IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v91y2016icp80-104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Influence of composition, amount and life span of passenger cars on end-of-life vehicles waste in Belgium: A system dynamics approach

Author

Listed:
  • Inghels, Dirk
  • Dullaert, Wout
  • Raa, Birger
  • Walther, Grit

Abstract

The increasing worldwide production of passenger cars depletes natural resources and increases the number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) to be processed. Lack of landfill capacity and a growing scarcity of natural resources have lead to severe ELV reuse and recovery targets in the European Union (EU). This paper examines the main influencing parameters affecting the amount and composition of ELV waste originating from passenger cars to be treated in Authorized Treatment Facilities (ATFs). Moreover the effect of a changing number, composition and life span of passenger cars on the ability to meet the ambitious EU ELV Directive 2000/53/EC targets in 2015 is examined for Belgium. Using system dynamics, the aforementioned changing parameters are studied from 1990 and projected to 2030. The model results show that the total annual weight of ELV waste to be reused and recycled in Belgium is expected to grow over the coming years despite the economic downturn of 2008 and its effect on GDP growth. Moreover it shows that Belgium can sustainably achieve the ambitious EU ELV Directive 2000/53/EC targets in 2015 and thereafter if it continues to invest in waste treatment of ELV plastics. The availability of higher amounts of ELV plastics proves to be favourable to trigger investments in their reusing and recycling. We demonstrate that this can be realized by reducing export of discarded passenger cars, shortening the life span of passenger cars or shortening the time for investing in additional plastic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Inghels, Dirk & Dullaert, Wout & Raa, Birger & Walther, Grit, 2016. "Influence of composition, amount and life span of passenger cars on end-of-life vehicles waste in Belgium: A system dynamics approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 80-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:91:y:2016:i:c:p:80-104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.06.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856416305079
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2016.06.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhat, Chandra R. & Sen, Sudeshna, 2006. "Household vehicle type holdings and usage: an application of the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-53, January.
    2. Gakenheimer, Ralph, 1999. "Urban mobility in the developing world," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(7-8), pages 671-689.
    3. Alan Greenspan & Darrel Cohen, 1999. "Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, And Sales," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 369-383, August.
    4. Kenneth B. Medlock & Ronald Soligo, 2002. "Car Ownership and Economic Development with Forecasts to the Year 2015," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 163-188, May.
    5. Zorpas, Antonis A. & Inglezakis, Vassilis J., 2012. "Automotive industry challenges in meeting EU 2015 environmental standard," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 55-83.
    6. Boulanger, Paul-Marie & Brechet, Thierry, 2005. "Models for policy-making in sustainable development: The state of the art and perspectives for research," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 337-350, November.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    8. Rogelio Oliva & John D. Sterman, 2001. "Cutting Corners and Working Overtime: Quality Erosion in the Service Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(7), pages 894-914, July.
    9. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    10. Candice Stevens, 2010. "Linking sustainable consumption and production: The government role," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 16-23, February.
    11. Anthony Halog & Yosef Manik, 2011. "Advancing Integrated Systems Modelling Framework for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-31, February.
    12. Poudenx, Pascal, 2008. "The effect of transportation policies on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission from urban passenger transportation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 901-909, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. T. V. Krishna Mohan & R. K. Amit, 2020. "Dismantlers’ dilemma in end-of-life vehicle recycling markets: a system dynamics model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 290(1), pages 591-619, July.
    2. Vuk Petronijević & Aleksandar Đorđević & Miladin Stefanović & Slavko Arsovski & Zdravko Krivokapić & Milan Mišić, 2020. "Energy Recovery through End-of-Life Vehicles Recycling in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-26, October.
    3. Sitinjak, Charli & Simic, Vladimir & Ismail, Rozmi & Musselwhite, Charles & Bacanin, Nebojsa, 2024. "Psychometric components of the social acceptance toward end-of-life vehicles policy: A case study of Indonesia," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 206-218.
    4. Rešetar, Marko & Pejić, Goran & Lulić, Zoran, 2018. "Changes and trends in the Croatian road vehicle fleet – Need for change of policy measures," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 92-105.
    5. Hasani Mohd Ali & Vladimir Simic & Charli Sitinjak & Jady Zaidi Hassim & Muhamad Helmi Md Said & Rasyikah Md Khalid & Grace Emmanuel Kaka & Rozmi Ismail, 2023. "Exploring Public Perceptions and Disposal Procedures in the Development of a Comprehensive End-of-Life Vehicle Regulation in Malaysia: A Pilot Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Ziyad Tariq Abdullah, 2021. "Remanufacturing end-of-life passenger car waste sheet steel into mesh sheet: A sustainability assessment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-18, October.
    7. Jianjun Dong & Yuanxian Xu & Bon-gang Hwang & Rui Ren & Zhilong Chen, 2019. "The Impact of Underground Logistics System on Urban Sustainable Development: A System Dynamics Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2018. "The Automobilization Process and Its Determining Factors in the Past, Present, and Future," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 406-414, July.
    2. S. R. Milyakin, 2023. "Motorization: History, Factors and Patterns," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 254-262, April.
    3. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2020. "The Influence of the Spread of Automatic Control and Sharing Technologies on Motorization Processes: Concept, Calculation Scheme, Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 254-263, May.
    4. Souche, Stéphanie, 2010. "Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 127-134, May.
    5. Ali, Azam & Kalatian, Arash & Choudhury, Charisma F., 2023. "Comparing and contrasting choice model and machine learning techniques in the context of vehicle ownership decisions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Homolka, Lubor & Ngo, Vu Minh & Pavelková, Drahomíra & Le, Bach Tuan & Dehning, Bruce, 2020. "Short- and medium-term car registration forecasting based on selected macro and socio-economic indicators in European countries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Meiling He & Tianhe Lin & Xiaohui Wu & Jianqiang Luo & Yongtao Peng, 2020. "A Systematic Literature Review of Reverse Logistics of End-of-Life Vehicles: Bibliometric Analysis and Research Trend," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-22, October.
    8. Li, Jun, 2011. "Decoupling urban transport from GHG emissions in Indian cities--A critical review and perspectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3503-3514, June.
    9. Strand, Jon, 2013. "Political economy aspects of fuel subsidies : a conceptual framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6392, The World Bank.
    10. Sa'ad, Suleiman, 2010. "Improved technical efficiency and exogenous factors in transportation demand for energy: An application of structural time series analysis to South Korean data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2745-2751.
    11. Hernández-Moreno, Adolfo & Mugica-Álvarez, Violeta, 2013. "Vehicular fleets forecasting to project pollutant emissions: Mexico city metropolitan area case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 189-199.
    12. Kemal Çelik & Erkan Oktay & Muhsin Doğan Ebül & Ömer Özhancı, 2015. "Factors influencing consumers’ light commercial vehicle purchase intention in a developing country," Management & Marketing, Sciendo, vol. 10(2), pages 148-162, September.
    13. Bastani, Parisa & Heywood, John B. & Hope, Chris, 2012. "The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 517-548.
    14. Juan Laborda & María José Moral, 2020. "Automotive Aftermarket Forecast in a Changing World: The Stakeholders’ Perceptions Boost!," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    15. Loder, Allister & Tanner, Reto & Axhausen, Kay W., 2017. "The impact of local work and residential balance on vehicle miles traveled: A new direct approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 139-149.
    16. Catherine Wolfram & Orie Shelef & Paul Gertler, 2012. "How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 119-138, Winter.
    17. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    18. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    19. Alessandra Canepa & Fawaz Khaled, 2018. "Housing, Housing Finance and Credit Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, May.
    20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:91:y:2016:i:c:p:80-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.