IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i16p3168-d258625.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Future Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in Indonesia at the Provincial Level

Author

Listed:
  • Qodri Febrilian Erahman

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia)

  • Nadhilah Reyseliani

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia)

  • Widodo Wahyu Purwanto

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia)

  • Mahmud Sudibandriyo

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia)

Abstract

The high energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the road transport sector in Indonesia are mainly caused by the use of passenger cars. This situation is predicted to continue due to the increase in car ownership. Scenarios are arranged to examine the potential reductions in energy demand and CO 2 emissions in comparison with the business as usual (BAU) condition between 2016 and 2050 by controlling car intensity (fuel economy) and activity (vehicle-km). The intensity is controlled through the introduction of new car technologies, while the activity is controlled through the enactment of fuel taxes. This study aims to analyze the energy demand and CO 2 emissions of passenger cars in Indonesia not only for a period in the past (2010–2015) but also based on projections through to 2050, by employing a provincially disaggregated bottom-up model. The provincially disaggregated model shows more accurate estimations for passenger car energy demands. The results suggest that energy demand and CO 2 emissions in 2050 will be 50 million liter gasoline equivalent (LGE) and 110 million tons of CO 2 , respectively. The five provinces with the highest CO 2 emissions in 2050 are projected to be West Java, Banten, East Java, Central Java, and South Sulawesi. The projected analysis for 2050 shows that new car technology and fuel tax scenarios can reduce energy demand from the BAU condition by 7.72% and 3.18% and CO 2 emissions by 15.96% and 3.18%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Qodri Febrilian Erahman & Nadhilah Reyseliani & Widodo Wahyu Purwanto & Mahmud Sudibandriyo, 2019. "Modeling Future Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in Indonesia at the Provincial Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:16:p:3168-:d:258625
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/16/3168/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/16/3168/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1997. "Vehicle ownership to 2015: Implications for energy use and emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1121-1127, December.
    2. Lu, I.J. & Lewis, Charles & Lin, Sue J., 2009. "The forecast of motor vehicle, energy demand and CO2 emission from Taiwan's road transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2952-2961, August.
    3. Cheah, Lynette & Heywood, John, 2011. "Meeting U.S. passenger vehicle fuel economy standards in 2016 and beyond," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 454-466, January.
    4. Deendarlianto, & Widyaparaga, Adhika & Sopha, Bertha Maya & Budiman, Arief & Muthohar, Imam & Setiawan, Indra Chandra & Lindasista, Alia & Soemardjito, Joewono & Oka, Kazutaka, 2017. "Scenarios analysis of energy mix for road transportation sector in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 13-23.
    5. Tian Wu & Hongmei Zhao & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Baptista, Patrícia C. & Silva, Carla M. & Farias, Tiago L. & Heywood, John B., 2012. "Energy and environmental impacts of alternative pathways for the Portuguese road transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 802-815.
    7. Ko, Ahyun & Myung, Cha-Lee & Park, Simsoo & Kwon, Sangil, 2014. "Scenario-based CO2 emissions reduction potential and energy use in Republic of Korea’s passenger vehicle fleet," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 346-356.
    8. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    9. Zhang, Ming & Mu, Hailin & Li, Gang & Ning, Yadong, 2009. "Forecasting the transport energy demand based on PLSR method in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1396-1400.
    10. Eom, Jiyong & Schipper, Lee, 2010. "Trends in passenger transport energy use in South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3598-3607, July.
    11. Erahman, Qodri Febrilian & Purwanto, Widodo Wahyu & Sudibandriyo, Mahmud & Hidayatno, Akhmad, 2016. "An assessment of Indonesia's energy security index and comparison with seventy countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 364-376.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bertha Maya Sopha & Athaya Islami Triasari & Lynette Cheah, 2021. "Sustainable Humanitarian Operations: Multi-Method Simulation for Large-Scale Evacuation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-19, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keshavarzian, Maryam & Kamali Anaraki, Sara & Zamani, Mehrzad & Erfanifard, Ali, 2012. "Projections of oil demand in road transportation sector on the basis of vehicle ownership projections, worldwide: 1972–2020," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1979-1985.
