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Modeling Future Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in Indonesia at the Provincial Level

Author

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  • Qodri Febrilian Erahman

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia)

  • Nadhilah Reyseliani

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia)

  • Widodo Wahyu Purwanto

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia)

  • Mahmud Sudibandriyo

    (Chemical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Depok 16424, Indonesia)

Abstract

The high energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the road transport sector in Indonesia are mainly caused by the use of passenger cars. This situation is predicted to continue due to the increase in car ownership. Scenarios are arranged to examine the potential reductions in energy demand and CO 2 emissions in comparison with the business as usual (BAU) condition between 2016 and 2050 by controlling car intensity (fuel economy) and activity (vehicle-km). The intensity is controlled through the introduction of new car technologies, while the activity is controlled through the enactment of fuel taxes. This study aims to analyze the energy demand and CO 2 emissions of passenger cars in Indonesia not only for a period in the past (2010–2015) but also based on projections through to 2050, by employing a provincially disaggregated bottom-up model. The provincially disaggregated model shows more accurate estimations for passenger car energy demands. The results suggest that energy demand and CO 2 emissions in 2050 will be 50 million liter gasoline equivalent (LGE) and 110 million tons of CO 2 , respectively. The five provinces with the highest CO 2 emissions in 2050 are projected to be West Java, Banten, East Java, Central Java, and South Sulawesi. The projected analysis for 2050 shows that new car technology and fuel tax scenarios can reduce energy demand from the BAU condition by 7.72% and 3.18% and CO 2 emissions by 15.96% and 3.18%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Qodri Febrilian Erahman & Nadhilah Reyseliani & Widodo Wahyu Purwanto & Mahmud Sudibandriyo, 2019. "Modeling Future Energy Demand and CO 2 Emissions of Passenger Cars in Indonesia at the Provincial Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:16:p:3168-:d:258625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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