IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v27y2013icp189-199.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Vehicular fleets forecasting to project pollutant emissions: Mexico city metropolitan area case

Author

Listed:
  • Hernández-Moreno, Adolfo
  • Mugica-Álvarez, Violeta

Abstract

Vehicular fleet forecasting has a strategic value for governmental planning management and assessment, for economic policies and environmental programs, but particularly to estimate future emission inventories and fuel demand projections. In order to determine the forecasts of detailed vehicular fleets, those comprise the overall car stock and their associated pollutant emissions and fuel demand, specific curves of retirement models were used in addition to econometric analysis. To obtain forecasts for the year 2015, this methodology was applied to the Mexico City Metropolitan Area case using data since 1990. The validation of the models applied was done through economic data from 2004, 2006 and 2008. The results of the forecasts carried out displayed high confidence levels, above 95% for the medium term. The exercise with the forecasted fleets produced an expected increase of around 21% of criteria pollutants and 31% in greenhouse gases emissions due to vehicular activity, from 2007 to 2015. Further, an increase in fuel demand of around 22.9% gasoline and 27.1% diesel in the same period was estimated, which are lower than those officially projected. Finally, a specific coefficient β to the Gompertz equation applied to Mexico City case was obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández-Moreno, Adolfo & Mugica-Álvarez, Violeta, 2013. "Vehicular fleets forecasting to project pollutant emissions: Mexico city metropolitan area case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 189-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:189-199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.01.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X13000139
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.01.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth B. Medlock & Ronald Soligo, 2002. "Car Ownership and Economic Development with Forecasts to the Year 2015," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 163-188, May.
    2. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2020. "The Influence of the Spread of Automatic Control and Sharing Technologies on Motorization Processes: Concept, Calculation Scheme, Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 254-263, May.
    2. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2018. "The Automobilization Process and Its Determining Factors in the Past, Present, and Future," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 406-414, July.
    3. Strand, Jon, 2013. "Political economy aspects of fuel subsidies : a conceptual framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6392, The World Bank.
    4. Sa'ad, Suleiman, 2010. "Improved technical efficiency and exogenous factors in transportation demand for energy: An application of structural time series analysis to South Korean data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2745-2751.
    5. Inghels, Dirk & Dullaert, Wout & Raa, Birger & Walther, Grit, 2016. "Influence of composition, amount and life span of passenger cars on end-of-life vehicles waste in Belgium: A system dynamics approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 80-104.
    6. Qodri Febrilian Erahman & Nadhilah Reyseliani & Widodo Wahyu Purwanto & Mahmud Sudibandriyo, 2019. "Modeling Future Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in Indonesia at the Provincial Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-25, August.
    7. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2014. "It's the economy, stupid: increasing fuel price is enough to explain Peak Car in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    8. Wang, Rui & Yuan, Quan, 2013. "Parking practices and policies under rapid motorization: The case of China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 109-116.
    9. Wadud, Zia, 2020. "The effects of e-ridehailing on motorcycle ownership in an emerging-country megacity," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 301-312.
    10. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2012. "Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-277.
    11. Masato Abe, 2011. "Achieving a sustainable automotive sector in Asia and the Pacific: Challenges and opportunities for the reduction of vehicle CO2 emissions," Working Papers 10811, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
    12. Paul J. Gertler & Orie Shelef & Catherine D. Wolfram & Alan Fuchs, 2016. "The Demand for Energy-Using Assets among the World's Rising Middle Classes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1366-1401, June.
    13. Seum, Stefan & Schulz, Angelika & Kuhnimhof, Tobias, 2020. "The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Kudłak, Robert & Kisiała, Wojciech & Kołsut, Bartłomiej, 2024. "Systemic transformation, political reforms and car ownership in Poland," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Yang, Hongtai & Zhai, Guocong & Liu, Xiaohan & Yang, Linchuan & Liu, Yugang & Yuan, Quan, 2022. "Determinants of city-level private car ownership: Effect of vehicle regulation policies and the relative price," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 40-48.
    16. Elbaum Jean-David, 2021. "The effect of a carbon tax on per capita carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from Finland," IRENE Working Papers 21-05, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    17. Groote, Jesper De & Ommeren, Jos Van & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Car ownership and residential parking subsidies: Evidence from Amsterdam," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 25-37.
    18. Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    19. Al-Ayyash, Zahwa & Abou-Zeid, Maya & Kaysi, Isam, 2016. "Modeling the demand for a shared-ride taxi service: An application to an organization-based context," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 169-182.
    20. Amoh-Gyimah, Richard & Aidoo, Eric Nimako, 2013. "Mode of transport to work by government employees in the Kumasi metropolis, Ghana," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 35-43.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:189-199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.