maxwell & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "No free ride to zero-emissions: Simulating a region's need to implement its own zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate to achieve 2050 GHG targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 447-460.
    4. Greene, David L. & Greenwald, Judith M. & Ciez, Rebecca E., 2020. "U.S. fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards: What have they achieved and what have we learned?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Sun, Shanxia & Delgado, Michael & Khanna, Neha, 2017. "Hybrid Vehicles and Household Driving Behavior: Implications for Miles Traveled and Gasoline Consumption," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258502, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Todd D. Gerarden & Richard G. Newell & Robert N. Stavins, 2017. "Assessing the Energy-Efficiency Gap," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1486-1525, December.
    7. Zirogiannis, Nikolaos & Duncan, Denvil & Carley, Sanya & Siddiki, Saba & Graham, John D., 2019. "The effect of CAFE standards on vehicle sales projections: A Total Cost of Ownership approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-87.
    8. Greene, David L. & Sims, Charles B. & Muratori, Matteo, 2020. "Two trillion gallons: Fuel savings from fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles, 1975–2018," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    9. Axsen, Jonn, 2010. "Interpersonal Influence within Car Buyers’ Social Networks: Observing Consumer Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and the Spread of Pro-Societal Values," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt8p32d18k, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    10. Wolinetz, Michael & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "How policy can build the plug-in electric vehicle market: Insights from the REspondent-based Preference And Constraints (REPAC) model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 238-250.
    11. Leard, Benjamin, 2018. "Consumer inattention and the demand for vehicle fuel cost savings," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Sun, Shanxia & Delgado, Michael S. & Khanna, Neha, 2019. "Hybrid vehicles, social signals and household driving: Implications for miles traveled and gasoline consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Plötz, Patrick & Schneider, Uta & Globisch, Joachim & Dütschke, Elisabeth, 2014. "Who will buy electric vehicles? Identifying early adopters in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 96-109.
    14. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "Willingness-to-pay for alternative fuel vehicle characteristics: A stated choice study for Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 89-111.
    15. Iankov, Ivan & Taylor, Michael A.P. & Scrafton, Derek, 2017. "Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions performance of the future Australian light vehicle traffic fleet," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 125-146.
    16. Alberini, Anna & Di Cosmo, Valeria & Bigano, Andrea, 2019. "How are fuel efficient cars priced? Evidence from eight EU countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Xiong, Siqin & Yuan, Yi & Yao, Jia & Bai, Bo & Ma, Xiaoming, 2023. "Exploring consumer preferences for electric vehicles based on the random coefficient logit model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    18. Bansal, Prateek & Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Raj, Alok & Dubey, Subodh & Graham, Daniel J., 2021. "Willingness to pay and attitudinal preferences of Indian consumers for electric vehicles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    19. Helveston, John Paul & Liu, Yimin & Feit, Elea McDonnell & Fuchs, Erica & Klampfl, Erica & Michalek, Jeremy J., 2015. "Will subsidies drive electric vehicle adoption? Measuring consumer preferences in the U.S. and China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 96-112.
    20. Massimo Filippini & Nilkanth Kumar & Suchita Srinivasan, 2021. "Behavioral Anomalies and Fuel Efficiency: Evidence from Motorcycles in Nepal," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/353, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:299-311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.