    2. Poumanyvong, Phetkeo & Kaneko, Shinji & Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2012. "Impacts of urbanization on national transport and road energy use: Evidence from low, middle and high income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 268-277.
    3. Laureti, Tiziana & Montero, José-María & Fernández-Avilés, Gema, 2014. "A local scale analysis on influencing factors of NOx emissions: Evidence from the Community of Madrid, Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 557-568.
    4. Deendarlianto, & Widyaparaga, Adhika & Widodo, Tri & Handika, Irine & Chandra Setiawan, Indra & Lindasista, Alia, 2020. "Modelling of Indonesian road transport energy sector in order to fulfill the national energy and oil reduction targets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 504-518.
    5. Lin Ma & Manhua Wu & Xiujuan Tian & Guanheng Zheng & Qinchuan Du & Tian Wu, 2019. "China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-26, July.
    6. Zeng, Yuan & Tan, Xianchun & Gu, Baihe & Wang, Yi & Xu, Baoguang, 2016. "Greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles in Chinese cities and the implication for China’s mitigation targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1016-1025.
    7. Ziru Feng & Tian Cai & Kangli Xiang & Chenxi Xiang & Lei Hou, 2019. "Evaluating the Impact of Fossil Fuel Vehicle Exit on the Oil Demand in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-18, July.
    8. Yang, Hongtai & Zhai, Guocong & Liu, Xiaohan & Yang, Linchuan & Liu, Yugang & Yuan, Quan, 2022. "Determinants of city-level private car ownership: Effect of vehicle regulation policies and the relative price," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 40-48.
    9. Frances Ifeoma Ukonze & Maxwell Umunna Nwachukwu & Harold Chike Mba & Donald Chiuba Okeke & Uloma Jiburum, 2020. "Determinants of Vehicle Ownership in Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    10. Sadri, A. & Ardehali, M.M. & Amirnekooei, K., 2014. "General procedure for long-term energy-environmental planning for transportation sector of developing countries with limited data based on LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) and EnergyPLAN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 831-843.
    11. Tian Wu & Mengbo Zhang & Xunmin Ou, 2014. "Analysis of Future Vehicle Energy Demand in China Based on a Gompertz Function Method and Computable General Equilibrium Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-29, November.
    12. M. Yu. Ksenofontov & S. R. Milyakin, 2020. "The Influence of the Spread of Automatic Control and Sharing Technologies on Motorization Processes: Concept, Calculation Scheme, Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 254-263, May.
    13. Manuel Llorca & José Baños & José Somoza & Pelayo Arbués, 2017. "A Stochastic Frontier Analysis Approach for Estimating Energy Demand and Efficiency in the Transport Sector of Latin America and the Caribbean," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    14. Lescaroux, François, 2011. "Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 66-82, January.
    15. Llorca, Manuel & Baños, José & Somoza, José & Arbués, Pelayo, 2014. "A latent class approach for estimating energy demands and efficiency in transport: An application to Latin America and the Caribbean," Efficiency Series Papers 2014/04, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    16. Rashid Khan, Haroon Ur & Siddique, Muhammad & Zaman, Khalid & Yousaf, Sheikh Usman & Shoukry, Alaa Mohamd & Gani, Showkat & Sasmoko, & Khan, Aqeel & Hishan, Sanil S. & Saleem, Hummera, 2018. "The impact of air transportation, railways transportation, and port container traffic on energy demand, customs duty, and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of low-, middle-, and high -income coun," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 18-35.
    17. Lin, Boqiang & Du, Zhili, 2015. "How China׳s urbanization impacts transport energy consumption in the face of income disparity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1693-1701.
    18. Ahmat Khazali Acyl & Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken & Aubin Kinfack Jeutsa & Jean Marie Stevy Sama & Marcel Rodrigue Ewodo-Amougou & Jean Gaston Tamba, 2024. "Forecasting Petroleum Products Consumption in the Chadian Road Transport Sector using Optimised Grey Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 603-611, January.
    19. Rahman, Arief & Dargusch, Paul & Wadley, David, 2021. "The political economy of oil supply in Indonesia and the implications for renewable energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    20. Rahman, Arief & Richards, Russell & Dargusch, Paul & Wadley, David, 2023. "Pathways to reduce Indonesia’s dependence on oil and achieve longer-term decarbonization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1305-1323.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:16:p:3168-:d:258625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.